I have read some moronic statements on these yahoo boards, but you ibexx might have just topped them all. Speculative GILD may hide or defer revenue profit? Are you suggesting management would do criminal acts that would ultimately hurt the investment here? If that is the case we should all go short or get out. Idiot.....
Hard to make estimates of top and bottom lines at this time due to uncertainties re:
--Discounts (various, with a large range)
--Foreign sales and reimbursements not transparent at this time
--Compassion sales or give-away
--inventory build-up in first quarter after drug launch
--speculatively, GILD may try to hide or defer revenue or profit in light of external pressure on pricing. This has happened before in the early days of Clinton administration when Hillary started an effort toward national health policy. All major pharmas all of a sudden saw a deficient in profits.....I hope this is NOT true.
Until Tuesday, 4:15 pm, all valiant efforts in guessing GILD's numbers are just over-simplified exercises. However, I am OPTIMISTIC overall.
US, Japan, and Europe, (modern high income jurisdiction) there are easily 10 million hep C cases, it seems to me servicing a measly 300,000 patients a year on a longterm basis (until pat expires) it could bring in 9 billion a year, for year after year, with 90% falling to the bottom lline. And using the 300,000 patientients a year as their share of the market is extremely conservaitve. But this is just for illistrative purposes on what kind of money will flow through the door for S, even with compitition and Gov't push back.
Rebates are becoming a thing of the past in this industry. Laws have been changed with what can and don't be done etc.. Good thoughtful insight on ABBV. Gilead should not desire 90% mkt share, as indicated by I believe Norbert B. This would start an unreasonable price war out of desperation.
GILD rationalizes that the cure for Hep.C, m Sovaldi, needs to be priced on the ability to pay. That is not what Obamacare has in mind. That would be like selling a Buick Regal for $30,000 in the U.S. and $400 in Egypt.
This would mean the U.S. with a unsustainable bankrupt medicare system would subsidize the rest of the World.
Because we have attrition and new subscriptions. I am assuming we just keep adding 3600 /w as we have a constant flow of new subs to add every week while we lose some due to end of treatment. Soooooo….. on a 12 week period we always have 3600 * 12 as a base old and new ones. It is better seen on a spreadsheet.
If we keep NRx at 3600/w @ $5k/w that $2.16B. Assuming NRx is underestimated by 10% = $2.4B then add initial sales projections for the qtr @ 2.9B = $5.3B with a net profit @ 27% = $1.43. On an annual basis if sustained = 5.72. With a PE of 20, conservative, PPS = $114. All aboard!
"If you would of actually read the article you would see that it is a quote from lead investigator Richard R. Furman, MD. The author didn't make it up, he quoted the lead investigator. So what your actually saying is the lead investigator Dr. Richard Furman is dumb."
OK, I'm saying he is dumb. Explain otherwise. The "tumors" did not melt away. Some people receiving the miracle drug DIED from the "tumors" that supposedly melted away, and the rest still have the cancer. No one was cured.
So explain why he is not dumb. Because he is "the lead investigator"? Are you aware that he was paid by Giliad to do that study and write the article?
What I've seen is between .85 and .88 a share.
Doesn't seem to be a lot of "buy on the rumor" going on. Don't know what to expect. I'm very optimistic long-term just curious short-term here.
That's an interesting question tk. The rational mind would conclude that a lower price agent would attract share against a higher priced one, all other factors being equal. But this is not the case for pharmaceuticals. There are four parties in the Rx transaction rather than just a buyer and a seller. One of those, the pharmacy benefit manager (PBM) works for the ultimate payer as previously described, but pharma mfr rebates, which are paid to the PBM as revenue, twists the incentives. The fiduciary responsibility the PBM has to its payer client is to manage the entire pharmacy benefit in a cost-effective manner. They dont have to get the lowest price on every Rx. This twisting is the wedge I spoke of earlier.
Say ABBV or BMY launch an equivalent HCV brand early next year. A hypothetical medium size PBM might see 1000 Rxs per year. At present, little or no rebates are paid on Sovaldi volume to this PBM because GILD has no reason to do so. But say GILD believes the second brand will be priced 20% below Sovaldi to play the good guy and to interest PBMs and other payers. GILD offers a 10% rebate for exclusive preferred reimbursement to this PBM prior to second brand launch. ABBV is thus forced to launch into a non-preferred reimbursement. The PBM takes the GILD contract and receives $8400 rebate/Rx. At a 85% share, that's over $7m revenue to the PBM. Some is passed on to the payer client so the PBM can show they are managing this high-cost brand. If ABBV brand achieves a 15 share, that benefits the PBM too since they can demo that a lower cost brand is seeing utilization sans rebate with the client;s beneficiaries.
As to how quickly warehoused patients will be treated prior to the second brand launch, I have no specific information. I suspect HCV will be a large market in the US for decades. One that will accommodate multiple brands and plenty of add-on therapy regimens. Sovaldi is a cure - it needs to extract value quickly, unlike chronic meds paid over time. Bag
LONDON, April 17, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- GlaxoSmithKline plc (GSK.L) and Genmab A/S (GEN.CO) announced today that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved a Supplemental Biologic Glaxo SmithKline after the market closed received a great news that "License Application (sBLA) for the use of Arzerra® (ofatumumab), a CD20-directed cytolytic monoclonal antibody, in combination with chlorambucil for the treatment of previously untreated patients with chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL) for whom fludarabine-based therapy is considered inappropriate.1
The FDA approval of the first-line indication is based on results from a Phase III study (COMPLEMENT 1) which demonstrated statistically significant improvement in median progression-free survival (PFS) in patients who received the combination of ofatumumab and chlorambucil compared to patients who received chlorambucil alone.1
"CLL is the most common form of leukaemia amongst adults in Western countries, many of whom are elderly with multiple health issues," said Dr. Paolo Paoletti, President of Oncology, GSK. "Today's approval by the FDA for the use of Arzerra in the first-line setting means that appropriate patients with CLL have a new treatment option." GILD has also received an ORPHAN DRUG STATUS for CLL.
IMHO, GSK & GILD are both great growth companies.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
--Sovaldi as first option invariably where patients are eligible
--Sovaldi + Olysio combined use officially allowed in selected case with drug experienced patients
The VA patients represent a very large segment of the HCV patient population in all genotypes. If thisse guidelines were issued only in late March, I would say that Sovaldi still has lots of legs left in its SOLO RUN.