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AT&T, Inc. Message Board

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  • Reply to

    net neutrality

    by gigmbwng Feb 24, 2015 9:58 AM

    The problem is AT&T DOESN'T have cash and why it is going to have to issue debt to even fund the recent spectrum purchase and two small Mexico acquisitions. Maybe if AT&T backed out of DTV AFTER Title II was announced..... Judging immediate market reaction might be a false indicator too.

    Yes, I noted in another post VZ dumped its final mile to Frontier and that included FiOS connections. If you can deliver ++1Gbps using Huawei's 4.5G technology to 100,000 connections in a sq. kilometer then you don't need the final mile fiber, just the proper backbone infrastructure. Broadband over mobile delivery using properly spaced fiber backbone with the small cells will be the ticket. Much of the game now is fighting for market share. Smart phone penetration is pretty high in the U.S. BUT the mobile bandwidth is grossly inadequate. Those who deploy it first will capture market shares. A joined Comcast TWC could deploy small cell over their networks a become a mobile player overnight. VOIP anyone? Same goes for Google. With small cell techs racing to market, someone like Google AMONG MANY OTHERS, could run 20 parallel fiber trunks through the biggest urban markets (Phoenix, AZ for example) and deploy small cells every other kilometer and become a bundled mobile ISP, talk (VOIP), text and TV company to the sixth largest market in the U.S. Similar capex game changers applied to all the large markets. VZ captured 4G when it was the leading deployer and holds 60% of the market. AT&T is barely covering its dividend commitment at 97% of free cash flow. Take note an article about AT&T wireless being down something like 17% YOY when you remove the spike in new iPhone sales being booked. Accounting method change allows for AT&T to reflect all the income up front from an iPhone even if the sale is on customer installments.

    I would be more curious about how a Google or a Comcast gets their hands on spectrum beyond white space. MVNO with Sprint or TMUS needed.

  • Reply to

    net neutrality

    by gigmbwng Feb 24, 2015 9:58 AM

    small: thanks for your extensive post. questions: 1) if the DirectTV deal is blocked then T would have tons of non-invested deal cash to continue dividend and build out 4gl even further...so shouldn't the stock rise, at least in the near term? 2) didn't VZ just dump a lot of their traditional business and some 4gl to Frontier? maybe the game has moved past consumer and in the USA will be b2b enterprise. appreciate your response, I am just trying to figure this complex prob out.

  • No doubt not many. That said, there are still folks who can profit from working options on a chart like T. Discount brokerages revolutionized the options trading markets and made it possible for retail traders to profit where only institutions used to. Cheers.

  • Reply to

    net neutrality

    by gigmbwng Feb 24, 2015 9:58 AM

    I wouldn't touch T with a ten foot pole at this point. They are in the middle of a price war and are cutting capex in order to avoid cutting the dividend just before they buy an AOL rerun.

    The only reason DTV deal is blocked is AT&T's U-verse TV is eliminating a competitor in every market U-verse TV operates. Market concentration as measured by the HHI used by the DOJ breaches acceptable concentration levels in every market U-verse TV (and DTV) is available. AT&T management has tried to pass it off like they are not comparable companies when in fact AT&T does have a decent presence in the pay TV market. Not a dominating position like wireless but nevertheless an existing pay TV market share. The combining of these two eliminates local consumer choice. Comcast-Time Warner deal on the other hand is structured WITH Charter Communication taking on any market overlapping assets to avoid any increased concentration is existing markets. This is a fact few realize. It is really a Comcast and Charter takeover and breakup of Time Warner where Comcast keeps the bulk of the deal.

    ATT needs to roll out best of market coverage and quality to gain market share and eps. VZ still holds over 60% of the 4G market. Pay TV will be a cheap convenience add on with the primary market being high bandwidth ISP. Investment shouldn't be curtailed. LTE-A and next gen 4.5G/5G will demand strong capex to keep up with competitor networks being deployed. TMUS for example bringing LTE-A to 23 of top 25 markets in U.S. during 2015. Sprint's horrible network coverage/quality is its biggest problem.

