Founder owns 26m shares and would have to go along with whatever board decides as board and Intel own 55mkl shares. Also don't be overly surprised if founders looks to take company private but would have to offer about $1.50 or more. Feel free to out your shares on mkt if u want to sell. Ppl are buying btw 60-70c. I don't recommend it but I will def buy some of those as well.
Key is mgmt getting in the road to market to institutional investors which won't happen until company returns to growth. If they can't do that this year they have to sell and I feel strongly they understand this. To their debt forces them to sell in next 12-18 months latest if biz doesn't improve but there are def signs of progress across their business lines and only need 1 of those to work to drive stock to 1.50. Need get several to work to get stock to 3-5 or higher
The problem is we are running out of time pertaining to delisting. Once that happens the stock will fall to 25c. Also the cofounder of the company will never approve a sell and they own about 20m shares. I own 60k share and I don't know what to do here?
That's quite a silly comment. SMART's biggest competitor Promethean was just sold to NetDragon (a Chinese company) for $130mil. Promethean has about 30% of the sales of SMART, no software footprint, no enterprise business, no Kapp opitonality and Promethean will generate roughly negative $10mil in ebitda this year.
At this valuation, SMT is worth about $1.60 per share including its debt. However, if SMART is able to achieve its guidance of roughly $450mil in sales and $30mil of positive ebitda, the stock should be much higher than that. If not, I strongly believe the company will auction itself out and we should know by Spring/2016.
SMART has about $30mil in corporate overhead which would be eliminated if acquired and still has the dominant brand in Education making SMART a very attractive acquisition candidate for the right price. If the turnaround fails and SMART sales continue to decline like Promethean continues to, then the company will be sold, if the sales return to growth, which I expect in the December Q (ebitda growing meaningfully by March) I think the stock goes significantly higher. As far as the short interest, it's getting a bit crowded costing anywhere from 10-13% to borrow and climbing higher, so if u don't have the stomach for a volatile stock below a dollar, then sell, but def don't short this stock as the downside from here is incredibly limited and u may walk into a 100% move up on an acquisition at any point. I think better chance stock moves meaningfully higher over the next few quarters as business improves sequentially each Q and Dec and March Q are big stock catalysts.
My best guess is does t drop much below 60-70c but it's just a guess. Really depends on how much tax loss selling. 1 thing I feel very comfortable about is stock will be closer to or over $1 late next year or early next year. While I think results will continue to improve sequentially for next few quarters, even if they don't, as tax loss selling finishes and speculative investors look to acquire shares for potential sale of company or eventual turn around,the stock should move closer to or slightly above $1. In order to actuall make this a successful investment, by my stadards (which is ~$5) results need to improve considerably. Mgmt has guided to this and Kapp and software/gamification has the market opportunity for this and I'm starting to notice a lot more sales leads, mgmt needs to execute on these potential deals and close the sales and this will further improve product awareness which will build on itself. Also Microsoft Surface hub is actually a positive for SMT as the IFP market is so nascent in the enterprise setting they need a large competitor to help grow market penetration of these products. For SMT this will include SRS but the bigger opportunity is wit KappIQ by of the lower price point
Thanks for that very informative message. I am watching this company and hopefully down the road will buy and make some money. 70 cents appears to be a low price for this company but I probably won't buy until their revenue starts growing. Better to pay a higher price after the start of a turnaround than to gamble that there will be a turnaround.
Remember mgmt has always pointed to a very weak 1H this year but said 2H should benefit strongly from map and kappIQ. Also if you believe all the industry analysis (not the wall street analys but the global Front of class display analisys (From FutureSource) and others, they have for a few years pointed to Calendar year 2016 as the year the North American and European Markets return to growth. Lending some credibility to this prediction is that SMT has stated that the UK and a few early adopter markets in the US recently started growing again this quarter, so I would expect that momentum to build on itself. Its def going to be a long cpp Quarters, but I expect the stock to start to react positively when the Sept Q is reported as the company should give revenue guidance which implies the beginning of revenue growth for the Dec Q and when Dec Q is reported incredibly optimistic guidance about March Q.
There are no debt covenants. They are not running out of cash, however they do need to refinance about $90m of debt by early 2018. Company still generating cash from operations but according to guidance will burn about $9-10m of cash this year, meaning total cash at the end of March should be about $45mil, with about $50m available on a revolver.
The key to focus on is to start seeing sequential growth in revenues and ebitda every Q btw now and the March Q. Also to see YoY growth in Revenues and slight decline in YoY ebitda in Dec Q and huge growth in both yoy revenue and ebitda in the March Q. According to guidance, the March Q should be the biggest Q in terms of revenue and Ebitda Since the Dec-14 Q which is when stock ran to $5. Im not saying stock will run to $5 then but if they hit those #s, stock should move closer to $2.
If they can't achieve their guidance this year, the company will be put up for sale. SMTs biggest competitor, Promethean, PRW.L which trades on the London Exchange, was just bought for $130m or slightly less than 1x sales. Promethean is expected to have about negative $10m of EBITDA this year on about $140m of sales.
At this multiple, SMT could sell for close to $2 if mgmt can't turn the company around.
A lot is riding on improvement in the Dec Q and especially March Q, It seems that both incorporate a big ramp in kapp sales. March Q should benefit from an initial stocking of the ACCO order recently announced, which should account for about 10% of that quarter's revenues or about $10-12m.
we will continue to see tax loss selling until shareholders are done and I expect mgmt to be courting new big institutional investors as soon as the company returns to growth. And if they don't return to growth over the next 2-3Qs, I strongly expect the company to be sold for a large premium from current prices, probably in the $1.50+ range.
hope this is helpful
Are they running out of money or are their loans due soon or have they violated any financial covenants? Wanting to know what information is available to support your bankruptcy soon statement.