JKS is building the plants for about $1.20 per watt and expects to sell them at about $3.00 per watt. If someone could buy out JKS for $33.50 a share and sell off the IPO at $3 per watt they could get JKS for free.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
$240M when they are shipping $500M of product is not bad. That is a 24 times inventory turn on a year. If you figure shipments in transit is 30% to US and Europe and other regions that is not considered sales as of yet, then you have another $100M of that $240M as in transit.
put your jinko for sale at $44 now with a good till filled order for 30 days, this will remove your shares from the "short loan list" and if your shares are already sold short you will force the short to cover, go ahead and do it you have nothing to lose, you set yourself up to lose if you have a stop loss order in so remove it.
Between 2020 and 2025 demand should grow at a 10% annual growth. If you start from a 108MW demand from the 15% growth, the market segment is 175GW. Add in the need to replace 10GW or more per year starting around 2020 you have a market segment approaching 200GW .
The cost to manufacture has fallen significantly over the past 7 years. The rate of decline has slowed over the past year. The costs are now in the $0.45 range for the most efficient producers. With Poly production costs targeted to drop to under $10/kg and grams usage dropping with efficiency gains, there is room for cost recovery of $0.04 from todays costs of around $0.10 per watt from Poly alone. There should be other cost reductions as well. These could shave another $0.04 to $0.06 off the costs to produce. A 10% increase in power would be a near direct $0.036 cost saving. Lower costs for glass and silver usage and the cost could fall $0.05-$0.06 cents. Module costs would fall to $0.36 or less for all in production by 2020. If you look at this cost reduction #$%$ a year a module in 2014 costing $0.46 would cost to make at $0.338.
With the higher ouputs balance of systems should drop to $0.50 or less and all in costs would be under $1. With finance systems cost come in at $1.20 . The cost to generate falls to $0.04 loaded. That is a near 50% decrease in the cost to generate from today and places it firmly as the energy of choice. At that price storage as an add on becomes affordable and solar is still cost competitive.
Like I have stated, I have been investing in solar for the past 8 years, this is my view on the next 10 years based on reasonable market presumptions and cost points. There will be some ups and downs and some regions these models do not match but in general around the globe that is where it is headed. Enjoy the next 10 years.
bottom line now is that Jinko solar is rising to the top in profits . Jinko solar will be back to all time highs soon then bust out to $50, looks like 2020 will be a sell time for solars.
Jinko solar is now $25 a share which is undervalued my price target is $38 by Jan 2015.
Thank you snake it is nice to get some perspective from someone that has been following this sector for a long time. I had another one 'Materials' on my list - assuming 0.10 grams of silvers for each watt of solar panel, that translates to 5 cents per watt (and it went down quite a bit recently) even at these prices. There might be a lag for how long silver by-product prices come down with silver prices (similar to meat when grain prices drop), but I assume it is happening and is only getting better. In the long run, I am looking for solar companies to adopt technology to eliminate the need for the expensive materials as the price will not stay suppressed forever. Does this make sense to you - I value your feedback, thanks
You are too ignorant to respond too. You deserve to be blocked and you will now.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Regarding capacity it is very constrained but I think most everyone else is in the same boat. It's a very capital intensive business and building out capacity/projects takes a long time. I'm happy to see JKS build relationships with banks, since that is a positive initial step in getting that capital whether it be for downstream or for a potential acquisition (fastest way to get capacity going quickly).
I like JKS also focusing on downstream more since that is the cash cow that will endure any bumps in the road for ASP. And I think the solar module business is not quite a pure commodity yet since there are plenty of technology advances or implementation strategies on the horizon. So I'm keeping on eye on those that can adopt new technologies and lower costs as those will be in the best position to dominate once the capacity constraint is over and ASP starts to come down.
The only real negative I see is that with growth is the need for capacity. JKS is constrained today and lost out on what they thought they were getting for new cheep capacity. Since then with the demand the reports are that most of the idle capacity is now started back up and the cost to aquire the capacity has doubled or tripled. It is not almost more expensive to by fully functioning capacity than it is to build new capacity.
Yes I actually liked the con call. The results were a little disappointing on the low end and modules shipped to projects but everything is on target as they guided at the start of the year and adjusted up in the middle of the year.
The Q4 guidance is rather bullish as operationally margins should be increasing with volume shipments as well. This should push profits from operations ahead. The guidance of another 20-25% growth for 2015 places them at near 3GW in shipments along with what could be $120M in project revenues and $40M+ net from that alone. If they are operating today at near $1 in EPS in Q4 based on 750MW, then 2015 could be looking very nice as that is the average expected volume.