It's not only Putin - it's the "people of Russia" - I have no idea what is going on in their brains - what is the motivation.
But I know in case Stalin would have had the capability he would have attacked Germany and probably swallowed up all of Europe
TSMC management conceded it is likely to lose market share next year.
As expected the dogfighting among ARM foundries for ARM meat and bones is in full swing - Glofo and SMIC are trying to undercut 28nm which is bread and butter for TSMC to fund 20nm and smaller -
and on the advanced technology TSMC is facing Intel
"Waldo, the pompous old fool strikes again, bashing anyone who is critical of his feckless leader. No credentials, just a self described professional whose major claim to fame is close to 30,000 non stop pumps of INTC since January 2008 and bashing anyone with an opinion with which he disgrees"
[No education recap, no positions, no credibility. And still doesn't know how to use a spell checker.]
Times could hardly seem better for the shares of TSMC, the world's biggest operator of customized chip foundries. The company, which makes semiconductors on a contract basis for the likes of QCOM & BRCM, boasts a market valuation of $100 billion, with its stock up more than 80% over the past two years. Two months ago, TSMC started shipping Apple's A8 dual-core processor chips, the brains for the new iPhone 6. Last Wednesday, TSMC reported its highest quarterly profit since 2005, handily beating analysts estimates, and guided toward higher third-quarter profits. Revenues are forecast to grow 25%, to $24.7 billion this year, and profits by 33%, to 32 cents per share.
So why did the stock drop nearly 5% on Thursday with the prospect of steeper declines to come? In the course of releasing earnings, TSMC management conceded it is likely to lose market share next year. After the earnings call, at least 5 analysts downgraded TSMC to the equivalent of Sell or Hold from previous Buy recs. "I have been covering this stock for 15 years, and I have been bullish for years, but I just put a Sell on it," says Mehdi Hosseini, analyst for Susquehanna in SF.
But we, too, would suggest taking profits, because TSMC's straightforward strategy of investing heavily to upgrade the quality and reduce the size of its chips every year may need rejiggering. It simply can't afford to keep raising prices and hope to retain the business. Increasingly, it's going up against two other deep-pocketed government-owned rivals in Abu Dhabi's GloFo and China's SMIC; private-sector competitors like Samsung and Intel have more flexibility to shift their focus to other areas. At the same time, customers like Apple and QCOM are exploiting the competition by diversifying their suppliers.
John Kerry in charge of forigen policy is about as bad as Eric Holder as Attorney General. There was no serious Republican candidate during the last election, but one out of the peanut gallery nearly beat Obama.
Next election it will be a centrist right versus centrist left, not centrist left versus the extreme right.
Waldo, the pompous old fool strikes again, bashing anyone who is critical of his feckless leader. No credentials, just a self described professional whose major claim to fame is close to 30,000 non stop pumps of INTC since January 2008 and bashing anyone with an opinion with which he disgrees
We have mentioned that Broadwell-Y is launching in Q4 2014 and this will be the only market segment to get the new 14nm architecture in 2014. Intel’s Y-series of processors is all about low power, low TDPs and is fitting in the thinnest and lightest devices. It could be viewed as the jewel in Intel's processor crown. Everything else is coming in Q1 2015 and beyond.
Still with most of its mobile parts transitioned to 14nm already in first half of 2015, Intel will have a huge advantage over AMD, Qualcomm, Nvidia, Samsung and the rest of the competition, as 14nm is without a doubt more efficient than 20nm which is the best that the competing fabs can do in 2015.
"No kidding. John Kerry, Joe Biden and Obama........The rest of the world is terrified of America, as you can plainly see. I bet Kerry, Biden and Obama have the best manicures and petticures money can buy. SMH."
[No education recap, no positions, no credibility. And who listens to a guy who can't make the spell checker on his Etch-A-Sketch work.]
So, as we have been saying for a while:
1.) ARM is pretty much stuck at the 28nm node and is going to be there for a very, very long period of time. At the same time ARM margins are going to contract. When it becomes clear to Wall Street that ARM is dropping out of the Moore's Law club, expect the ARM stock price to drop below $40 and keep going.
2.) The number of state-of-the-art ARM foundries is going to drop to two and maybe just one. The consistently dropping number of ARM foundries has been a trend for years. The fabless concept just doesn't provide the CapEx. Right now it's a fight between Samsung and TSMC to see whose state-of-the-art foundry business survives.
