The 100MW= per quarter is from the 500 MW, The total MW for the quarter was 519MW. Some of the modules are not made in house. JKS is buying 300MW(per year) of capacity for about 15 to 20 cents on the dollar in the last two quarters.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
That is a very good point. They said they will be at 2GW module by end of the year. Are they buying cheap from Tier 2 and Tier 3??
If you look at shipments of 500MW of modules and 50MW of Cells and wafers + 100MW+ per Q of modules to projects, they are running at 650MW. That is way over nameplate capacity. How do they do that and keep $0.50 costs? Think about it. Something does not sound quite right.
OK quick hack on projects after re-reading reports. Slightly up on profits from earlier anaylsis suggesting net of $20-$25M from the Q2 report comments I had made as suspected potential profits
Depending on projects modeling $6.5M per 100MW one might expect ~50% GM at a 70/30 split of ground vs distributed. This is ~ $3.25M gross per 100MW per Q. If they are ramping 100MW per Q you get
Q4= $13M rev $6.5M GP
Q1=$19.5M = 9.25M GP
Q2=$26M = $13M
Total revenue 2014 =$117 in line with the $100M in revenue
Gross Profit 2014 = $58.5M
Now the generation is new capacity and the Q was near peak production during the July-Sept months. During the winter months Nov-March you can expect a 25-30% lower power generation due to less daylight and angles. You might want to factor that in at something like summer Q2 = 70% Q2=85% Q3=100% Q4=77.5%.
That would lead to something like the following for 2014
GP = $6.825/$11.05/$16.25/$15.11
Total seasonal adjusted $98M revenue and $49MGP.
That $98M is inline with 500MW at appx $100M from Q2.
Have not read the Fools article. I suspect JKS can make mid $4 earnings in 2014 from the module business. You can add another ~$30M or so from projects. It really depends on how much of the FIT is pre-paid.
If you looked at the 500MW = $100M in 2014 statement, then they generate $20M per 100M per year per 100MW. That is $5M per Q. So the question is how do they generate $6M in profits from $5M in revenues? They might appear to be getting a FIT payment upfront for future power generation. That would severely limit profit from future power for existing generating capacity. So if they add 100MW per Q, they could be looking at only new capacity adding significant profit and old capacity getting low revenues. I will wait for a few more quarters of plant revenues owned by JKS to make a decision. For now though I would model on 500MW some $30M in profit for 2014 additive. That would be a 15% IRR for a builder and a 15% IRR for a project owner. Both are very generous terms for traditional power.
I think that the Fools just don't get it. What is happening reminds me of the good, the bad, and the ugly. SPWR is the good, but is too much money for too little gain. FSLR is the bad, they are big and can make money for a few years but will have to get their cost down and get their watts per area up to stay in the game. The China solar stocks are the ugly, and JKS is leading and leaving the pack. TSL aside from a one time gain was even this quarter. CSIQ's margins may look better in Q3 than Q4(at least that is what they think). YGE is coming around but they are for now still loosing money and have a lot of debt. JKS is running full out and adding production capacity. JKS has gone from 1.2 GW in Q1, to 1.5 GW in Q2, to 1.8 GW in Q3, to 2 or 2.1 GW in Q4. It looks like JKS will sell the power from about 100 MW per quarter. In other words JKS made about 6 million in Q3, will make about 12 million in Q4, will make about 18 million in Q1 of 2014,... It looks like JKS will be the big ugly in about 5 to 7 quarters unless one of the others gets their act together and even if they do it will only add a few quarters until JKS is the big ugly. IMHO.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
From pv tech
JinkoSolar has said it will expand module capacity to at least 2GW in 2014, due to solar modules sales being virtually fully booked through the first half of the year.
Experiencing one of the strongest financial rebounds amongst its tier one rivals globally in 2013, JinkoSolar is also transforming its business model towards that established by First Solar and SunPower in becoming a full-service PV energy provider (PVEP).
snake, what now? Do you think today is a dip to be bought, or its something more serious? Trina really got hammered today, but probably will consolidate some more. CSIQ and JKS holding on by a thread.
SPWR went down -6.63% and JKS went down -6.52%. So technically SPWR went down more but what really surprises me is FSLR and how high it trades in comparison to what it offers. If you look at SolarCity it went down another -7.96%, rightfully so. The bottom line is the Chinese Solar companies are actually doing quite well in comparison to their peers. A year ago, you would have been right. JKS had a bad day and it might be a bad day tomorrow, who knows, but if their accounting and books are right and everything points to it is, then you should see JKS going higher.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Every time JKS has sold off this year it only comes back stronger. JKS is a quality stock when compared to others. We'll be higher by the end of the year. Buy and hold on.
losing SEVEN dollars a share pump n dump pump n dump... SHOULD HAVE BOUGHT RSOL REAL GOODS #$%$ HOLES.... lololomao...
Sentiment: Strong Sell
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