liked the company back then in 2005
and now in as its price close to 52-week low
=== Earlier this year Jefferies and Credit Suisse, among other analysts, issued positive calls on this company, each calling for an impressive upside of close to doubling.
Thanks for the info and suggestion. I will take a look. Nevertheless, I believe the management should discuss these development in detail in their quarterly reports as well as in their conference calls and presentations. Many of us do not have a clue what is going on unless the management informs us. Again thanks for your response.
Go to clinical trials.gov website and type 'VX' in searchbar. and count the number of clinical trials either recruiting patients or about to start. Management probably not crowing about the possiblities until the results of trials are in but many late stage cf trials with vx661 and 371 and influenza vx 787 and pain (a trial underway to treat chronic pain from OA) with interim or final results due this year and early next year. Spinal injury and numerous oncology trials underway as well. They are clearly quietly building a large number of potential blockbuster breakthrough treatments and not sitting idly by. The stock market is in correction this year and analysts are lowering price targets on all pharma ( look at GILD PE ratio). As the analysts see progress in the clinical trials, the same analysts will raise PT as they give potential value to drugs in development. This means once again being patient as a long term investor.
VRTX has over 1800 employees and its only drug treats CF . I don not detect the management having much enthusiasm about any of its other few drugs in the pipe line. Out of over 1800 employees, how may of them are scientists? How many of them work with and assist scientist in their research for new drugs? Why there are not any progress in new areas? What are the scientists who are not working on CF doing?? Surfing the internet all day? I would like someone help me understand what is going on. Apparently investors do not like what they see and are damping the stock!
I disagree with you on the populace has the right to demand the best care available. This may be true on paper but the reality is that care in the UK is not so good.
I agree that Orkambi will ultimately be approved by NICE after they receive the discount.
NHS is paying for Kalydeco in the CF gating mutations, as is the rest of the EU, and Canada and Australia, after each country's equivalent of NICE successfully negotiated a discounted price. The same will eventually happen with Orkambi and it's successors currently in development (e.g. 661/770 and future combinations of correctors and potentiators) that represent breakthrough treatment in the underlying cause of CF in the various mutations. The MP's can respond to their voting constituents by asking NHS officials accept the CF Trust's proposal to allow access of 508dd CF patients in the UK to being prescribed Orkambi while NHS officials continue negotiations with Vertex on a compromise price to save lives of the young CF population in the UK and get more data on the long term benefits of Orkambi as it is used on patients in the UK from the CF registry. The UK is not a third world country like Bangladesh and can make the lives of CF patients a priority. The CF patient population deserves access to these new breakthrough drugs as they become available. The mandate of the NHS is to not choose less effective treatments because they are less expensive to treat illness. The mandate is to provide current medical care within budgetary constraints, which can be accomplished by negotiating pricing to provide that treatment. Health care administrators in the developed world have the responsibility ask for additional government funding if needed to provide better care for the population. The voting populace has the right demand the best care available.
It is not as simple as writing to your MP. The UK is the cheapest of the EU nationalized health care systems. You can die in the UK waiting for treatment. I am sure NICE cares about CF patients. But they look at the cost and say no. The reality is that unless the UK wants taxes to go up, somebody has got to say no.
Do you think Orkambi is available to patients in Bangladesh, a very poor country. No. They have made their choices.
VRTX refusal to issue forecasts for sales of Orkambi has contributed significantly to investors uncertainty. Highlighting potential drop-out rates for patients on Orkambi has confused investors, too. Next CC with quarterly sales of Orkambi in April may bring some clarity. Until then I expect more volatility in sp.
CF Trust in UK responding to denial of Orkambi by NICE
As the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) opts not to recommend the gene-specific medicine Orkambi to NHS England, while acknowledging the clinical benefits of the drug, the Cystic Fibrosis Trust has put forward a solution that could speed up access and evaluation.
Orkambi has been shown to increase lung function and significantly reduce infection and hospital stays for those carrying two copies of the most common mutation of the cystic fibrosis gene, F508del, and in today’s draft decision NICE finds the treatment to be effective and important for managing cystic fibrosis, but uncertainty around its long-term impact and its high cost means it cannot recommend the drug.
The Trust has proposed a solution whereby Orkambi could be provided to all who need it while further evidence is collected on its long-term clinical impact using the UK Cystic Fibrosis Data Registry.
Ed Owen, Chief Executive of the Cystic Fibrosis Trust said: "It would be ethically unforgiveable if people with cystic fibrosis were treated like pawns in a bigger battle between the NHS and Vertex over price and longer term impact. But there is a solution that requires the NHS in England to work with Vertex to provide access to Orkambi and enable the UK Cystic Fibrosis Data Registry to elucidate its value more clearly over time.”
In a letter to Life Sciences Minister George Freeman MP today, Ed Owen urges intervention to support the Trust's plan, while the Government is currently looking at new arrangements to accelerate access to medicines for those that need them.
Write to your MP
Use this letter to ask your MP to ask the UK Government to support the Trust’s solution, granting access to the drug for those who would benefit, while assessing the longer-term impact of Orkamb
another case of entire countries refusing to pay for hi price drugs. Japan rejected some form of a ALXN Soliris drug about 3 weeks ago.
Remember the BO Care debate around death panels? That's the choices that Japan and the UK are making for their citizens.
UK rejects the Vertex's CF medicine( heard on Bloomberg). Yahoo is inept, no wonder, but Google does not have anything on this either....
I always want to buy VRTX, I had it when it was above 120, and when you sell at the hi prices, you always think it's a steal when it's this low.
My big concern is not the volatility. It is 2 things.
One, there are a few companies working on CF treatments. I don't keep track of them, but sometimes there an obscure development from someone that might affect VRTX down the road.
Two, and I think this is the main issue, the analysts have been aggressively reducing the EPS est for both this yr and next. While VRTX is still very attractive at the current EPS est, what if that number continues to shrink?
For those 2 reasons, I am still on the sidelines.
Looking at the chart, it seems like it going to consolidate at a lower level sub 80, as VRTX has been in a downward direction for a long while now. I wouldn't touch it for a while.