  • ...is it?

    oh my

  • A CD up to $250K is safer than buying AT&T just before it buys an AOL rerun in DTV.

  • Reply to

    net neutrality

    by gigmbwng Feb 24, 2015 9:58 AM

    thanks smalls. so, are you long T and/or would you buy in front of the expected title 2 announcement on thurs? wonder if fcc will then not allow direct tv deal. do you think that, strangely, would actually help T deliver stronger eps since their usa investments would be vastly curtailed?

  • VZ pretty much went wireless with the recent announcement they are selling pretty much the rest of their final mile network to Frontier Communications. With 4.5G and 5G designs coming that are capable of gbps delivery there may be little need for final mile fixed line. Fiber backbone with wireless final mile. The income would need to appear to be able to service the REIT debt which is already borderline for the company as a whole with 97% of FCF paid out to dividends. No lender in the world would agree to the REIT separation as it would go belly up without the wireless business. The smarter move would be for AT&T not to buy the AOL rerun in DTV in the first place!

    Cooki is smoking some high end stuff. ....and I thought the song with Kermit being stoned was funny. Cooki Monster lyrics are entertaining.

  • Reply to

    net neutrality

    by gigmbwng Feb 24, 2015 9:58 AM

    It is of great relevance with AT&T's pending $68B acquisition of a consumer pay TV bundler (DTV) losing its market moat. With full net neutrality enforced by Title II classification, ISPs are then unable to throttle the competition or charge a ransom to deliver a competitor's TV bundle at adequate bandwidth. Your market moat against competing OTTs is disintegrated.

    As for getting stays with expected lawsuits. Lawsuits are expected to be filed within 4-6 months and legal battle could take up to two years according to a couple reviewing the proceedings. A futile fight against the FCC and is just a stay of execution. Like I've said for months, DTV is an AOL rerun in the making. Filing of lawsuit is futile. FCC lost to VZ in a court fight and the major and minor opinions basically told the FCC they needed to invoke Title II. The FCC is only doing what the court told them they needed to do in order to enforce net neutrality. Telecoms won the battle but in doing so lost the war.

    International b2b is a good place to target but there is a lot of very strong competition building in that market. The best hope is IoT where even small home device makers to automakers contract with communications companies to provide internet connection. VZ to Vodafone will have something to say about that. VOD has the best global network arrangements bar none.

  • Its pretty clear Yellin will never let rates rise in her tenure. T at 6% is an absolute steal to park money for a few years.

  • Reply to

    net neutrality

    by gigmbwng Feb 24, 2015 9:58 AM

    red:
    thanks for your thoughts. i think the CEO indicated in the last cc that T was going to focus on b2b enterprise for future sales and profit growth in usa. if so, then what happens in consumer is of less relevance to T, even if title 2 is forced on industry. just my thoughts.

  • Reply to

    net neutrality

    by gigmbwng Feb 24, 2015 9:58 AM

    Hearing that "net neutrality" most likely will only apply (rebuffered, x ?) to U.S. Broadband

  • Reply to

    net neutrality

    by gigmbwng Feb 24, 2015 9:58 AM

    The 320 pages of new Govt. "internet" regs are complete and ready .. Obama/FCC won't let them be released to the public untill (?) ... well, you've got to pass it to see what's in it - just like your ObamaCare :- {

  • Turwood must be tough looking in the mirror and seeing what COUNTRY STUPID!!!! Looks like....

  • Moron you oh never...Just COUNTRY STUPID!!!!!

  • Reply to

    net neutrality

    by gigmbwng Feb 24, 2015 9:58 AM

    perhaps it doesn't matter. I understand T would sue and that a stay would be put in place...and it could take years to agree on the final wording of a rule. If so, shouldn't it be just business as usual for T and VZ? Or, does T divert investment to other nations?

  • Looks like the 34$ mark is going to be it. Rally time! ☺

    Sentiment: Hold

  • only need to be right once

    lol

  • fire the CEO !

T
34.56+0.06(+0.17%)Feb 27 4:00 PMEST

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