Taiwan's Economic Daily News reports Apple (AAPL +1.7%) has ordered contract manufacturers to produce 72M-78M iPhone 7 units this year, a record figure for a new iPhone and above analyst estimates of ~65M.
Apple is outperforming as are their chip suppliers Cirrus Logic (CRUS +3.1%), Skywards (SWKS +3.3%), Qorvo (QRVO +2.7%), and InvenSense (INVN +4.6%).
There was a book written in the 60s by RIchard Farina, a musician and Joan Baez's brother in law, called, "Been Down So Long It Looks Like Up to Me".
"Among the 10 analysts Data provided by Thomson/First Call tracks, the 12-month average price target for INVN is $7.92 but some analysts are projecting the price to go as high as $10.00. If the optimistic analysts are correct, that represents a 66 percent upside potential from the recent closing price of $6.04. Some sell-side analysts, particularly the bearish ones, have called for $6.50 price targets on shares of InvenSense Inc (NYSE:INVN)"
Well, they are still going through the motions to attract investors. They have scheduled 3 financial conferences for next month as if they are trying to get the word out to new investors....
The 13th Annual Craig-Hallum Institutional Investor Conference in Minneapolis on Wednesday, June 1st;
The Benchmark Company Investor Conference in Milwaukee on Thursday, June 2nd;
The Robert W. Baird 2016 Global Consumer, Technology and Services Conference in New York City on June 9th at 7:55 a.m. ET.
Why would they do this if stock price does not matter?
Why would the CEO and CIO conduct such a lack-luster Conference call ? Their stock options are tied directly to the stock price. Was their goal to drive down the stock price ? Or is something in play such that the current stock price is of no concern. Either they are considering taking the company private or a buy-out is already in the works and the stock price does not matter.
Yes Dad always said if you want to know the truth follow the $. As we saw Q over Q there was a huge drop in Q4 $ due to the general semiconductor slump we saw with many companies. This was not the case however for IOT. Q3 was $25M I believe and Q4 was not down but edged that up a bit to a Q4 IoT of $25.44M.
Good point on HR sensors, not a peep. Also silance on UltraPrint and Corsa Retail & Sports. But given a $4.75B SAM NOT including smart phones, one must expect some % penitration and coverage. What, 5%? 10%?
It would be better to look at the sales revenue Q to Q rather than the %. If Apple is down, of course other sides of the business will show a % increase while the actual number is flat. Not looking back at the transcript but if I recall correctly, IoT didn't grow Q over Q.
The opportunity is here, today, for Invensense. If they can't execute during this next product cycle, I'm not sure if they ever can.
- VR in phones requires high end sensors. Clearly both INVN and STM make a 6-Axis MEM capable of the performance. I want to see if manufacturers start moving towards 9-Axis to provide a better range of tracking
- Microphones and the rise of Echo-like devices. Pretty simple, they've built a microphone array for this exact purpose. Can they win the important slots?
- Drones - Xiaomi, GoPro have drones set to launch soon. Lots of sensor and OIS opportunities here. Xiaomi should be able to get produce a high performing drone at an affordable cost.
- Fingerprint Readers - The smartphone trend is moving towards a more secure fingerprint reader beneath the cover glass. INVN has the product.
- HR Sensors - another trend moving towards more accurate, more efficient HR sensors. We haven't heard anything on this front since launch.
INVN has invested in the right areas and the opportunities are all around them. I'm skeptical they'll execute.
In the Q4FY2016 sales of $79.5M, China rose to $25M of sales or 32% in Q4, up from just 22% in Q3. China in Q4FY2016 is a 42.3% increase for InvenSense over the Q4FY2015
Conversely the U.S. sales (read Apple) were just 43% of revenue in Q4, down from 51%
For InvenSense, China is hot, Apple is not. So what is at the core of this dynamic?
In a word... Huawei
The R&D budgets involved are phenomenal. In 2015 Apple spent a whopping $8.07 Billion, indicating Apple is working intensely on some really big projects. But Huawei actually topped Apple with $8.1 Billion spent in research and development with an amazing 76,000 Huawei employees dedicated to research in 2015.
Reflect for a minute on $16B spent in 1 year, in laser focused research and development. I predict these will soon be InvenSense's two largest customers.
