Those parts are cut+paste's from the 10-K (that's an annual report.) You really couldn't tell that language was pulled from a financial statement?
Indeed, zero. I said I was considering it. I have zero position either way right now. But it looks like a good risk/reward scenario.
I think this may be a good short for one of my accounts - but why don't you try to just have a factual dialog instead of questioning my motives? I'll certainly acknowledge if someone points out something I missed in the 10-K.
As far as the RE investments, the 10-K shows $165MM (see below cut and paste.) Even thought these were made recently and are probably valued close to book, and many of the projects started recently and won't be finished for another 3-4 years, let's give a 50% premium and say they're worth $250MM. Compare that to a 2.6 Billion company valuation, and over 1 billion in debt, $194MM in dividend payments due this year or the $96MM in cash interest expense due this year. Generously this is 10% of the overall company. Anyone that thinks New Valley as a whole or DE alone is worth north of $2B (as someone else posted) simply is making up numbers and not doing math.
As of December 31, 2014 , our real estate investment business held interests in joint ventures recorded on our financial statements at approximately $163.5 million and approximately $10.6 million in consolidated real estate investments.
The insiders that are dumping shares like mad will provide you plenty of liquidity. I think the Nov 20 Puts @ .55 cents would be my preferred way to play this. Wouldn't be a bad move as a protective put either.
So by that logic anyone that posts here is unemployed? Care to respond to anything factual I said, or do you want just sling insults? I'm curious if there is a bull case past "we like the dividend so who cares about anything else." Do you want to discuss, or treat the board like a support group for fellow nervous longs?
Oh, does anyone want to comment on "material weaknesses in our internal control over financial reporting, which have not been fully remediated as of the filing date of this Form 10-K" specifically concerning DE (they had to start reporting this when they added the additional 20% ownership.)
I'm considering shorting this in one of my other accounts. Most shorts would avoid this because they don't want to pay the dividend, but I think this stock craters 50% in the next 18 months.
yoshicf, sounds like your an MBA that doesn't have a job if you have time to hang out on a board where you don't even own the stock.You must have a lot of time on for hands. Judging by your analysis of this company i understand why your unemployed.
yoshicf...To answer your challenge and answer your question. What you seem to have overlooked in your analysis are the 19 real estate investments made in the New Valley portfolio,that when they come on line should contribute significant revenues and income.Also, what i don't understand is if you sold your stock why are you hanging around this board and engaging various posters who seem to still own stock and believe in VGR.
For the record, JackieVGR, I have an MBA in finance from NYU. Just inherited a large position in this stock from my father and after ripping apart its financials, sold it. Besides the obvious things like a tobacco company and a brokerage having nothing to do with each other, because of the gimmick 5% stock dividend (which does nothing to the intrinsic value of the company), the cost to pay the cash dividend has gone from $100 million in 2009 to $157 million in 2014 to $194 million this year. Then they sold bonds at 8% to fund their dividend (does this seems prudent?) These numbers are all from the 10-K (that's an annual report), feel free to pull it up yourself. You might want to check out the insider selling while you're at it.
I challenge you to show me the math on how they can continue to fund the dividend and interest payments with what they make - for bonus points, do it in grammatically correct English without petty insults.
Since I'm bored - roughly 6000 agents. They did $550 million in revenue and $47MM in EBITDA in the trailing twelve months. Note this is EBITDA, not earnings. Compare this with the ~$200MM in dividend payments and ~$100MM in cash interest payments the company needs to make. The bonds they just sold at 8% have covenants that basically say they're not allowed to sell any other bonds. The tobacco business is shrinking every year.
They'll have 18 months more (MAYBE) before being forced to cut the dividend.
Purple....I look forward to when they all come out at once at 2 a.m. (no pasties please)
Sentiment: Strong Buy
ok Yo shicf - are you aware that prudential had been partners with DE for 10 years and as part of the break in 2012 there was a predetermined price for certain %'s? but go ahead and use that # for valuation purposes without knowing what you are talking about. also do you know how much Insignia sold DE to Pru, Howard & Ms. Herman for? let me help you....
in 2003 pru and Mr. Lorber & Ms. Herman ponied up 72MM for DE - 100% - do you think Andrew Farkus made a mistake? do you even know who Mr. Farkus is? if you know anything about the company you placed a valuation on - i would be very surprised!!! go ahead, take a big step and tell me how many agents DE has, how much earnings they reported last year, how much money is derived from each rev stream - management, sales, new development, pipeline, anything? DE gross commission sales for 2014 vs 2004 or vs 2001 or vs 2007 - do you know any of these answers? come on impress us... open your keyboard again - i dare you to tell us something that takes some reading to know.
yo shicf , are you smoking Denver's finest.?
were you drunk? what are/were you thinking?
are you over 15 years old?
please explain your post - its so off that i'm wondering if your in need of medical attention.
sounds like you are on the #$%$..
seems to me you are on the wrong stock...
if you actually think your number is at all close, you are in for a huge wake up call.
do you own any other stock?
sometimes its better to say nothing and let folks think your a foolish person rather than posting this non-truth and removing any doubt.
did i miss something - when did purple declare the divvy is the reason purp owns vgr?
GLTA - happy memorial day weekend. be safe and drive sober!