Funding is extremely tight for miners these day, and even tighter for ones without a strong history of profitability. Just today, Maudore (you know, the ones that bought Sleeping Giant and Vezza) canceled the second half of their private placement due to "adverse market conditions".
I don't see the question as really "if" NAP can find funding. I'm pretty sure they can at some level. The question is if the can secure funding that won't cause shareholder to lose so much value that they'll come after the board with pitchforks, tar, feathers, and a lawsuit or two.
I have a feeling we will hear something regarding financing very soon. If you haven't already listen to it or read the transcript of the Q1 CC, it may address some of your other questions / concerns (i.e. production estimates). But really, financing is the big elephant and I don't expect NAP will say a word about that until it's wrapped up.
On the basis of the economic analysis, there should be no issue with funding. positive news on new shaft, higher than predicted PD prices. Now require the Mr Du Toit to step up..
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Too many things left open - funding? Projected future production rates etc, etc. Right now Silence is being taken as to mean willful bankruptsy, intentional, illegal.
So you think that the Q1 report essentially warns investors that the stock is going under, and it will give the inability to secure the additional funding as the excuse. What about the bigger picture - the new shaft coming on line and starting to produce? Forward production estimates should cancel out any negative 2nd Q earnings, and then some. Once the confidence in future production quanities is secured we are back on track with a rocket under our hinees. With this prospect, securing interim funding should present no issue at all. This company can go under intentionally, .unlawfully - Won't happen.
LOL@ octagon, to start, what a dumb #$%$ name, second, those idiots were shorting, never listen to firms, always do the opposite of what they say, they're always wrong.
Kudos if you can consistently realize profits trading a knife that bounces down the hill. When I use trading, I prefer to profit on upticks of an upward bouncing stock.
I've done better with mid-term investments on beaten down stocks, like APPL, X, HBH, and F all giving 4x to 12x. My first round with PAL was fine, too, Round two, not so fun. Though to your point, my average cost would have been significantly higher than it is (by 40-50%) had I not traded down somewhat.
Sure, I should have waited another week to sell the latest chunk of PAL and get another 10-15 cents. But I have no regrets moving 1/3 of PAL to SWC in the last couple months (avg. $11 SWC). It has already improved my sleep. I still have enough PAL to appreciate a buy-out bid if one does materialize. And if one doesn't, or if no other great deals or partnerships come, than I'll consider buying more when they have a summer BOGO sale.
I'm not sure of what good it does to speculate on what financial solutions would be the best, when we don't have any idea of what real world offers NAP has on the table.. It occurs to me that too much speculation in this area might actually hurt PPS and doesn't help NAPs prospects any, either.
These analysts know nothing about investment.
All they knew was to give Apple a $1500 target. LOL
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Big it is simple...
I have been trading PAL for many years now and I do a fair amount of trading almost daily. Not unusual to trade 2 to 6 times a day PAL alone...Been quite successful believe me or not, I cannot care less of trying to convince anyone here about that...
I have explained many times that it is essential to have a solid knowledge of the fundamental to really figure out what to do...Although, I trade often on TA basis with PAL and talk about RSI many times which is a very easy simple way to profit. I gives you a feeling for the right timing.
I was or had a long position until recently and was lucky to sell out around 1.40 and sold my trading account as high as 1.78 (posted my sales to Ivlarry a while back)...Because I knew that the financing was a dark cloud coming PALs way...If you read some of my posts you know.
Since then, I posted that I am gambling back on PAL assuming that PAL will find an acceptable financing for the remaining of Phase I and Phase II. Bought at 1.18 to 0.965 sold half at 1.17 to 1.2801 and the day after at 1.24 another lot etc etc bought back etc etc...How do you want to gamble if you do not know well the fundamental? You would not even know that it is a gamble and your trading will be too limited to really produce a large profit.
I elaborated few possible honest financial solutions regarding a direct loan or merger of partnership etc etc...You cannot talk about that without knowing the basic fundamental of PAL and read filings and presentation.
Trading is not easy and demand knowledge and technic, otherwise you are an easy prey. Look at what you did or Pacenet who is the perfect opposite indicator sadly.
If I may, I will give you my opinion about what you did here... You did not understand somehow that PAL is a trading vehicle no more no less...You can be long or trader but you have to understand this concept and really trade the pps. PAL belong is dynamic trading and it is not a stock that you buy and forget about it....
Thanks for posting this.
That chart of Chinese monthly Pt imports is interesting.
March and April imports were quite strong as they often appear to be for those months BUT if this trend continues into May I'm thinking that it could be a very positive sign since that would mean a string of 3 months in a row of healthy import numbers.
May of last year will be a tough comparison to beat but if it happens, things could get really interesting.
If the Chinese ever start 'investing' in PGM bullion (and jewellery could be a sort of proxy for that) , industry might find itself getting short on supply in a hurry.
I was going to pose that exact question to you an hour ago, but decided against it, then. But since you brought it up...
In multiple posts you explain that you are not long PAL and are just going for short term trading profits. So why get into details of Q2 profit models, or full year expense projections, or estimates of 2014 cash needs?
As you ask, "This is exactly where I cannot figure you out? All this numbers and a tiny amount of trading...why?" Maybe your trading isn't tiny, but the same question applies.
Then you understand that you cannot be more accurate, isn't it?
Even without any model you can figure out that PAL will have negative earnings in Q2 many here can tell you that. You are very low on feasible financing or solution beside this "bankrupt" theory? Why?
But, now what is your strategy about trading PAL? Are you buying selling what?
This is exactly where I cannot figure you out? All this numbers and a tiny amount of trading...why?
"For Q1 you had a revenue off about 5MM and a -0.01 loss if I recall and I have a revenue off less but a gain as high as 0.02."
I had -.01 a lot closer than your +.02 I don't recall if I had revenue or not, but it is earnings that matter for the general investor.
As for PD price I used the average so far for the qtr so far (from KITCO).
" All we can say is that PAL will have most probably negative earnings with a production between 33K to 37K oz at just under 600 cash ..."
That is precisely my assumptions. Could give you bracketed assumptions and a range of earnings. Really not that much different. Point is not to expect any Q2 meaningful operational positive cash flow to help keep them going.
Your "model" cannot be taken seriously all due respect.
Already your palladium price for Q2 is off almost 4% in my opinion....early estimate place palladium at 720/735 now and you are taking the 50MA which is illogical.
The proof is in the pudding, Bell, you as well as me, NEVER been close to what PAL released. For Q1 you had a revenue off about 5MM and a -0.01 loss if I recall and I have a revenue off less but a gain as high as 0.02. It is time to admit that we cannot be too precise...
It is not a simple matrix system that will give you a large probability. Too many unknown that can really change the whole picture. All we can say is that PAL will have most probably negative earnings with a production between 33K to 37K oz at just under 600 cash cost hoping that the rain will not cost as much? But the rain may reduce PAL effort to find some other source of surface ore...
Instead, I really would like to read some viable financing solutions and not referring to catastrophic event still unlikely.
Too much talk of reverse splits etc....I'm out sooner than later, just incase.