BTW, I've my LT positions from the summer of 2011. There are 3 retail sectors benefiting from the lower gas prices.. booze, cosmetics and sports !! Happy Investing.
Once again, I view this company as an off price retailer, their sales has nothing to do with weather or gun control etc. BGFV is similar to ROST a few years ago. The good sign I see in their numbers is that they crossed $1B sales mark in 2015. I still have my LT holdings and enjoying dividends. I am sure the baseball season in CA will help the numbers in Q2. Buy on dips, happy investing. If you have big money, own COLM.
I won't call this management team as conservative. I keep a record for all their quarter reports for the past 10 years. The chance for them to beat or miss their own forecast is 50-50.
As forecast, Q1 will be the only loss for the past 10 years. I am not sure if this is the only loss they have ever had. That gives me a giant warning. How could they be so messed up when the weather has finally turned the corner and the employment is very good? The fact that they hired consultants to look for opportunities and identify issues indicates they know there is little they can do to stabilize the business.
Thus, I won't be surprised if it dips to $8.5 or even lower.
As I mentioned in my previous posts, BGFV mgmt. is very conservative when it comes to forecasts and I see these as buying opportunities. It may open below 12 tomorrow am, some stops will be taken, then will come back above 12.75.
Good luck investing
They have been buying back for quite a few quarters.
I have the impression that, for whatever the reasons, the management want to give a very weak earning forecast for Q1. Note that $0.03/sh write off of the tax assets related to share-based compensation? Q4 average share price was much lower. It would be more appropriate to write off in Q4 instead of Q1. They also seem to ignore the favorable weather forecast for the next 2 weeks.
For 9 quarters, the management used bad weather as excuse for bad earnings. Now the weather has become neutral or even favorable and they still forecast awful earning.
My earning date purchases have always become disasters. Luckily, I was able to catch the low of the quarter for quite a few quarters. Maybe I will be able to buy again at under $9.
Yeah. It seems that they are forecasting an extremely weak margin for Q1, as the revenue is just slightly under estimate. On the other hand, the raise of dividend is puzzling. Why did they raise the dividend given such a weak forecast?
The snowpack is below average across all 3 areas in the sierra. cdecDOTwaterDOTcaDOTgov has tons of data. The water level in lakes/reservoirs is around 50%.
Since this dry spell came somewhat late, I believe BGFV should do well in Q4 and Q1. But Q2 is a big unknown. Since they won't talk about Q2 forecast in this ER, I bet the investors would be happy after the announcement. That's why I bought more this morning and have a much bigger open order in case it dips further.
I have a hard time thinking that the snow pack went down that fast. And, if it did melt, it went to some lakes and reservoirs.
But I'm just speculating.
Talking about speculation - a little sell off today - I actually look at it as a good sign. It's risen so much that, if earnings weren't spectacular, then it would have sold off. With some easing today, decent earnings will boost it.
We'll know more tonight and tomorrow.
That 125% was correct, i.e., in mid Jan, the sierra snowpack was above historical average on that day. But since then, little rain + hot weather change the picture.
I had heard that, in one section, the snow cover was 125% of the average snow covering. Maybe I heard wrong, or it was in a select area, or whatever.
But we may know something in a about 20 hours.
We don't know if the drought is over. If you take a look at precipitation numbers in S. CA, you can tell we are nowhere close to climbing back up, as 2016 numbers are basically the same as 2015 numbers. So for those 20M+ people, 2016 is another awful drought year. As you move north, the numbers look better. For example, bay area is slightly below average and the very northern part of the state is slightly above average.
My personal experience tells me BGFV's winter sport sell in Q4-15 and Q1-16 shall be above average. I just don't know if that has been fully reflected in the current stock price. What I am worrying is the sale for the next 2 quarters. The state has little precipitation in the past 5 weeks (which is supposed to be the wettest season of the year) and the temperature has been unseasonably warm or even hot (90F in LA and mid-to-high 50's in Sierra ski resorts). So the snow has been melting for quite a few weeks now. I am not sure how many ski resorts will still be opening in a month. But that isn't my main concern. The biggest concern is that the water level of the vast majority lakes/reservoirs in the state is still below norm and that may have negative impacts on summer water sport sale.
So I think I will be dumping all my shares if it breaches $15.
It's interesting that all these weather forecasts were making lots of noise 3-4 months ago that the strongest El Nino on record will bring above average precipitation to the west and way above average rainfall to S. CA. Well, what a forecast.