Unlike Apple though, with Huawei InvenSense is just getting started. InvenSense is continuing expansion of sensor-assisted navigation solution that just began ramping up in Huawei's flagship model last quarter. Evidently happy with InvenSense, Huawei is now pushing InvenSense technology down into its other platforms.
Focused on Apple sales decline, this very important fact seems to have escaped analysts attention. Huawei is China's jägernaught. They ramped up quickly last year coming in at number 3 with 108 million Smartphones sold. So as Huawei goes, so goes the other China OEMs. This is the beginning of InvenSense driving gyro adoption in mobile phones worldwide.
Most importantly, this is unfolding just as InvenSense is penetrating the China IoT market. I reported from CES2016 that a Huawei rep called out InvenSense as one exception for their philosophy of internal development. The rep indicated that Huawei has made a very large bet on the wearables market that they referred to as "functional beauty". Huawei intends to crack open the wearables IoT market in a very big way.
The InvenSense China strategy is a combination of delivering a development platform and expanding their ecosystem and distribution channels. This year InvenSense introduced the comprehensive IoT development platform comprised of the FireFly device in third-party hardware and software and SensorStudio. Its a fantastically powerful toolset designed to ease the development and programming of the FireFly device. Like a Lego set of Algorithms, the simple GUI-based tool uses InvenSense and customer developed sensor blocks and algorithms that enable rapid prototyping application development.
Last week InvenSense announced that this development platform will be the sensor foundation for the ARM Innovation Ecosystem Accelerator in China. This "accelerator" was founded by ARM in 2015 with Thundersoft Software Technology Co. Limited as a co-investor. It "accelerates" by being a one-stop shop with integrated sensor hardware and software experience and resources from the ARM ecosystem for start-ups and OEMs in the IoT and smart hardware segments in China.
With this approach InvenSense focuses customer support where it is needed most. And the rapidly developing China market joins the community of almost 40,000 InvenSense customer developers.
Since a fingerprint in child's Play Doh can defeat Touch ID, Apple must tighten up the fingerprint sensor security in order to tighten up the secure transaction process before they can boost the Apple Pay revenue.
They can do this with higher resolution imagery in house with the recent Apple purchase of AuthenTec and AutheTec ip.
Or if Apple does not want the limits of AuthenTec fingerprint imagery, Apple could move to Acoustic technology. In that case it is either Qualcomm or perhaps InvenSense with the most mature solution.
Apple's Touch ID is the security bedrock for accurately identifying you. Unfortunately Touch ID can be easily be fooled with Play Dough! The following defines the secure transaction process. Apple cannot afford to let Touch ID ruin the entire secure process.
Once you register your credit or debit card with your Apple ID, you can add it to Apple Pay directly, so you don’t need to send it again over the air. Regardless Apple encrypts the secure purchasing process from end to end, wrapping up your card details in a unique identifier.
An authorisation key is stored in the iPhone Secure Element, an industry standard chip. It reliably ties your device to your account. At this point in the secure purchase process it is known that it is really your account being accessed and it really is your iPhone. The final check, though is it really you making the purchase?
Using Apple Pay in a real-world setup requires you to hold your iPhone or Apple Watch against the shop’s contactless card device. It is at this point when you use Touch ID to scan your finger.
The likelihood of finding two people with the same pattern of loops and whorls stands at around one in 64,000,000. The likelihood that that exact person has your phone makes the odds even less.
Once your finger is recognised, Apple Pay sends your card provider the key from your Secure Element, plus the amount you’re spending and the merchant identifier, which is a double check, unique to that outlet, that ensures only they can receive the payment.
At the end of the process, it is known that it really was your iPhone accessing your account and it really was you making the purchase. But the retailer doesn’t need to see your card details, and neither Apple nor your bank gets to find out what you’re buying, so either half of the transaction is kept secret from the party who has no need to know about it.
Everything hinges on the fingerprint scan accurately identifying it really is you making the secure transaction.
specifically the 2018 $3 call. I think its doable for a $3 move to the upside in 611 days. 20 contacts for the same amount of money for 1k shares of the stock. $3 move = 6k profit verse 3k profit buying 1k shares. GLTA!
Doubt it. They bought Authentec years ago and likely building in house. The good news is the market will shift to this technology and competitors will need a complete solution from someone like INVN