this has been my strongest concern for quite some time (years!):
wonder when they will bring more compounds to the clinic. The cancer candidates seem to be locked up in phase I and do not really fit Leiden's strategy to focus on orphan drugs.
i hope you all have a very bright future! That said, from a SP perspective I'll get back in when it's 80-100. Strong headwinds ahead like the growing outrage over the costs of these drugs along with the fact that Vertex is still a one trick pony. Add in the current market downturn (especially Bio) and I don't see the current market cap as being sustainable. I know Vertex well, worked there and know a lot of people still there. Big concerns around their failure to advance anything else but CF while the SP and poison pill made them too expensive for M&A.
Congratulations, MB! Crossing fingers for you. Our 3 month supply is being Fed Exed as I type this message. Insurance was a SNAP! Doctors did NOT wait for a 3 month appointment...our clinic initiated the whole process. Less than 2 weeks from order to shipping...like we hit the "EASY" button.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Its been a long hard battle but today my wife's first dose of Orkambi arrived. $64k worth of drugs were overnighted and she takes her first pill today after morning treatment. I have been a shareholder for a long time and it was hard to watch Kalyedeco happen and she couldn't take it. Now being double delta 508 our time has arrived for new treatment. Insurance really didn't cause much of a delay. It exciting times from a personal level. Fingers crossed for a very positive reaction to the drug.
FWIW, Smurph 3 posted this morning on Yahoo 'market pulse' blog for VRTX the following data likely taken from IMS prescription data tracking service:
"Orkambi scripts in second week of launch were 145, up from 14 prior week"
Thanks Verity. Good to know that CF doctors are prescribing Orkambi ASAP, and not waiting for routine appointments to start their 508dd patients on this treatment. Hopefully their medical insurance is approving the treatment quickly after it is prescribed, without too much red tape.
I would guess that with the release of orkambi, there would be quite a few doctors visits that weren't in the normal schedule.That's just trying to put myself in the shoes of somebody that needs this drug.
You will likely get a number on July 29 from the company during it's Q2 conference call. Initial Orkambi prescriptions are being given to patients at their normal scheduled follow up visits to their CF clinics, so I anticipate that if the visits occur routinely on quarterly basis, most patients will be getting prescriptions in the first 6 months, and the only limiting factor will be processing paperwork for insurance approval, which may drag out the actual approval process a bit longer, especially for Medicaid patients who have more bureaucracy to deal with. In one year, most US 508dd CF patients will be on Orkambi, and EU regulatory approval for Orkambi by year end will allow EU CF patients to start getting treatment next year as well.
I would assume there has been a fairly rapid uptake of Orkambi in the US. With a known patient population eager to start treatment with orkambi, the only hold up would be insurance, and I'm sure most insurance issues were worked through with Kalydaco use. Does anybody here have numbers on prescriptions filled?
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Lets see. In the last 18 months VRTX has gone from ~$74 a share to $130 as of today. I would say the "risk" was WELL worth it for me lol. I have owned since $35 / share. Its ALL reward at this point....and more to come.
The price action last week suggests that the stock has been undergoing a process of being accumulated by stronger hands. We will be less likely to see fear motivated selling or much immediate term large scale profit taking. This does not mean there will be no sellers but that it will be more difficult to pry stock from investors without paying up.
Now that the mkt has opened, I notice 1594 Jul 135 calls is the largest number to expire today. The next highest are 879 Jul 130's.
Barron's on online article yesterday about Vertex was released about the time the stock made most of it's upward move yesterday. Perhaps today's early move up is follow through on yesterday's move up in price thanks to that article's remarks about orkambi earnings for H2 2015 more likely to beat analyst's revised estimates. VRTX is now being judged by the growth in it's revenues and earnings as it turns profitable on a sustained basis. Take over speculation may also be a factor but the timing of the Barron's article seems to be the current catalyst for the move up in price.