How funny Cramer and opp has been for th last 3 days been pumping the re tailors to buy VRTX.
Wow VRTX missed on the trial. I guess Cramer and Opp was just unlucky pumping days before a miss on trials.
Sounds to me they just found a subset of patients ( 18) who will benefit from the drug and are planning to submit a label expansion for them.
John, the one you heard was reported yesterday by CNBC quoting Oppenheimer's call. The BofA call was released this morning before open. It is very likely a call made by Rachael McMinn. She is an expert in Vertex.
I briefly overhead on CNBC while I was working on something else that there was an expectation of 40% pop on positive clinical data next year. I am not sure if this is the same as what you are mentioning.
DFC, you are right. The results from VX-661 + Kalydeco trial for CFers with G551D in one allele and F508del in the other allele will also be reported soon. If the in vitro result is translated in clinic, it will be spectacular. A paper says 72 % of 551 CFers have F508del on the other allele.
recent calls cramer told viewer to buy MU at 23.35 now it's down 3 dys ago to viewer to buy ALU at $ 4.60 now it's down.
This summer cramer said buy amd $ 4 and yesterday told viewers to sell at $ 3.58
bottom line cramer is a tool that pumps a high priced stock so the smart money can get ut and the cheer in the dumb money
Sentiment: Strong Buy
"The [global opportunities] I quoted was originally from the CFO Ian Smith two CC ago"
I do not recall that . Good info.
At least someone at vrtx mgt is sane. It sounds like what Stuart was talking about was his own view and not the whole of VRTX mgt.
The [global opportunities] I quoted was originally from the CFO Ian Smith two CC ago. He was speaking of VX-135. He can do the algebra.
Suppose that Vertex price VX-135 at 5000 per treatment. I know it is outrageous, but it can happen if more than 0.5% of 170 million worldwide Hep C patients decide to treat each year. It will take more than 200 years to treat all of them and newly infected at this slow rate.
$5 K x 170 M x 0.005 = 4250 M
If VX-135 is priced at 10 K per treatment, the potential sales can reach 8.5 Billion.
Japanese and S. Koreans would be happy to pay this price. In a few years Chinese can afford to pay.
The fact that Vertex is pursuing VX-135 development indicates to me that VX-135 is safer, more efficacious than Incivek (and pangenomic). That is what we need globally. J&J really need VX-135 because Simeprevir when used with IFN + RBV cannot cure Q80K mutation in GT 1a (I think that that is why they bought the global right to Incivek) .
"CCO is placing his bar above Sofosbuvir. VX-135 does not have to be superior to Sof in every respect."
I totally agree with you and I was annoyed when I read the CCO's comment in the transcript of the conference. The question that remains is that when he is saying it is "crystal," have the rest of the management agreed with the 90% bar he talked about or did he just come up with that on his own without doing much thinking.
My fear is that the management may have decided that if a drug does not at least match the efficacy of competing drugs, that it is beneath them to mess with it. Of course I hope I am wrong.
CCO is placing his bar above Sofosbuvir. VX-135 does not have to be superior to Sof in every respect.
" Even if the SVRs turn out to be less than 90% and prices are discounted,"
In regards to less than 90% efficacy, it looks like Stuart Arbuckle drew a line in the sand about less than 90% efficacy unless he misspoke. here is what he said:
"I think the hurdle rate for 135 is crystal. You've got to have SVRs that begin with 90. You've got to be treating patients in 12 weeks or less. You've got to be really convenient to give and you've got to be very tolerable. So I think the bar that we've got to get over is very high, but at least it's crystal clear. I think it would be nice to have as well, would be if you had a regimen, which was pangenotypic. So if you could hit on all of those things, then I think you've got a regimen, which can be competitive in all over the world."
I wanted point out that global opportunities for [VX-135 + Daclatasvir] and [VX-135 + Simeprevir] are enormous. Even if the SVRs turn out to be less than 90% and prices are discounted, they can generate multibillion dollars for Vertex, J&J, and Bristol. Analysts and the market do not assign any value to pangenomic VX-135. That does NOT mean that VX-135 has no value.
Anecdotally drug works. Disease may be subtle initially but it does progress and patient later in life are developing bronchiectasis, so nice pool of patient that could use 770 for a long time.