At the start of 2014, China was an unlimited market, able to absorb each and every car that Tesla could produce even if sales were zero in the rest of the world. From the 2/29/2014 investor conference call:
Elon Musk – “Yes, absolutely. Yes, I mean -- I think, based on current trends it seems unlikely that we'll be able to satisfy demand in China this year. So there will be unmet -- likely to be, I think, unmet demand in China.”
From the 5/8/2014 investor conference call:
Elon Musk – “So to the degree that our sales track that of other manufacturers presumably China would over time become the biggest market for Tesla. I mean that’s probably the best guess that anyone could make at this point, or in the short-term is that we really don't have a demand issue in China like we’ve got a lot of demand.”
Mid-year, Musk was still planning to accelerate the roll-out in China. From the 7/31/2014 investor conference call:
Elon Musk – “So in terms of number of stores by the end of next year -- or number of service centers I should say by the end of next year, actually I don't have that off-hand. But it's probably on the order of 100 in China alone, I'm guessing, by the end of next year.”
After leading-on investors for most of the year, Musk did a 180 and said that the rest of the world could absorb each and every car that Tesla could produce even if sales were zero in China. From the 11/6/2014 investor conference call:
Elon Musk – “I wouldn't say we're strongly dependent on China for deliveries next year. In fact, I believe even if we did not sell in China next year, we could probably still meet our targets. So even if there was zero China sales. We would like to exceed the targets, but even if we had no sales in China, we would still achieve the targets we mentioned in the quarterly earnings letter.”
And on 12/12/2014 Tesla China President Veronica Wu resigned.
Twas the night before earnings and all through the plant, not a creature was stirring, not even an ant.
The accountants were hung by their thumbs upstairs, dreading the time that their boss would appear.
The inventory report lay bare on the table, showing thousands of cars whose sales were unable.
The financials already showed quite a loss, and a write down of cars would surely p__s off their boss!
When out in the parking lot there arose such a clatter, they ran to window to see what was the matter.
The parking lot lights in their eerie glow gave the luster of midday to the objects below.
The fear they all felt made their eyes swell, a red model S driven like a bat out of h__l!
Out stepped the driver all nimble and quick and they knew in a moment it was that Big Dick!
He looked up and saw them and snarled out their names, "Hey Baker, hey Jones and you there Moffett!
Get your butts back to work and show me some profit!"
His eyes how they glared, the accountants were thinking, they hoped liked h__l he hadn't been drinking!
His troll like mouth was drawn up in a bow, like it always did before his temper did blow!
He headed inside to check on their work, and they ran like h__l, afraid of this jerk!
They hid best they could and turned out the lights because they knew he'd be mad and ready to fight!
He burst through the door and gave out a great yell, if you don't get this right we're all going to jail!
So turn on the lights and come out of hiding, it's been a long day and I don't feel like fighting.
They turned on the lights, crawled from under the table and told him of cars whose sales were unable.
He listened and said this problem won't float, the missing cars we'll say are on boats!
And so it was decided that long summer night, to ship finished goods for wrong or for right!
His decision made he gave them a warning, be finished by 7 the following morning!
As he barrelled away they heard him exclaim, "I'm a freaking genious, can you guess my name!"
kbodie is in the habit of posting anecdotal sales figures from places like Lichtenstein to 'prove' that the sky is falling. I just roll my eyes, but Ball Coach just taunted me with:
"Growing the business? Where? Lone, name a market anywhere in the world where Tesla is factually growing and not just first introducing the 4dr. Name just one."
So I have to assume he has been drinking kbodie's Kool-Aid, and there might be others, so I'll offer the following reply:
"Okay, Coach how about a market we all understand, over timescales that are actually significant? I choose the United States of America, excluding California. Let's look at quarterly sales figures over the last 5 quarters!"
Does that sound like a good market? Regular Americans without all those gay, commie, tree hugging, atheist, techno geek millionaires from the left coast... Who could say 'no' to that?
I'll post my sources & analysis below (so the wonks can quibble and the bashers can call me names) but for now let's just see the results and the big picture:
2013 Q3: 1,177 Model S Cars.
2013 Q4: 1,707 Model S Cars.
2014 Q1: 2,267 Model S Cars.
2014 Q2: 2,946 Model S Cars.
2014 Q3: 3,346 Model S Cars. (*)
(*) I don't have California's Q3 number yet, so I subtracted the Q2 CA number from the Q3's USA total. Note: That's a conservative estimate, since the trend in California is declining. (as Kbodie never tires of telling us)
So, there you have it. 5 quarters of strict quarter over quarter growth. In the largest auto market in the world.
