I wonder where all these 2+ million shares coming from? It's not MM's taking all stop loss limits on a low volume stock, something else is going on. I bought in January when the soft numbers came ~12.50 and traded since then. But the volume that day was less than 1 mil.
Anyway, added some at $12.40 and then at $10.90. In 2012 January also I bought when it took a hit. But today's blood bath scares me. Any thoughts?
BGFV has been hit by weather 8 quarters in a row. I live in CA and I understand the weather impact on the first 7 quarters in this period. But this latest result puzzles me. Yes, we are in an extreme drought and most games in lake/river disappear. But it was just as bad last year. Besides, summer sport is not limited to lake/river. We also have ocean/beach. These are not my words, but the ones from the CEO last summer. In this later case, the warm weather this year is supposed to help.
They also quoted the outrageous gas price in CA. The price in CA is always at least 10-20% higher than the US average. This latest spike does increase the gap to 50-60% in S. CA only. But the spike didn't happen until very late in the quarter. And, even in S. CA, the price is not higher than what it was 1 year ago.
So, neither excuse can explain the flat y-o-y performance. The world cup may be a legitimate excuse. But, the employment is so much better this year.
It's obvious they are losing store traffic while their online service fails to pick up the slack. I am their customer. But so far I have not ordered anything from its web.
I am very disappointed by this result. The expected flat Q3 numbers don't help either.
Many of you think BGFV provides a good value at this price. Well, based on P/E and P/B, $11 is not cheap, comparing to the data we have for the past 5 years. If it drops under $9, I will add to my holding.
Everything Big 5 is on the quiet side, I personally like Big 5, economy isn't doing so hot so I can see the small decrease in sales but my god, did not expect this sell off. I see this above 12 soon, what about you guys ?
Saw Big 5 as one of the loss leaders today, and having been in this stock previously I took a look at ER.
Expected to see really horrible news, but didnt and the 25% drop seemed excessive.
Screw it, back in at $11.03 and I'll see what happens tomorrow.
Bought more shares initially than I probably should have, but I've bought BGFV previously when it got hammered for much better cause, and did ok.
I'm glad we are having this little discussion. This board is on the quiet side. Let's hope that this company can turn it around.
And maybe they can turn it around. They seem to have solid results on a consistent basis. Maybe there will be a nice event that bumps it up. In the meantime, the dividends are not insignificant (it's better than in a cd).
I too have owned this stock for a nice profit in the past. I've bought this in the low-teens/high-single digits and sold it in the mid-teens a couple times since 2010... I think I am going to go to the well one more time and buy down here around $10.70ish, and see if I can't get myself yet another 25-50% return. The quarter wasn't THAT BAD to warrant a 30% drop today.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I understand there are some reports that residents of Western Texas are concerned that recent planned military training exercises are a cover for a U.S. military takeover of Texas (you really can't make this up).
But this may be spurring arms sales. Big Five has a few (and only a few) stores in Texas, but a few more in neighboring New Mexico. Maybe they are seeing some increased sales due to this.
I think you have it well pegged. Maybe sales are sluggish; but Nike and UA (reporting tomorrow) seem to be doing nicely. I think the weather and gun sales events may be too late for the reporting quarter, but maybe some guidance will be helpful. Recent upward guidance may support this speculation on my part.
It certainly seems to be doing nicely. We'll see in a couple of days what is up.
For some reason they had Father's Day and July 4th last year too.
The lower gas prices should help, however.
And, UA came out with nice results today - they must have been selling their products somewhere - let's hope that bgfv was one of the places.
To be candid, the results and transcript was a little disappointing.
They said that last year's world cup inspired sales made comps for this year difficult, but what about the women's cup - I would have thought that would have inspired some sales. And I was hoping that golf and firearm sales might have ticked up, but that didn't happen (and they said that they are trending a little low for the first few weeks of July). And, not that its a real concern, but their long term debt has ticked up a small amount - I personally like a decreasing debt, even a little.
