Vertex is borrowing $300M at an interest rate of 7.2%. The purpose for this loan is said to be related to strengthening financial position:
[[ The credit agreement is intended to strengthen our financial position as we invest in our key development programs in cystic fibrosis and in research for future medicines, including potential collaborations to support priority programs. ]]
Vertex may need funds for supporting Phase 2 trials of reversing, and blocking AIDS using caspase-1 inhibitor, VX-765.
Is a joke. Rated VRTX a sell when it was trading in high 50's, low 60's. Now that it is in the upper 90's it rates it a hold. A very good rating system if you love losing money!
Since release of TRAFFIC/TRANSPORT data, analysts have been modeling a discount on the 809/770 pricing and still predicting peak annual sales averaging 7 billion worldwide (and it could be more since these are hypothetical projections). Long term efficacy data regarding decreased rates of infection and hospitalization, as well as slowing the progressive loss of pulmonary function will be a important factors in getting better pricing from payers. If data coming from VX 661/770 Phase 2 trials currently underway shows better improvement in absolute FEV-1 compared to TRAFFIC/TRANSPORT, the stock will get higher valuations seeing the likelihood of better pricing for the eventual use of 661/770 in 508d homozygotes and eventually in the 508d heterozygotes when combined with second generation correctors.
I think the key is price will be dependent on FEV1, not adoption. They simply can't charge as much for the combo as they would have if they had achieved 6%.
It will be interesting to see what impact this will have on Kalydeco mono therapy pricing.
some time ago JPM had an estimate on VRTX share price after positive combo results. If I remember correctly it was about $100 on 3% FEV1 and about $150 on 6% FEV1. Now that we know that the combo FEV! is about 3% the current share price supports the JPM prediction. However, a correlation of FEV1 and share price would suggest that sales of combo is dependent on FEV1. But does the number of patients using the combo really depend on FEV1? I guess not, once approved CF patients will use the combo, no matter what the FEV1 number is. Having said that, what is a realistic share price to be expected on approval?
Usual pullback with VRTX has been 10-20% from peak within 2-4 weeks after big moves. We could see this amplified if there is large market correction that occurs simultaneously.
Profit-taking ahead of market downturn and increasing instability will affect entire biopharma sector, most especially those that have had a very nice recent increase. Keep an eye on the sector indices.
PCD or immotile cilia syndrome is another genetic disease and lung manifestations are exactly like CF. In fact my major worry about VX 809 and VX 770 trial was that a significant CF patients has PCD as well. Trial turn out to be okay and I think VRTX should take a shot at this indication with VX 770 and VX 809 and if by good luck we show benefit, you are looking to add another 25000 plus patients in USA only. PCD has a foundation and it is an orphan disease and fits with Dr. Jeff Leiden criterion. I wish my post can be forwarded to VRTX chief scientist.
It will be nice to have input from VRTX leadership regarding AIDS and VX 765 potential. They should give us pipe line update especially about VX 509. I have not heard about MRI and synovial joint biopsy trial results nor I have seen any publications? Look at SLXP, how they have grown from a 1 B company to a 9 billion company. I have posted couple of years ago that I wish VRTX acquires SLXP and sells Incivek through their gastroenterology sales team. Just having revenues from CF is repeating mistake of the past i.e Hep C.
Consider the possibilities: At a minimum the above article suggests the possibility of using VX 765 in every HIV infected patient. VX 765 would prevent the the infected patient's self destruction of it's own CD4 T cells that seems to naturally occur in response to HIV infection. Furthermore, it would prevent the emergence of resistance to ARV drugs, and thereby enhance the effects of ARV therapy. Lastly, it may prevent the inflammatory complications of long term ARV therapy which include premature aging and death due to heart disease and dementia. This would be an incredible step forward in the treatment of HIV worldwide. Another first to market opportunity for Vertex with incredible benefit to a large and suffering population worldwide.. It could reduce health care costs overall by preventing the emergence of HIV resistance requiring changes in ARV treatment, prevent the development and need for treatment of the long term complications of ARV drugs (heart disease and dementia) and could be part of a treatment that actually eradicates the latent HIV reservoir in patients being treated for a potential cure for HIV infection.
announcing 2nd Phase positive results on Liver Cancer (NASH) results. Currently trading around $9. Remember ICPT? Same will happen to CNAT. Mark this!
this is a huge opportunity! has the potential to outshine sales from cf franchise,
absolutely not priced-in in the current share price.
From an article posted on the Gladstone Institue web site:
Once the scientists discovered this key process, as described in Nature, they began to investigate how the body senses the fragments of HIV’s DNA in the first place, before alerting the enzyme caspase-1 to launch an immune response in the CD4 T cells. To identify the so-called DNA sensor, the scientists found a way to genetically manipulate CD4 T cells in spleen and tonsil tissue. In doing so, they discovered that reducing the activity of a protein known as IFI16 inhibited pyroptosis, explained Zhiyuan Yang, PhD, a Gladstone postdoctoral fellow who is one of the paper’s two lead authors.
“This identified IFI16 as the DNA sensor, which then sends signals to caspase-1 and triggers pyroptosis,” says Kathryn M. Monroe, PhD, the Science paper’s other lead author, who completed the research while a postdoctoral fellow at Gladstone. “We can’t block a process until we understand all of its steps—so this discovery is critical to devising ways to inhibit the body’s own destructive response to HIV. We have high hopes for the upcoming clinical trial.”
The Phase 2 trial—which will test an existing anti-inflammatory’s ability to block inflammation and pyroptosis in HIV-infected people—promises to validate a variety of expected advantages to this therapy. For example, by targeting the human body, or host, instead of the virus, the drug is likely to avoid the rapid emergence of drug resistance that often plagues the use of ARVs. The anti-inflammatory may also provide a bridge therapy for the millions without access to ARVs, while also reducing persistent inflammation in HIV-infected people already on ARVs. Many suspect this inflammation drives the early onset of aging-related conditions such as dementia and cardiovascular disease. By reducing inflammation, the drug might also prevent expansion of a reservoir of latent virus that hides in the body where it thwarts a cure for HIV/AIDS
Sure looks like it is tanking right now....oh wait nvm its up $2.60 today alone, about to break $100. Better cover!!!!!!!
Nothing better during Independence week than that sweet smell of BBQ and Shorts Burning on VRTX!
Reward the science not the pessimism and the hope for meaningful treatment for real sufferers of CF.
Sentiment: Strong Buy