All the recent talk and rumors about companies interested in buying Vertex indicates how highly valuable Vertex is in the eye of biotech analysts.
how about biogen buys vertex, and then gilead buys biogen! win win!
these stories are always good for a short term pop but go nowhere
Definitely possible. Biogen has no in-house drivers, their Alzheimer's drug has questions (Lilly's might be better and is ahead in development). Both are located in Boston and they probably could reduce overlap and workforces. Both are working on anti-lingo for MS. Definitely better leadership at Biogen then Vertex.
Papa, note that Leiden also said the first clinical trials using Paroin's ENaC inhibitor with a Vertex corrector/potentiator is using orkambi with Ph 1037 (not 661/kalydeco). In the Q&A he mentioned that it will get Pharion's 1037 approved faster using Orkambi, in combination with PH 1037 because Orkambi is already an FDA approved drug, rather than conducting trials using it with 661/kalydeco. That does not sound like FDA continues to 'doubt' orkambi.
No papa. The residual function arm always had mono which makes sense because kalydeco Denver nof1 showed response mono so they need to show that like others on kalydeco combo will work better...the only difference is residual function isn't on label or currently using kalydeco.
J. Leiden: " The residual function arm always had in it both a placebo and ivacaftor monotherapy compared with 661 plus ivacaftor."
I was not aware of iva mono versus iva+661, to me it seems that FDA asked for that arm, given their doubt on Orkambi
Good call. Most all the senior analysts participated themselves for a change rather than sending surrogates. I expect a positive reaction from the market tomorrow, following the answers given by Leiden and his team, which certainly voiced optimism about the expected revenue growth to be generated by Orkambi,
Leiden clearly articulated Orkambi revenue will be financing the ongoing clinical trials in both CF an non CF drugs in development this year and next. While specific metrics about Orkambi sales during the first few weeks of the launch were not discussed, I did not sense that there was any denials or unexpected delays from health insurers paying for the care of 508dd CF patients in the U.S. who are being prescribed Orkambi since the launch less than one month ago. That's good news for CF patients and VRTX investors
Unfortunately, CFers are facing a two-tier system in the U.S. Those covered by insurance are having no issues and already on Orcambi. Those covered by Medicaid aren't and it sounds like many of the State's aren't even going to consider the issue for months when they meet to review the drug. Vertex said there's a high % covered by state programs...so the question is what is Vertex doing to get those CFers access to Orcambi through the state programs?
Well it is a Finance board, so talking about SP is completely appropriate. And I don't think anybody here thinks that getting any improvement to CF patients is a bad thing!
But Vertex flopped w/Incivek and for those around a long time, cast your mind back to Epilepsy, RA, Flu, HCV partnership etc....For the number of scientists at VRTX they do not have a promising pipeline or track record. Also for a company with 1800 people, they are not all needed for CF. So what is the strategy....that's what people are asking. Keep in mind, many of the 'Vertex critics" you mention are CF doctors treating patients and they are not happy with the cost of these drugs and the pressure it puts on families (and insurance companies...let's face it the costs are passed through in some form to everyone else). I've made my money on VRTX but will step back for a while until they have a better story. This is an investor board so I like to read posts that give the good and bad of potential investments.
So, IMO management has two reasons for currently only talking about CF.
First, with the Orkambi price tag they want to emphasize to society as a whole that Vertex is a CF company devoted to addressing the unmet needs of CF patients, both those not currently served by the company and those who are and can benefit from even better drugs. Thus the North Carolina deal.
Second, the CEO is taking a more traditional Pharma approach to talking about his pipeline. Established companies who fund themselves with product revenues limit for competitive reasons their public discussion of what they have in their labs and clinics. No revenue biotechs need to excite investors who are the source of their funding and so talk earlier and more about their research. Mr. Leiden is playing it more close to the vest. Whether this is just smart or a way to manage his image time will tell. He certainly does make a good presentation, but then so did Carly Fiorina at HP before she screwed things up so royally.
What I get more interested in is Why the company hasn't said Anything about the two annual meeting resolutions that did not go management's way. May be this week will provide some answers but for now they just look like petulant, possibly passive aggressive children.
Finally, for those who are so concerned about Vertex being only a CF company I offer this thought: It is only possible to have a Second or Third or so on successful product when you have a sustainably successful First product and Vertex is rightly attending to that absolute precondition.
Papa, it's certainly your right to criticize the company anytime you like. I agree that the company needs to achieve timely approvals of the rest it's pipeline to deliver sustained growth and profitability for shareholders. However, it's not 'too late' for such progress and the VRTX pipeline now will have the funding needed without further dilution (unlike GLPG) to develop these drugs. I guess one would like as a shareholder a smooth predictable flow of clinical trials to insure one's investment. As evidenced by the slowing growth at BIIB on Friday, it's never easy or smooth for the most successful companies. Perhaps at next week's Q2 conference call we will get more information about the timing and progress for clinical trials in both CF and non CF assets at VRTX. as well as the projections for growth from Kalydeco and Orkambi.
If VRTX various projects in oncology, influenza, spinal cord injury, Huntington's, chronic MS, as well as it's next generation CF treatments start clinical trials over the next 12 months, I believe that the long term growth plans expected from management will, eventually be successful. It just takes one or two blockbusters to make it to the top tier of companies in pharma. Any success in it's pipeline of drugs offering breakthroughs in such difficult to treat to treat conditions will likely continue VRTX growth. In the meantime, I enjoy the moments like this where VRTX has delivered a success that means so much to CF patients and their families, as well as to long term shareholders as ourselves, and is just in the first innings (to use the baseball analogy) of the development of this market.