My guess is Solar doesn't have a very good general view at this moment - mainly due to SUNE. When solar bounces back, as it always does, JKS will be shot up quite high. It's starting to look like it might take some time before this happens, but barring any negative news, it certainly will.
SolarCity's CEO and Chairman forecast that there will be inadequate supply in 2017 or 2018... as the volume of solar installations grows year on year at a +40-50 % pace, Trina, Jinko and others can't double their production quick enough. That's why PV prices have stay stable or rise to encourage investment or new entrants are required.
Don,t see why there would be a price war when manufactures are sold out for 2016. Solar companies are doing good now, if you look at earnings, these earnings occurred when oil was around $30, as oil rises solar stocks also seem to rise, don,t ask me why. Also China economy is slow so as there economy picks up so will Chinese stocks. All said it looks like solar has a very bright future.
Short them if you want but I am staying long!!!!!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
the Trina Solar earnings release says that total PV module capacity will be 6.0 GWs by end of 2016; on the other hand Jinko Solar has stated it will have 6.0-6.5 GWs by end of 2016
thus, Jinko becomes the volume leader in 2016
Seems like that is a lot of shares short that will have to be covered at some point. The more shares short are a positive for the longs!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
And 59% short volume today. If we could just get a big buyer on Trina good earnings tomorrow, we'd really rocket up. They're really trying to hold it down/steady for whatever reason. This is from the short analytics site.
Everybody blew it on SUNE, though one could make the case SUNE brought their demise on themselves by buying everything in sight ahead of a cycle of tightening and an environment when structures like the yieldco's, similar to energy MLP's, got taken apart by lower oil.
Oh, I'm not giving up. This is my largest holding of any stock, be it solar or non-solar. It's a no brainer, if WS would ever stop messing with it. And if media (looking at you CNBC) would ever decide to talk about solar seriously. And I don't mean SUNE, SCTY and FSLR.
Zangnut, don't give up on JKS! The #'s released yesterday tell it all! Shorts will try to hold this stock down but once they get squeezed, it is all over and up she goes! All fundamentals look good for this stock long term! Hang in there and stay long and the rewards will soon arrive!!!!!!!!!!!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
A new consensus estimate of GAAP $5.32 is out for 2017. That puts the forward p/e at 4.5x 2017 EPS.
If we have another leg down in oil I imagine the stock can be bought in the low $20's which is where I'll be adding.
Visibility Supports Expansion, Expectations Improving for Downstream ■ Bottom line – beat and grow: JKS reported a Q4 beat driven by a higher mix of 3 rd party module shipments, in line with positive sentiment echoed in preannouncements by peers. The company has strong demand visibility in 2016 with stable gross margins and is expanding wafer/cell/module capacity by 17%/40%/47%. We also expect downstream performance to improve significantly in 2H and inch closer to a potential spin-off this year. We increase our 2016/17 EPS to $6.48/$6.98 due to higher shipments, and introduce 2018 EPS of $6.09. ■ Healthy visibility in 2016, expanding capacity: The company expects healthy 39% shipment growth in 2016 with 80-90% of 1H shipments booked and 60%-70% of full year shipments already booked. As a result the company introduced 2016 shipment guidance of 6-6.5 GW (up 33-44% y/y). The US market also remains strong despite a 200-300 MW pushout due to the ITC extension, and management still expects ~2 GW of shipments to US in 2016 with 1.5 GW of order already in hand. The company plans to increase wafer/cell/module capacity to 3.5/3.5/6.3 GW in 1H16 from 3.0/2.5/4.3 GW currently and expects total manufacturing capex of ~$150- $200m this year. ■ Expectations Improve for Downstream: The downstream business saw gross margins decline to 34% in Q4 vs 61% in Q3 due to seasonality and higher curtailment in western regions. However, the company expects downstream business conditions to improve in 2016 as (i) curtailment declines during the winter in western regions, with Xinjiang already at 30% operating capacity compared to 100% curtailment in Q4.