Nice to read well thought out info and analysis on VRTX. If approved before July 05, how high do you think shares will move? $135? $140? Any insight to this, as it is an investment, would be very helpful.
Rojo, congratulations and thank you for your astute observations and reporting of the progress of the many clinical trials underway at VRTX and the progress being made on so many fronts. Yesterday's ADCOM results should translate into an early FDA approval for Orakambi before the July 5 deadline, leading to earlier than anticipated market launch and revenue stream for VRTX. The cash flow from Orakambi will be the catalyst to initiating clinical trials in both the earlier stage CF drug candidates as well as the non- CF drug pipeline at VRTX. When the analysts start to give value to these earlier stage assets, beyond the billions about to be realized from the approval of Orakambi, the price targets and the PPS of VRTX will move significantly higher. I echo your Congratulations to our friends, the dedicated VRTX longs you mentioned on this message board, and especially to the CF community who stand to benefit most from the success achieved at yesterday's meeting!
Please just go away. CRBP isn't working on CFTR Modulation, they have a phase 1 anti inflammatory drug. That isn't going to solve anything for CF patients, therefore it won't take anything from VRTX since CFers would be taking BOTH drugs at the same time.
She'll start talking to you again in July when the actual approval comes through. :-)
As the saying goes, a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. Investors ought to keep it in mind while weighing hot biotech stocks.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) is a case in point. The shares jumped Wednesday after a positive recommendation the day before from a Food and Drug Administration advisory panel. This makes it likely Vertex will win approval for a new cystic fibrosis treatment within the next two months.
Vertex's older cystic fibrosis drug, Kalydeco, treats a rare form of the disease and fewer than 2,000 U.S. patients. The new drug, Orkambi, would expand the treatable U.S. population by another 8,500 patients. It has the look of a blockbuster.
Analysts estimate revenue could hit $6 billion by 2019, up from $580 million last year. Thanks to such heady expectations, Vertex's shares are up about 90% over the past year and the company's market value has more than tripled since the start of 2013.
The gains have the stock trading at a multiple of estimated forward sales above 18 times. Of course, this would come down significantly should hopes for Orkambi prove well founded.
That isn't a given. And investors are putting a lot of stock in the future, especially since the company isn't profitable. In fact, Vertex has made an annual profit just once in its 26-year history, reflecting its emphasis on pursuing growth.
Plus, while the company has a track record of successful product development, there are always risks with new drugs. Orkambi's price is one.
Analysts at J.P. Morgan(JPM) project an annual wholesale price for the drug of $287,000. While that is lower than the $311,000 price of Kalydeco, pharmacy benefits managers are balking at such price tags.
An Express Scripts(ESRX) executive, for example, referred to the burden on payers as "extraordinary" in a recent interview with The Wall Street Journal
Vrtx will be up about fifty points. Between now and July ,when the final word comes down. If approved it will go to the moon, if not crash and burn to $80. I think my prediction will be much more accurate than that blow hard Cramer. Unless it goes up at least $25 today. Blow hards prediction yesterday.
He said it will go up at least $25 if approved. Today he says,well that was no surprise. Everyone knew it would b approved. It had to be approved. Does this guy even remember what he had for breakfast.
Cramer on CNBC just now. David Fabor just asked him about VRTX. Fabor, not up as much as you said it would be? He instantly changes subject and starts talking about railroads. What a big mouth blowhard.