Oldie but goldie!
During a speech at the 5th Annual Energy Storage Symposium, Tesla's Chief Technology Officer JB Straubel gave a keynote speech that was very revealing about how Tesla sees itself and where it sees opportunities in the future. Elon Musk has always said that his reason for creating Tesla and SolarCity was that he wanted to catalyze both the production and consumption of clean energy. It looks like Tesla will have a role to play not only in the consumption part (moving transportation from oil to electricity), but also in the storage of renewable energy, which often comes from intermittent sources like wind and solar. The battery Gigafactory will of course play a big role in that, with a certain amount of its production going to stationary energy storage devices and not electric cars, but Tesla isn't just planning to make battery. It's designing the whole storage systems - which is part of its expertise thanks to its EVs - and plans to scale them up quite a bit.
It's already testing a 2 megawatt-hour battery pack (see below) at its electric car factory in Fremont, California, and plans to scale it up to 4 megawatt-hour within a few months. The current 2 MWh pack is enough to handle 10% of the factory's peak demand, which can lead to savings if you charge it up off-peak when electricity is cheaper.
... and a lot of people are overestimating it. Panasonic's Annual Report projects solid growth in Automotive and Industrial Battery segment, but nothing even close to Musk's projection.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
"2017 Tesla Model 3 Starting Price: $50,000, According To A Sobering Report On Tesla’s Future Challenges" is the title of the article. Do a yahoo search to find it.
Curiously, Audi got the first-ever autonomous vehicle permit from California, and Cadillac has announced they will market a semi-autonomous "hands-and-feet free" car in 2017.
But, awesomely and visionarily and disruptively, Musk is TALKING about it. $900 by noon tomorrow.
The most important nugget here is that Musk says "strong free cash flow" by Q3 next year. Mark it alongside the breakeven at 8000 cars/year, the 1200 Roadsters/year, the dual sources for all Model S purchased content, the Model X in 2013, and the $1B Toyota contract discussed in 2011.
Actually, I think it'll be $1000 by noon.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
This could become reality very soon.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk told The Wall Street Journal on Thursday that Tesla’s fully autonomous cars will be far safer than human drivers when they hit the market within five to six years.
“They will be a factor of 10 safer than a person [at the wheel] in a six-year time frame,” Musk said.
He said “machine vision,” or the car’s ability to identify an object and take the right course of action, is the biggest issue slowing the release of fully autonomous cars. There are also some regulatory issues that needs to be solved that could delay the production another few years, he said.
Musk’s six-year timeline for a fully autonomous vehicle is pretty ambitious compared to some of his competitors. General Motors, for example, has indicated it would be ready to offer autopilot systems — not fully autonomous cars — by 2020, which controls parts of the driving, like only on the highways. Tesla’s goal for autopilots is 2016.
During the interview, Musk also said Tesla is on pace to “generate strong free cash flow” by the third quarter of 2015. Free cash flow is the amount of cash left for a company after taking out all the required costs and expenditures, which allows companies to pursue new opportunities.
Musk said much of the free cash flow will be spent on building its Gigafactory, the advanced battery plant that could cost more than $5 billion.
Read more stories on Business Insider, Malaysian edition of the world’s fastest-growing business and technology news website.
No, GM is not leader in EVs. It is Nissan/Renault, by far. Leaf, e-NV200 + the various Renault models.
GM does have the plug-in Cruze in Korea and the Spark EV here and there. Some would not count the Volt/ELR as EVs due to nature of the engine extender.
It does have enormous torque at 0 rpm, but no h.p. H.P. is a measure of force x distance over time. So it develops h.p. only when it's moving.
Also, steam engines put out full torque at 0 rpm. Electric motors and steam engines also have another feature in common. Both use power that was generated elsewhere, not inside the motor/engine.
3 phase motors are fantastic machines, but there is nothing new about them. They are used almost everywhere, except in residential settings where only single phase is available.
The Intel comparison would be more convincing if Tesla were in a position to create a near monopoly via high barriers to entry. Once Intel got to be the biggest chip maker, and chip making got very capital intensive, nobody could take them on. But any car company can make an electric car. Tesla may be doing it better so far, but there is no way they have a moat like Intel does. If the general public goes for EVs, then the BMWs, Fords GMs, and Hondas of the world will grab most of the market. Tesla may survive that, as a high end status symbol, or get taken over by one of those big companies after TSLA stock comes back to earth. Possibly somebody will make a movie about the Tesla in the future like they did with Jeff Bridges about the Tucker.
Simon Sproule was quoted in an LA Times article saying it will be "about $40K". Do you have some link or reference for this $50K? Even I don't believe that one.
ironbar, when I first bought Tesla at $29, a week later it feel to $26. That's more of a drop on a percentage basis. Good thing I believed in the long term vision and wasn't short sighted, eh?
Whether to charge a car, a home, a server apc, mobile devices, a lot of people here are seriously underestimating the potential here just with the battery factory.
quick question - if the factory is not running full speed and they are production constrained - why not run it more? If it really can do 2000 a week and demand is there, why not run it? See the problem is - when someone says it is production constrained - the plant or some input parts must be the limiting factor. Is the limit labor / people? They had an open house for new hires and had to shut it down due to the number of people wanting to work there. So, labor is not a concern other than costs. I think we are seeing a balancing act between new incoming orders, plant production and logistics. Which means the transition from production constraint to demand constraint is occuring.
And, where are the Vin #s? 9/9 was the last reported post from someone getting a Vin#. I really think they will hold back giving out new Vin #s now for a few reasons. We may actually see them go through ER in October/November without a Vin # issuance. probability is low - but it could happen. Other automakers do not give Vin #s out until the frame is painted for the job (job = one car produced).
cnbc is killing with the constant coverage...so tired of it all...they keep hammering on how it is gonna tank the market with a sell-off in other stocks...didn't happen, market was up yesterday and up big today...running up to the fed meeting, they kept hammering about how the fed is gonna change the language on their policy statement...wrong again, didn't happen...doesn't it suck to be wrong so many times especially on major stuff...perennial cnbc saga on trying to tank the markets not working out...
Just thought i would point this out as potential technology that is a game changer. EV's are old, old, news. But this technology was just cleared for European roads September 16th, interesting. Basher or buyer, nonoflowcell in the rear view mirror is keeping a lot of people awake at night,, this one I would invest in. Unfortunately it is a private company, as far as I know. I have no dog in this hunt. Just reading up on EV's and found the information on Nonoflowcell and wondered how it isn't getting any coverage. This has been an urban legend for years. Power from seawater. Sounds crazy doesn't it? Google nanoflowcell Quant e-Sportlimousine. If BMW gets this one, any big car mfg. and it is a game changer. Expensive at this time but what potential.