Earnings were fine, but the unusually warm weather seemed to pull it down for the pending quarter. The dividend augers well, but that seemed to be ignored. And, although guidance seemed to be a little on the low side, as demonstrated with the last quarter, they seem to be conservative.
We really need a few good quarters with good guidance. Maybe the divided increase, again, augurs well for this.
Does anyone have a thought about the Sports Authority bankruptcy? I would think that any closings near BIG 5 would help Big5, But a stronger competitor emerging from Chapter 11 wouldn't. And if one company is having trouble in this field, why isn't Big 5 having the same problems.
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What's your source of water data? Data from cdecDOTwaterDOTcaDOTgov doesn't support your claim. Maybe you are comparing data in 2/16 to that in 10/15. In that case, your argument may be correct. But that is a comparison between apple and orange.
Well, at least BOOT had a jump, although it was on an earnings pop.
I'm a little worried about bgfv. It's had a nice run. Yes, earnings and revenues should be doing well because the weather has finally turned, and there may be an uptick on gun sales. But will these really make much of a difference ? We've run up about 4 points, and I don't know if the news can be that good.
On the other hand, maybe the turn in the weather is easing long term concerns that there would be no sales for the next 50 years with a drought of 50 years. Maybe just eliminating this anxiety was enough, and little bump in earnings will provide some more momentum.
The snowpack is below average across all 3 areas in the sierra. cdecDOTwaterDOTcaDOTgov has tons of data. The water level in lakes/reservoirs is around 50%.
Since this dry spell came somewhat late, I believe BGFV should do well in Q4 and Q1. But Q2 is a big unknown. Since they won't talk about Q2 forecast in this ER, I bet the investors would be happy after the announcement. That's why I bought more this morning and have a much bigger open order in case it dips further.
I won't call this management team as conservative. I keep a record for all their quarter reports for the past 10 years. The chance for them to beat or miss their own forecast is 50-50.
As forecast, Q1 will be the only loss for the past 10 years. I am not sure if this is the only loss they have ever had. That gives me a giant warning. How could they be so messed up when the weather has finally turned the corner and the employment is very good? The fact that they hired consultants to look for opportunities and identify issues indicates they know there is little they can do to stabilize the business.
Thus, I won't be surprised if it dips to $8.5 or even lower.
Once again, I view this company as an off price retailer, their sales has nothing to do with weather or gun control etc. BGFV is similar to ROST a few years ago. The good sign I see in their numbers is that they crossed $1B sales mark in 2015. I still have my LT holdings and enjoying dividends. I am sure the baseball season in CA will help the numbers in Q2. Buy on dips, happy investing. If you have big money, own COLM.
I think the melt off and better weather is adding to some thought of better water levels.
I am a little surprised that the stock price is rebounding. I think the next year's comps might be tough given the shorter year comparison. And I was surprised that gun sales didn't give the company a little pop. The (very) minor cut back on stores does weigh a little, but increasing the dividend means that they believe that they are well positioned. I personally believe that their smaller stores, and the emphasis that customers have on sports apparel, bodes well - they have the right niche.
I could easily be wrong. But I have bet that I'm right.
That 125% was correct, i.e., in mid Jan, the sierra snowpack was above historical average on that day. But since then, little rain + hot weather change the picture.
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