This brings us to Intel and their process prowess; money-MAKING no less! As discussed a few posts back, Intel has rock-solid proof of process superiority: 22nm FinFET processors shipping in volume since 2011. That’s an impressive achievement, given the complexity required to bring FinFET into commercial production … as evidenced by the fact that the rest of the world’s foundries have made commercial production FinFET shipments totaling zero.
Now let’s summarize some of the “facts on the ground” for those OEMs living on the leading process edge:
This is REALLY tough stuff—quite literally the most complex manufacturing undertaking in history—and it gets MUCH tougher with each passing node.
This is REALLY expensive stuff—I can’t think of any other commercial undertaking with a $5B+ ante—and it gets MORE expensive with each passing node.
Where am I going with THIS? Simple: with fewer customers, each high runner becomes a “must win.” Diversification across customers—much less vertical markets—becomes more difficult. The high stakes game outlined in the bullets above becomes a lot more like the World Series of Poker, where a single hand can make or break you. I’m not ready to suggest that in the end there is ONE leading-edge foundry standing, though if my logic can be followed you’ll agree that the number could very easily be TWO.
On the other hand, the consensus that 28nm is a long-lived node will redefine the term ‘long-lived’. We will see RF and NVM on 28nm in the not-too-distant future. Many brand-new-design, all-digital products will land on 28nm for quite some years to come. That’s the good news. The bad news? With at least five foundries playing at 28nm—many of which will not be playing in FinFET—margins are going to be (I can’t resist) wafer thin.
"We have Obama and John Kerry in charge of international affairs with Joe Biden as backup. Eric Holder is handling things state side. The Middle East is being taken over by extremists, Hammas is out of control and making the Palestinians pay, women and children are migrating to Texas/Arizona at alarming rates And now Russia is shooting down commercial aircraft full of civilians. What could possibly go wrong?"
[You forgot to blame Democrats for global warming and the US not winning the World Cup. And your implication is that Democrats are responsible for MH17. That's shameful and irresponsible. This "Democrats are responsible for everything wrong in the world, life and society" is a disconnect from reality that makes it hard for people to take many conservatives seriously. The run up to the last election presented an array of Republican candidates who continuously spouted these "lunatic fringe" view in every debate. You picked the best of these and even as exposed as Obama was on the economy, you got soundly beaten. As long as you persist in this break from reality, you are not likely to win another presidential election. Your rhetoric needs to match the facts in evidence. Your rant above does not. Let me be clear on this: You don't get to just make things up. Cut it out.]
It has been quite some time since we’ve discussed semiconductor manufacturing, and an article over the weekend in the NY Times prompted me to action. “IBM Wants to Invent the Chips of the Future, Not Make Them” proclaimed the headline, followed by fair amount of what I will technically categorize as ‘pabulum’.
IBM will spend $3B over the next five years on process-related R&D
Their roadmap goes down to 7nm AND includes quantum devices, carbon nanotubes and neuromorphic (now THAT is a term I would have loved to coin) devices
The sizeable R&D effort will produce process technology to be licensed and thereby produce a revenue stream
Let’s take these items from the bottom. The pool of potential licensees is—using statistical terminology—really small. And shrinking. I am not referring to consolidation—which will certainly compound matters—but rather the universe of foundries that will have the capital to bring up 10nm and 7nm processes. (I cannot speak to manufacturing quantum devices; perhaps all you need is a cat in a box.) Such fabs will run be in the $10B neighborhood and generating ROI off that CapEx is a game for VERY few players.
One could easily argue that there is room for at most three players at 10nm and 7nm, and given that one of those is Intel that leaves a grand total of one or two licensees for IBM. This vastly simplifies the selling process and makes for a tight agenda at sales reviews:  Progress at (letter randomly chosen) T,  Progress at S,  Cocktails! But it doesn’t exactly scream “holy camoley, we going to mint money off that $3B R&D investment!”
Let’s be clear: IBM is doing bleeding-edge process R&D today. The question is why. Their fabs haven’t been node competitive since 90nm … and that is being generous from any number of angles. Clearly, I am NOT taking the licensing narrative at face value.