If I wanted to be all breathless pumper about it, I'd point out that the Q3 year over year growth is 184%, but there is no need to spike the football. My hunch is that it's mostly noise. But even 50% y/y growth would be pretty good, eh?
My real goal here is to see if I tone it down and present real facts calmly if maybe, just for once, Ball Coach might admit he was wrong... Call me a dreamer, if you want to.... :-)
runiing a little last minute Christmas shopping and stopped at the Tesla location at Boca Town Center Mall. The mall was simply mobbed............except the Tesla place that had, including me, 5 people, 4 teenage kids and a father. I waited around for one of the Tesla kids to come over an introduce himself. When he did I asked him a couple of questions and said I heard a lot about the company but how many cars did they sell in the US. He said he thought it was 20,000 in 2014 in the US, but didn't know how accurate that was. He excused himself to ask one of the other people and came back to tell me They didn't know and Tesla hasn't revealed those numbers.
We spoke about the car and how long it would take to get a car. Then he hit me with a zinger. He said I could order a car exactly the way I wished, or take a car from inventory. I asked how large the inventory might be and he pulled out his hand-held computer and pulled up pages-and-pages of inventory. He said it was the Southeast inventory and it was over 600. He then said he thought Tesla had a few thousand previously built 4drs available for sale. He further mentioned some of those cars had 1-50 miles with a "great discount attached. We checked a few and the "discounts" ran from $2.80 per mile to $9.60. We checked 4 cars.
I asked him if he was paid commission or received a bonus for volume. He said they were hourly employees. I asked about trades and he said AutoNation helped with appraisals.
Well, there you have it!!
#1, it appears Tesla is NOT production constrained.
#2, it appears demand is NOT off the charts.
#3 it appears these kids in the stores (Mine started last week) are no different than those kids in any Apple store.
#4, Tesla has farmed out appraisals to a disinterested third party with nothing to lose by low-balling any trade. Kids, everything is EXACTLY as I've said for a long time! Tesla, the business, struggles mightily. US sales have truly stopped. Deposit list evaporated.
Back to 260+ before end of week. Catalyst will be new NEWS sometime this week!
In the longer run TSLA will be very similar to Netflix in share price movement - once it passes 300 it will be over 400 within 6 months.
keep insinuating that Tesla is going bankrupt. If you haven't noticed, the demand for their vehicles far outpaces their ability to supply them. I'm no econ major, but the last I checked that meant that the business was doing well. They obviously are not running out of money, because they have people lined up to hand them plenty of it (investors and customers). Despite what everyone wants to say about them, their vehicles are a significant breakthrough and will (one day) completely transform the entire automobile industry.
But, by all means, everyone just keep your eyes and ears shut and continue blabbering on and on about the company going bankrupt and the vehicles all catching on fire.
The secret to the Audi range is German-engineered electric motors instead of the cheap Chinese drive units that Tesla uses.
I can't and won't read your worthless messages. Crawl back under your rock and live life broke quietly. I saw you got divorced recently in the online news.
Space-X plans cheap internet satellite network. I believe this will have huge implications for Tesla.
Tesla is going to have a nice advantage (think SIRI-XM + DirecTV + OnStar + GPS) available just in time for their Model 3. I am sure there is a huge amount of synergy between SpaceX and Tesla on design of this network and capabilities. This is an advantage none of the major car OEM's have, although I'm sure SpaceX will be happy to license the tech to them in the long run. Tesla will be the only one with it's own global WAN (wide area network). Tesla is going to control the digital car space with the most advanced technology available, the revolution is just beginning. This will have implications for mobile internet synergy & connectivity, GPS-Autopilot, live updates, uninterrupted service. Each car will be a node in the private WAN network. Even a major failure of local internet service will have no effect on Tesla owners.
Shorts: Don't underestimate Tesla. Their long-term perspective keeps getting brighter and brighter.
377 year mania cycle of mesmerism ... perfectly repeated itself. Valuation in the clouds, no relation to reality. Daimler was the first biggie to recognize it, picked the Tulip flower and threw it out of its garden! Next, see the drama that unfolds....
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Clear, coherent sentence structure from that one. As any good grandparent would tell their grand-children "Tell the truth, then there is so much less to remember."
once every now and then, a company comes along that focuses on QUALITY. and i don't mean quality like toyota quality or starbucks. i mean the kind of quality that is the result of passion. you could say that steve jobs had that character. steely dan is another example, old marantz receivers, etc., and there are many others. let me tell you right now, QUALITY WINS ALWAYS. that kind of quality is always VERY successful. elon musk is one such person. with his billions and his passion he will make this company sing. it is almost inevitable. the sky is the limit here. one can't imagine what one guy with deep passion and lots of money can do, but you can bet that that person can dance circles around a calcified BMW, etc. Count me in bigtime.
