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There were two good articles over the last couple of days about Zynga's new CSR2. One by VentureBeat and one by ValueWalk. Both really positive and surprisingly optimistic for the game. They both state that the game should roll out over the next couple of weeks. It will interesting to see if the Zynga management holds their status quo of advertising by mime. Hey Zynga management, spend some money and come up with some great ads for these games.
Unless they have better news than the competition, investors will not mess with this because they have better options to pick from. The love relationship with ZNGA is low by investors at large. Funds holding here are in it for the next pop caused by some news and or announcement. Activists will eventually begin pushing their weight around to get something going. Time is running out and promises have been left behind. Time for action or move aside and let others handle their future.
For those interested in MNKD. Prescription data is released every Friday morning.
TRX 516 (total prescriptions) (last week 423)
NRX 386 (new prescriptions) (last week 330)
Refills 130 (last week 93)
Afrezza was soft launched with no direct consumer advertising. The soft launch now just ended and now Direct to Consumer advertising is beginning this coming week. So without any real advertising the prescription numbers are already increasing heading into the formal launch.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
As always they will beat the low-balled current quarter. This is when they release the full year guidance. I fully expect it to be optimistic between Dawn of Titans, cost reduction, and the slowing rate of decline from core desktop games(heck the revenue is so small that it is getting to be a non factor). I also expect the Mattrick mantra of "patience" to be removed from the conference call language. They have 5 launches this year out or queued up(E&A, Harvest Swap, DOT, Mountain Goat Mountain, CSR 2) and have one more to announce to hit the low end of their 6-10 estimate. I expect a casino game to be announced.
So here are the scenarios as I see them:
The stock goes nowhere if- They hit the low end of the quarterly range. Projected annual loss $2 million better than last year. Revenue 5% higher than prior year. Commit to DOT launch by end of year.
The stock rises if- Hits the top end of the range. Projects a loss $50-$75 million lower than 2014. Announce the launch of DOT with some fanfare. Lays out a slate of 3-6 new games. Comes up with a decent use of some of the cash on the balance sheet.
The stock falls if- They hit the quarter, but guide to lower revenue than prior year and a loss equal to 2014. Delay DOT launch. Have no new news on new games or investment of balance sheet.
I expect the hype machine to be in full swing and regardless of what actually happens, I think they will push a vision that looks a lot like what I laid out in the stock rising scenario.
China, not Greece, is likely the really big story. The Shanghai Composite was off another 6% last night. It is down more than 24% in just over two weeks. This is despite massive intervention and rate cuts by the Chinese Central Bank. We now witness panic selling and margin calls in Shanghai, and nearly $3 trillion in market cap has been erased. History does have an odd tendency of accelerating at critical junctures, and markets declines then take on lives of their own. How does ZNGA fare in a U.S. market rout, which we are on the very cusp of? The short answer is not good. The ZNGA Brain Trust vaporized billions of shareholder capital ($15- to $2.84) in the midst of one of the greatest stock market ralleys in history. The company still does not make a dime, and will post more losses this August. This bloated pig remains in big trouble. Further layoffs are not a question of if, but when. Don't get me wrong. Greece remains very important in terms of establishing precedent for other nations under the curse of austerity, and it's a long list.. We have a perfect storm brewing between China and Greece. Bottom fish junk stocks at your own peril. We have another fascinating week of trading ahead. Yes, it will be exciting. Hold on for the ride.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
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Don't rely on one trick pony games to get this over the hump. Competition is already working on alternatives with plenty of money from gains on current top ranking games. They will surprise when they release for beta before year end. Meanwhile Z is still fumbling with lack of marketing strategy and beta testing taking so long. Followers tend to follow leaders and this is where Z is at as long as creativity is lacking.
MP will eventually get to rational behaviour when he realizes it's time to move on. He is now on an emotional drive to prove he can do it again. Shareholders will need to tread with caution until then. Activists may step on the pedal if they see this moving backwards.
I agree, zynga is not a shortterm trade. Zynga has staying power(cash) and a viable pipeline. (Dot and csr2) plus the evergreen line. I think Mark P will get out of the way before a year is up.
because most comments are by paid bashers like odonnell and his crew. Check out Zynga's and NMs new games. Their Q over Q mobile improvement is remarkable. Strongest balance sheet of all mobile gaming companies.
Shorts rarely cover weak stocks. Hell, they don't even cover solid stocks. So why they covered zynga short in last 2 months? Because....zynga will sky rocket from here.
Your writing is filled with non sequiturs, lacks coherence and focus. If the holiday weekend weren't approaching, I would call you an idiot extraordinaire.
Sentiment: Strong Sell