"Do you really think that in issuing guidance, Stacy Smith & co didn't sit down and think, "OK we've got the Apple order, and they've signaled to us that they're planning to ship X number of units so they're buying Y chips"?"
[Don't be silly. It's not about whether they do it. It's about how accurate it is at the time and how much they sandbag it to be conservative.]
"Apple's phones sell because they are Apple phones. Gorgeous chassis design, iOS 7, touch-ID huge app ecosystem, brand loyalty, etc. etc. "
[So, you are saying that Apple customers don't care about cores but Android customers do. Really? Samsung customers buy for the same reasons Apple customers do. They see a commercial and say, "Ah, shiny..."]
You know that I think that Broxton @ 14nm will probably be a nuclear strike on all of the ARM players. If Intel's 14nm process is really that much better than TSMC's/Samsung's, then you're absolutely right: there will be a broad shift to Intel at the high end of the market.
If the OEMs do see this and believe this, then you may be on point with the OEMs trying to prime the pump, so to speak, in anticipation of this chip's arrival.
"We will light up the VoLTE rollout starting in the first half of next year. So we are still very much on track," Fran Shammo, Verizon Communications (VZ) CFO, said on the company's Q3 earnings call in October.
The end is near for Qualcomm. Almost time for them to say bye bye to the CDMA revenues.
And yes, Verizon will stream live TV thru their LTE wireless network using Intel's TV tech. Intel will benefit by providing the datacenter infrastructure and selling the set-top boxes.
And yes, Intel bought Mindspeed to help Verizon build out their wireless infrastructure.
Verizon and Intel ....together at last.
"The mindless, drooling masses that still think that ARM = power efficient, X86 = power hungry. The idiots who, at the end of the day, need to be advertised to? "
[You don't have to convince the mindless, drooling customers - just the OEMs. The customers don't know from nothing. And the issue you are clearly missing is that OEMs are going to want to be in line for 14nm product. In order for this to happen they need to get in line now for Merrifield. It's not just about the next three months. It's very much about the next year and OEM's have to be planning for that now. You are substantially under-estimating the power of the 14nm pull. It's Intel's trump card.]
'The mindless, drooling masses'
I don't believe that of the majority. It will be a question of taking the time to educate the masses with undeniable facts. Also Qualcomm has been losing share to the Asian companies using the very same quad-core A7 approach so I actually think a modern dual-core Krait 405 would make more differentiation sense for them. Anyway I see your POV fully now but I think it is still too pessimistic and I believe you will be pleasantly surprised once Merrifield phones are unveiled, released and market accepted.
Apple's phones sell because they are Apple phones. Gorgeous chassis design, iOS 7, touch-ID huge app ecosystem, brand loyalty, etc. etc.
Apple didn't even tell people how many cores there are - if you want to know, then you have to actually do some work to figure it out. People don't care because people who buy Apple aren't buying for "specs". The dog-eats-dog world of Android phones demands that you have as many marketing points as possible.
"I don't have anywhere near as much faith in the "customers" as you do. That's really the only point that we disagree on."
[Well, you watched Apple customers totally embrace a "dual core" solution that you and theblueredmonk say cannot be possibly accepted because "good marketing" requires a quad core solution.]
Do you really think that in issuing guidance, Stacy Smith & co didn't sit down and think, "OK we've got the Apple order, and they've signaled to us that they're planning to ship X number of units so they're buying Y chips"?
"Baked into guidance."
[No, it is likely not baked into guidance. Because guidance was likely conservative to begin with. Then we have stronger economic performance since the time of that guidance and we have also had news that Apple PC related revenues have been stronger than anticipated.
I really hate it when you go into your Gloomy Gus routine, especially when it is based on two words of analysis.]
Yes, but a dual core Krait 300/400 would kill all quad A7's in benchmarks and yet Qualcomm has largely shifted its low end to quad A7's (and soon quad A53's) when it had previously offered dual core Kraits into this market.
When I say 'DOA', I mean, "won't ship into designs that really matter". Just ask yourself this. If you were Motorola, Samsung, LG, etc., and you've been shipping "quad core" phones for years (and using this as a marketing point), what would compel you to move to a "dual core" anything? Yes, it could be a better chip, but how do you sell that to the crowd?
The mindless, drooling masses that still think that ARM = power efficient, X86 = power hungry. The idiots who, at the end of the day, need to be advertised to?
'If not, dual core means DOA. I honestly believe these phone vendors would prefer a much slower quad A7 to a speedy dual core Merrifield.'
Merrifield will kill quad-A7s in ALL benchmarks. OEMS will know that and the customers too. Frankly you could not be more wrong and this whole DOA NONSENSE is not your finest predictive hour.
"Didn't say zero, said negligible."
[I'm not concerned with the zero versus negligible. I'm concerned with you trying to say that your gloomy projection is Intel's projection. It's not. As the Intel guy in India/Asia said yesterday. Given his comments why would you try to replace those statements with your own?
If Intel has phones with two major players in 2014, that will be a very successful year from a mobility perspective. There is no need for doom and gloom and especially no need for excessive doom and gloom.]
"Seriously, you know it is a good chip that will perform well in very slim phones."
Yes, but I also know that this is a market where "Exynos Octa", "True 8 Core (Cortex A7)", and "64-bit" are the big marketing highlights.
If Merrifield ships with 64-bit Android, then I stand down: this will be a great marketing point. If not, dual core means DOA. I honestly believe these phone vendors would prefer a much slower quad A7 to a speedy dual core Merrifield.
[Bump for Intel's Q4 sales.]
"Apple said Wednesday that its new high-end desktop, the Mac Pro, will go on sale Thursday - giving impulse buyers just enough time to make a last, expensive addition to their gift lists."