Agree Bonk; people like tarules are absolute lunatics with these types of reactions. When pps is riding high they talk crazy. When pps is riding low they threaten management and talk crazier. People like this should cut their losses now and enjoy what they have left. Or shut up and add on these dips in the low 50s (and maybe below). Then they will really talk crazy should pps recover a bit. Isn't that the idea of investing in companies like this?
Tarules, close your eys and turn off your computer. Or sell. But stop with the bombardment of management. They will ignore as they know that's the dumbest move they could make now.
I'm adding as we dip and feeling quite good about it.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Agreed that a stick dividend is a foolish thing. In my view Hession made this deal because Total probably gave the most cash up front from any of the other deals. Problem is everyone wants this thing back up fast. Markets always overshoot. IT is overshot here.
The only way out fast is if they get sold to shell. That is unlikely. The drill bit is the only answer.
Wow. This would come across as a desperate and imprudent move.
Companys that have a large cash burn, a huge capex budget (drilling), and may have to come up with billions in capital for a share of an LNG project, should not (and won't, let's be honest) engage in such shenanigans.
IOC isn't exactly flush after this payment. Let's say 25% goes to IPI holders, that's $150M ballpark. The $70M convert is due in 11 months, so that's $220M spoken for. That leaves $393 - from this IOC will have to pay back whatever it's drawn down on the bridge loan in that time. $75M maybe????
Maybe they have $300M to play around with and that has to last them unitl FID in 2016 under Total's base case, and 2015 if you think the bonus payment will come in.
Will they have to pay out PRE?
That cash will be chewed pretty quick. I think it's absolutely insane to think they will do a dividend or buyback with one nickel of this money. RJ and MS are fools for suggesting it, and anyone who thinks it's realistic or even the right thing to do needs to have another swig of the moonshine.
My guess is if they even announced it the stock would tank as then liquidity problems would be back on the table.
I'll donate $5,000 to the charity of Kenny's choice if they do this.
I did something that I rarely do. Bought this junk in the $52s earlier. for a trade of course
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Good to see you have been listening to Warren Buffett, your quote was close lol.....
I suggest all longs contact the company to communicate this.
I have been doing a number of calculations based on different scenarios. In another thread, I agreed with many posts while suggesting an "AND" strategy needs to be developed. Meaning, exploration and monetization of current and future resources needs to continue at as rapid a pace as is feasible. AND the rampant manipulation of the pps needs to be curbed as much as possible. It is the fiduciary responsibility of management and the board to consider all possible options.
While others have proposed a takeover or going private transaction, I believe return of capital needs to be utilized. I suggest a 33% return of capital of the $612 million payable at closing in the form of a special dividend. Additionally, I suggest 33% of interim resource payment (approx $3.3 billion total based on GLJ best case) be used for a share buyback program.
IOC would still have sufficient capital for exploration and their non financed share of the CSP & LNG plants.
It's time to use a "bazooka" to unlock the enormous value of this company.
The best estimates of the resource we have are those of GLJ and GCA, not Total's.
You are not going to rely on TOT's or IOC's estimate. You want third party confirmation.
GCA is at 6.6T's. I believe there is virtually zero chance the resource is less.
Evan Calio has reintroduced himself as a very conservative fellow. We learn from our mistakes. He has left himself a lot of room to be aggressive in the future.
The stock will work through this period as the investor base turns over and begin to climb over the next few weeks. I think $80 is feasible some time in January which leaves 25% upside to Pavel's $100 target.
I believe the future only gets better. Great partner, cash in the bank, fabulous drilling prospects.
Investors are hurt and confused, great time and price to buy the stock.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
If isn't the leader of the shorts and his one liners. Some things never change.
It's always darkest right before things turn pitch black.
Really mark? A bully? SHU is pretty much stuffed with short conspiracy nonsense these last few days and I call B.S. Shorts likely covered in droves, actually helping support the stock on a net basis. Heck even Hempton said he covered on Friday.
When I read stuff like this:
"Regrettably, and I am dead serious about this, the power of the shorts trumps the resource in this very corrupt financial environment. I don't see that ending, ever. The only way I see to bring them to account is for a buy out to occur. Good for shareholders. Good for the good vs. evil adherents. In this case selling the company is the right thing to do."
"The elephant in the room is actually a 12 million share (pound) short gorilla. The estimates, drilling reports, sell down deals, etc. all are secondary when it comes to the share price because the IOC shorts are committed to holding the stock price in check regardless of the actual news or metrics."
"agree with Tarules. Shorts know they can hold pps down for next 15-18 months and create all kinds of strawmen in the process"
"As long as they can bomb the tape with 2-5 million naked short shares, it doesn't matter what the metrics are."
These are just from one thread. I feel obliged to call B.S., not to taunt, but people really need to try to learn something here. The deal metrics are very clear, Total's statements are clear, and it's clearly below what the company has hyped in the past, what touts promised, and what analysts wrote about. That's why it's down 40%+.
If the only lesson out of the thing is "ooooh these shorts are powerful" people are destined to get ball stomped (nod to moose) again and again.
and with more gas and oil to be found in the near future, and with the future filled with revenue streams coming in, the Company has a bright future. Sure shorts are winning now. They're having their fun, but it will soon be over, and the sick stock will get well because IOC will be seen as a healthy Company with growing revenues over the foreseeable future. They have the energy assets, and that market will only grow in Asia. And, IOC has the needed partner to develop and sell the assets. Income + growth! Stock price will have to go up over time. Patience will pay off, IMO. What do you think?
The deal is good. It is a fair deal with a great partner. The problem is what was built into the price from an expectations standpoint - valuation and timing. People were expecting a very high number on a very high Tcfe count, but instead get a much lower (yet completely reasonable) number on a lower baseline Tcfe number (5.4 Tcfe). Pretty simple.
I think a good rule of thumb for where IOC settles in at, and it seems to work well, is a lower trading range of 50% of Evan Calio's target price, and 50% of Evan Calio's upside case. I may run that math actually but it feels about right. That would be $42.50 to $52.50.
I'm a long for more than 4 years but it seems that the market doesn't like the deal..it's not gonna be a perfect Christmas..maybe it's time to wake up ioc management cause they did a poor job and there are to many questions. Meanwhile I'm adding...
When the stock pops on some B S short-lived hyped up hot air-filled good news like it did back in May, then thou shalt always SHORT the pop, especially when everyone is jumping with joy and singing it's praises.
And when it is gloomiest (like it is now) and the deal news was not as expected and everyone is ready to puke, that is the perfect time to BUY, when everyone is crying on how bad the stock is.
You do that, you have mastered Headfakery.
Sentiment: Strong Buy