We have Obama and John Kerry in charge of international affairs with Joe Biden as backup. Eric Holder is handling things state side. The Middle East is being taken over by extremists, Hammas is out of control and making the Palestinians pay, women and children are migrating to Texas/Arizona at alarming rates And now Russia is shooting down commercial aircraft full of civilians. What could possibly go wrong?
President Obama called the downing of the Malaysian airlines plane an "outrage of unspeakable proportions." Early indications suggest the plane was shot down by a missile fired from the area controlled by Russian-backed separatists. Meanwhile, the UN security council called for a "full, thorough and independent international investigation."
+ Samantha Power, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations: "It is impossible to rule out Russian technical assistance" in the operation of the surface to air missile system.
+ "We have just shot down a plane." Is this alleged intercepted audio a smoking gun?
+ Putin has now called for a ceasefire. (He's a little late with that request.)
+ "Vladimir Putin, acting out of resentment and fury toward the West and the leaders in Kiev, has fanned a kind of prolonged political frenzy, both in Russia and among his confederates in Ukraine, that serves his immediate political needs but that he can no longer easily calibrate and control." David Remnick nails it in a must-read New Yorker piece: After the Crash.
""I’m not doing is predicting on '15 yet and that was really – I want you to walk away with I think that’s the end of it versus we just have " IMO, the VERY KEY adder was when BK anticipated a misconception building in the analyst community. BK pointed out that the XP comments were limited..."
[Contra revenue will be pretty much done with in 2014 which will result in a very significant boost to earnings in 2015. Plus Intel will have a whole new gameplan for 2015. It's not at all going to be just about the corporate refresh. The arrival of 10nm is now getting a lot of attention and we should see some very big deals because of it in 2015. As ARM's fabrication continues to struggle, Intel's just keeps getting stronger.
If Intel had a six month delay on 14nm, your can only imagine how long it will take ARM to reach volume production on its half-step to 14/16nm FinFET. Companies are going to start hedging their bets towards Intel's proven technology and manufacturing as the uncertainty of an ARM solution arriving on time grows.
As the iPad looks increasingly like old technology, Intel has great opportunities with its tablet line. We can now see that an Android/Windows capability is going to become commonplace no matter what Google and Microsoft say about it. ARM cannot match this and it's a huge competitive advantage for Intel at little or no cost.
The rest of 2014 is shaping up nicely and 2015 is looking good.]
I was surprised at how easily Intel plowed through $30. I expected INTC to trade under $30 for awhile and then to oscillate around $30 for an extended period of time. The 2 month jump from $26 to $34 was stunning and I thought too much. I sold 1/4 of my position at $33.33 EXPECTING Intel to test $30. Sigh. When/if Intel drops back, I will start WRITING PUT options.
Since Intel spent much time at $25, one has to be very careful making estimates based on current open interest in option strikes. Many people made their decisions when Intel was at $26.
Intel is mature enough to maintain an ongoing SP-500-type PE ratio. That SP500 PE TTM range over history is 14.5 (mean) and 15.5 (median). Next year, analysts have forecast an average $2.28 EPS with a high of $2.94 and low of $1.57 (Yahoo).
Low EPS and PE ratio give a $22.86 target price.
High EPS and PE ratio give a $45.63 target price.
I think $2.94 is very high (as does everyone except one analyst) and would tend to use the average earnings until Intel shows how they are going to get to that revenue or reduce the share count.
PE 15.52x 14.56x
AVE EPS $2.28 $35.39 $33.20
HIGH EPS 2.94 $45.63 $42.81
LOW EPS 1.57 $24.37 $22.86
Thru 2013 ...
Min: 5.31 (Dec 1917)
Max: 123.79 (May 2009)
"I’m not doing is predicting on '15 yet and that was really – I want you to walk away with I think that’s the end of it versus we just have "
IMO, the VERY KEY adder was when BK anticipated a misconception building in the analyst community. BK pointed out that the XP comments were limited to 2014 ONLY BECAUSE Intel was not commenting on 2015 and NOT BECAUSE the XP upgrade effect ended. BK tried to kill a potential rumor before it could start.
Interesting concept, looking at Jan 2016 options to predict stock movement. I see open interest of 36000 for $40 calls I also see open interest of 32000 for $25 puts. In other words, the stock will be somewhere between $25 and $40 in the next 2 years. LOL.