FTD is certainly the daddy rabbit of the industry. I'm holding till the split but am curious what will happen then...
I'm assuming most of the potential is cooked into the share price but I "feel" that FTD will run a bit after release. Nothing to base that on other than a feeling...hence the quotes.
Well you aren't .30 in the hole no more. UNTD will get into the 7.50 -8 range just on valuation FTD is a strong business I think we get the option to split our shares 50-50
I just got my first FTD order in for Mothers day I got it defrayed a bit by using a Groupon
OK, so the knowledge that FTD will be spun off in Sept/Oct is no surprise. So, let's guess prices? And while the FTD business seems promising to me, should I hold UNTD to get the first shares or just wait. Sadly, I'm about .30 in the hole right now. Sooooo:
1. Price FTD
2. 1 for 1?
3. What becomes of UNTD, both price and future?
I am going to try to make this plain as day for you--
Depreciation needs to be added back in, on an ANNUAL basis, gojg back say five years, to see just how much cash flow per share above the dividend UNTD generates. Depreciation reduces reported earnings per share, much as your mortgage interest deduction reduced your taxable income. Yet, to see if the dividend is sustainable, you must add back in the depreciation. Don't look at one quarter, or even one year if there was a large ONE TIME charge taken,m as that is not an ongoing representation of true cash flow.
UNTD can easily afford its dividend. They bought FTD to add a good, stable business to the mix. and when the market price the whole at too cheap a price (less than the value of FTD alone!) management decided that the only choice to maximize shareholder value was to spin our FTD. That makes 100% sense. I am not arguing that the other pieces are not stellar competitors in their field. They do, however, produce nice cash and require minimal amounts of continuing capital investment to maintain. As such, they have value to an acquirer and should be sold to the highest bidder so that they can grow. That UNTD is shopping their patent portfolio tells me that the pieces--other than FTD--are likely for sale, too.
That augurs well for continues increase in the stock price, until the end of summer/early fall (if the stock market generally holds up) when the spin occurs and other potentially shareholder enriching transaction occur.
Time will tell, but for me, UNTD has been doing things exactly as I would want them to, and I am richer because of it.
Again, how many millions of dollars were spent to buy FTD? Whatever that amount of money is was wasted if it is spun off/sold-I understand the point unlock shareholder value, but at the end of the dayUNTD tried to piece meal things together (unrelated businesses) to try and compensate for the sharply declining previously core business. It sounds like if they are going to try and sell patients and the businesses as pieces then they are disolving UNTD.
I am looking at Earning Per Share which right now is $0.41 and they are paying 0.10/qtr per share it doesn't take long to figure out that is 0.01/share left.
This should make anyone run for the exits:
GAAP operating income (loss) $ (14.9) $ 23.7 (163%)
Quarter Ended December 31, Year Ended December 31,
2012 2011 2012 2011
CASH FLOWS FROM OPERATING
Net income (loss) $ (12,453 ) $ 12,865 $ 12,542 $ 51,730
Note the losses. Cash burn, this company is poorly managed end of story. No well run company has declining businesses, goes out buys an unrealted company, realizes that was stupid, spends millions spinning it off (should have never bought in first place) then reports losses and pays a dividend that is almost 100% of EPS, thats just scratching the surface.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
So answer this: what is the dividend rate per share and what is the CASH FLOW per share at UNTD.
the reason to spin out FTD is to get rid of the conglomerate discount that prevailed on the shares UNTIL they announced the spin off plans. The pieces are worth more separated than together. FTD alone is worth $6 per share, and the rest of the pieces are worth $4, or could be monetized. The company seems to be planning to sell patents etc, so why not spin FTD and then find acquirers for the rest of the pieces. That would maximize shareholder value.
Obviously, the value lies in FTD shares to be spun off. Betting FTD will be one diamond pulled out of the falling house.
What was the point of Goldstein buying FTD if a couple years later he is going to spin it off? While UNTD have any stake in the spun off company? I guess the spin off will leave just the old #$%$ pieces of UNTD that were there before the millions were spent to buy STD. This companys management is really stupid, why buy something then sell it a couple years later. The business units within UNTD are all in decline as I have been saying/posting on here for years and no one seems to pay attention. Dividend is not supported at current levels, will be cut or eliminated unless bankruptcy is the plan? No smart business borrows money to pay a dividend they can't afford.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
I think FTD holds 95% of UNTD valuation. Its growing. Its profitable.
Everything else is in decline, although assets are treating as a declining cash cow.
Of course, the most important question: where does UNTD pps go? After spin-off, FTD may start to receive recognition and expand its PE. Thus, on spin-off day stock may hit $6.50.
Holding until the ftd spinoff and maybe beyond. Love the nice dividend while I wait. Would have bought more during the dip below 5.50 but all my cash was tied up in long-ish term investments. Frustrating when you miss an oppurtunity like that, but I still pleased with my original entry point.
And they raised guidance for the next Q.
People overlooked the fact that the miss on the bottom line was due to a ~$24M impairment charge. Non-cash and non-recurring