I will say that they may be spending their advertising money more efficiently, and trying different things, as they eliminated a mid week circular (although it impacted sales).
And they seem to be steady on profits. It's just not excessive, and any bump in the road could hurt. And, just maybe, they are poised to take advantage of some event that will help sales. Eventually, the weather will turn, and maybe they can take advantage.
and benj030285 's take on lower gas and more employment to give some motivation to buy a little more for father's day simply didn't work out. They said there was a spike in gas prices so far this year, although recent lower oil prices may be working some benefit into the future. Maybe if the stock price goes lower they will use some of their stock buy back money to buy stock at a lower price. Maybe the new board member will have valuable ideas that they will listen to and help. Maybe there will be some nice event that spurs sales. Maybe the economy and weather will put a little wind to their backs instead of headwinds. Maybe.
You are right, the results are disappointing, similar to Cabela's numbers. I'm not complaining, like I said I have half for LT and half for short term trade that I sold yesterday am. If it goes below 13.50, I will buy them back.
Good luck investing. Also keep SPWH on your radar.
At first blush, the 29% drop seems exaggerated.
The PR is a bit misleading, operating income net income. If you read the 10Q, net income was 2.6m, or 0,12c per share not the 0,15c they quote in the PR. Playing games like this in PR's scores no points with me. This is why I always read the 10Q after the PR.
Based on the low end of the consensus estimates for Q3 and Q4, annual earnings at 0,72c per share. At current price of 10,51, that's a forward P/E of ~15. The industry P/E is 17.8, which is a bit high.
I used the lower end of the consensus estimates to reflect the probability that revenues will be somewhat
weaker than expected throughout the remainder of the year, no reason to expect that the trend will change.
It seems obvious after yesterday's beating that everyone was looking for them to beat the earnings estimate. It's a strange game indeed. You really have to crunch the numbers to get some insight.
I have the same question in my mind. FINRA data shows the short sale today is pretty normal.
A few days back I post a message on this board saying that, among the last 8 quarters, 7 of them hint that Q2-15 should be good. The only exception is Q2-13. Since it's the only exception, I ignored it. That's a terrible mistake and I am paying a hefty price. In hindsight, I see a good connection between Q2-13 and Q2-15. In both cases, share price went up a lot before earning and we know what it means. But in many days, the gap between high and low is much wider than normal. This may indicate some major cool heads saw the risk in the coming ER and they were dumping.
Another link between these 2 quarters is that it's both down around $4, though today's drop is more dramatic in term of %.
The latest retail data may not be good. But sport wear is one of the few exceptions. Also, weather is generally favorable for the past 1.5 month. So I think BGFV shall be able to easily beat the expectation in Q2 and may give a upbeat Q3 guidance. The share price is pointing to the same direction. Can you think of anything that could surprise us in the wrong direction? Rent and compensation may be up. But the magnitude shall be very manageable.
Based on my personal (very) limited observation, the lines at Great America are noticeable shorter this year. That really puzzles me, as I don't think this has anything to do with the water usage limitation in CA. Do you have the same experience with other water-related games?
Thanks for enlightening me that we had Father's Day and July 4th last year, look like you are little #$%$ that the price didn't stay above the $15 mark on your few hundred shares. Try to understand the business model before you invest. On this particular one, keep half for LT and trade the other half for ST gain.. IMHO.
I apologize for being sarcastic. It's just that using a holiday for a reason for increased sales, when many compare results with the prior year (due to seasonal issues such as holidays), is not the best argument, at least in my opinion.
As a shareholder, of course I am disappointed that it didn't hold over 15. But I was surprised by the recent strength because there has been no real event to point higher. Maybe the weather. Maybe the uptick in the economy. Maybe the lower gas prices. Maybe higher Nike and UA sales. Maybe firearm sales. Maybe a recent addition to the board of directors. But some of these true speculation, and, if helpful to sales, won't be seen until the quarter after the one to which will be reporting.