Jim Cantrell, Entrepreneur, strategist and...
I helped Elon start the company and all of these answers are spot on. He still has my book on rocket propulsion.....
What I found from working with Elon is that he starts by defining a goal and he puts a lot of effort into understanding what that goal is and why it is a good and valid goal. His goal, as I see it, has not changed from the day he first called me in August of 2001. I still hear it in his speeches. His goal was to make mankind a multi planetary species and to do that he had to first solve the transportation problem.
Once he has a goal, his next step is to learn as much about the topic at hand as possible from as many sources as possible. He is by far the single smartest person that I have ever worked with ... period. I can't estimate his IQ but he is very very intelligent. And not the typical egg head kind of smart. He has a real applied mind. He literally sucks the knowledge and experience out of people that he is around. He borrowed all of my college texts on rocket propulsion when we first started working together in 2001. We also hired as many of my colleagues in the rocket and spacecraft business that were willing to consult with him. It was like a gigantic spaceapalooza. At that point we were not talking about building a rocket ourselves, only launching a privately funded mission to Mars. I found out later that he was talking to a bunch of other people about rocket designs and collaborating on some spreadsheet level systems designs for launchers. Once our dealings with the Russians fell apart, he decided to build his own rocket and this was the genesis of SpaceX.
So I am going to suggest that he is successful not because his visions are grand, not because he is extraordinarily smart and not because he works incredibly hard. All of those things are true. The one major important distinction that s
Maybe eventually you'll realize that it's not the company that's crazy, it's you that's crazy.
Why do you even try anymore? How long have you been on this forum, bashing Tesla? 3 years at least. So sad.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
First, Ford is 54B, not 5B so make the fact straight. Second, if it does not make sense to you, please short the stock because you can only make money by doing what you believe. I am so tired of seeing people like you whining about Tesla is overvalued because people should just do what they believe which is buy, hold, or sell. Whining just makes you sound weak like a crying baby. Be a man and short the stock and stop whining.
Read his latest tweet just a little over a half an hour ago. He's not beating around the bush. He's calling WSJ out on their flat-out wrong analysis of September sales.
a few things:
Tesla refuses to divulge specifics.
Tesla can't provide numbers for the past 90 days, but certainly CAN precisely pinpoint numbers 3 years forward.
Tesla confirmed there is no market research activity in any market anywhere in the world.
Tesla confirms yet another staggering loss. This time it's $75 million which means a potential 2014 loss in excess of $200 million. And this is a company where the CEO said two years ago Tesla could break even at 8,000 sales.
The fairy tales never seem to end, IMO.
he pumps Tesla nonstop, every time it drops on no news he has something to say about it. Now, after TSLA's worst 7 day stretch in the company's public history, he's telling everybody who is selling on the drop in crude that they are selling for the wrong reasons, as Tesla is a luxury vehicle -- yet just a month or two ago LeBeau was telling us how soon an affordable Tesla would be marketed and delivered to the masses who are environmentally conscious/green/savers... which is it fat head?
With no prior experience, Tesla has endless manufacturing problems. They recast this problem as a strength: “demand exceeds manufacturing capacity”.
The Battery Lie
Tesla claimed they could manufacture cars at a much higher rate if not for a “battery shortage”. Panasonic has delivered every battery order on time and never limited Tesla’s purchase quantities.
Retreat to New Markets
The CA market had an initial rush of buyers but then interest waned. Tesla was able to maintain the illusion of a shortage in CA by sending cars to new states. When the new state markets saturated, Tesla retreated to new countries like Norway. China was the last hope, but demand in China has proven exceptionally weak.
Losses and Cash Burn
Tesla needs a continual infusion of new cash just to keep operations going. Standard accounting statements in Tesla’s SEC reports document a severe operating loss and cash burn rate. Questionable non-GAAP adjusted accounting is used to claim profits that exist only in press releases.
Tesla hyperbole is legendary, including a Hollywood-style “reveal” for all-wheel drive! Tesla can’t manufacture 50,000 cars per year, would have difficulty selling that many cars, yet the Giggle Factory promises batteries for 500,000 cars. Tesla credibility and stock price peaked with the Giggle Factory.
Since Tesla promised a $40k car, many lower-priced competitors have arrived, and now BMW’s $42k luxury i3 is the most efficient production electric vehicle. Tesla still has nothing in this price range.
New Defects Discovered Daily
Tesla sales in Norway were loudly touted as a success. Now Tesla is quietly flying new replacement engines all the way to Norway.
Resale Guarantee Time Bomb
To stimulate sales, Tesla started a resale guarantee that portends a flood of used cars returning to Tesla in 2016. Will Tesla repurchase and scrap the cars, or dump them on the used car market?