They don't have to inform us of higher bids, and I don't think the seven dollars will fly. If no more bids and they don't sell, I believe Surf is right and it will go back around five. It could take weeks or months for a final decision. The directors still have to hire outside lawyers and accountants to make everything look legit. At
what price they will agree to sell, I haven't a clue. But would like to see at least 10 bucks.
It is going to be a really interesting week next week. I suppose that it's possible that Yin doesn't want to put in a competing bid to the consortium. In that case, he will just treat their bid as a hostile takeover attempt and has lots of ways to resist it (though I don't know if there are any poison pills already present in the bylaws). If that were to happen, the share price would slide quickly and then slowly on into next fall at least. To brace for this, I sold a little more than a third of my stake, 30,000 shares, today. If it does slide over the next ten months, I will just hang on to the proceeds of today's sale and buy back 50,000 shares later! The risk that I took is that there will be a higher bid by Yin and the price will continue to shoot up. If it goes high enough (say $8-10), then I will sell the rest and either wait for a later entry or say sayonara to SVA. I doubt that the two sides will "agree on a price" as Randal suggested, since as far as I can tell, they are competitors and wouldn't want to share ownership. But that's just speculation.
Yes there is a lot to speculate on. I'm thinking they are going to file an Edger over the weekend. If this goes into Monday, things could get real interesting as in more bidders. As it going back to $4.00, I doubt that could happen under any circumstances. IMO, Luck, Life
Some nice purchases into the close. Now we wait to see what Monday morning brings. Does the bid get raised, 3rd party, is there a price where either party cant afford it and walks. Does our unbiased committee (insert laugh here) turn down either offer, or say the company is not for sale. I am afraid if both offers are removed we plummet back down to below 5. It would be short term, once EV sales start I feel we start a grind back up again. For as boring as this stock has always been, there are moments like the H1N1 where it is a frenzy.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
So will it be a run for the roses, more of the same, or a run for the door in the last 15 minutes?
I planned for all three so I'm good with whatever happens and hope you are to! Best of luck, to all of you. IMO, Luck, life
Not completely. Over 400k shares for half a day already all between 6.90 and 7.10.I'll bet they are negotiating with each other over the weekend to set one final agreed price.
i think that you can count on US law firms to have class action lawsuits and then work out a way to keep all the money themselves. Happened to me before. Lots of work to become a member of the class and then got screwed.
Better yet, lets hope the CEO / Owner "looses" his company to another group that offers more per share. That would possible send him a message that he should treat more fairly all the shareholders that provided him the funds without interest to grow the company to profitability, and instead of sharing the profits / stock value gains with sharehlders that helped achieve this, he wants to cut them out and keep all those profits for himself and his cadre. Of coarse I understand the "costs" of being a US listed company, and more importantly, the teeth and liability of US securities laws, and a court system that is not as friendly to "big money connected elite" as some others, like China.
I do not think management cares about shareholders, if they truly did care they would not be proposing this action with this tiiming.
I think you can count on US based law firms that are active with these kind of lawsuits to file a class action lawsuit soon after they analyze the value of SVA shares in light of the recent China FDA approvals, and drug applications in the pipeline.
I haven't found any either Life, but I did find an article by Heng Ren. If you google:
Bidding War for Sinovac Confirms Undervaluation: Heng Ren
You should find it. The interesting concept that he mentions, which I hadn't considered, is that this move to take it private is in order to have a subsequent public offering in China, where the company will be worth several times what it's market cap is here in the US. This makes a lot of sense to me, and I wonder what you, Donor and others think about it as a hypothesis. Cheers, Surf
A couple of thoughts and questions...
• I agree with you, Ezra, that the best thing would be for the board (which I don't think will do anything against Yin's wishes) to scrap privatization plans altogether. For most of SVA's history, the price has been too volatile and the trading too thin to enable the co. to look to the market to help drive growth (e.g. through splits and secondary offerings) and I imagine that frustration contributed to Yin's decision to go private. If we achieve new long-term prices and volume (not just for a week or two), the whole picture may change.
• Suppose there is no news on Friday or anytime over the next week or two. What will happen to the price? If i had to guess, it would be that volume quiets down and we just hover around 7 for awhile. But I really don't have a clue. Whatever happens, it will tell us a lot about whether anyone is trying to acquire a huge stake, whether the market really has begun to value Sinovac's fundamentals or whether it's just anticipating something of a bidding war, etc.
How did the experiment go! Were they able to find you a mate, or are you hopelessly a lonely monkey.LOL, as you say! Keep up whatever it is that you do! IMO, Luck, Life
Well, China will be waking up around now (6PM in Chicago) and maybe by the time we wake up tomorrow there will be another bid on the table. It's interesting that Yin and his predecessor seem to be the combatants in this. What do you think happened at the end of the day today? 1. One of the two groups was picking up all they can on the market and blew through $7. 2. The arbitrageurs smell a bidding war and are bidding up the share price. 3. The market in general thinks that this is the beginning of a bidding war or realize that this stuck is woefully underpriced (even at 7 bucks).
Glad another private / Non CEO backed offer came in @ $7/sh to keep this #$%$ owner from:
1) Using shareholder money to build / grow his compnay to profitability; and then now it has a chance to make money, he
2) Takes the company private at a low ball price, selfishly keeping all the future profits to himself, and screwing shareholders of their share of the profits / stock gains.
This seems to be a new trend with China Companies. It has happened to me before. The more I learn, the less I will ever invest in China based Companies - they seem to not have shareholder interests in their mind, only their own greed is what matters.