The press release says that the $66 million is to be paid from revenues received from sales of petroleum.
69 years old and calling people morons on a yahoo message board is some kind of pathetic. Ask your grandkids to help you locate the ignore feature.
I think you misunderstand the agreement. If IOC does not pay PRE within 6 years, then IOC is in default and it will not simply be nothing to lose. Hession couldnt negotiate a deal like that if his life depended on it. Look at every other negotiation they have been involved in, it smells like John Kerry negotiating with the Iranians. You really have to ask the question: Whos side is he really on? Then you reallise the truth: Hession is on Team Hession, and the shareholders have not been invited to the game.
We shareholders should simply hold and hope that IOC will have to pay Pacific due to big revenues and profits! IOC has gained ownership share in those profits if they come, and lost nothing if they don't come.
So what , moron?
Did you find my interview / article in the WSJ?
Are you now stalking me ?
PS: Has been done before. You're not the first .
Save your energy: just ask Stavros on SHU.
In a article published in the NYT July 21, 1996 a famous yahoo poster is quoted as saying this nugget.
"It's not fun living on Rolaids.
Who said it?
Well my ramble was to show there are so many moving parts and much of it into the far future that no one can really determine a pps potential of course other than the $180 pps projection but that would be forever down the road after gas is sold. Maybe the sell it all to Japan and the value jumps at that time. So your perspective of the present is very accurate. The marketplace says $39 and has not begun even to sniff the certification payment which should provide a $40 per share increase if the predictions come true of 10T's or more. Patiently waiting. At least I bought a few shares in the $30's recently helped to lower that cost basis.
You know what they say about counting your chickens before they are hatched?
Your post made my head spin.
I don't even know where to begin but you know what came to my mind? : The voluminous spread sheets posted by Sam Tibbs ( a SHU guru and highly respected accountant, economist, teacher, consultant and an SHU elder ) in 2010 showing all sorts of numbers and assumptions and, based on future production ( ie 2015 !!!!! ) showed IOC should be selling at $400 by production ( yes,, you guessed it : 2015 !! ). His spreadsheets were the SHU bible for many years. JFT still uses them. LOL,LOL.
Well, you know the ending to that story.
I've been around here long enough to only look at the present and, at the present, there is risk. That is why the pps is $39 .
Right now, IOC is worth $39.
When, and IF Total FID's ( and there is no guarantee they will; only a good probability) and then 4 years later when the plant opens, then, and only then, will you be guaranteed to have made money on IOC.
That is a long , long time away.
Until then IOC is a high risk.
Personally, I doubt IOC survives to production and will be sold , for a disappointing amount, by Hession.
But, that's jmo .
So the assets are there and Hession values the full production at 9 billion dollars to IOC. At $20 per share per billion that does equate to $180 per share but when and there does not seem to be a straight line projection to those dollars. So we get certified for 10 T's lets say and that gets us another $30 per share by June and then the Final Investment decision gets us another $10 per share. So we have that $40 plus our $40 currently and the market has us at $80 per share. The other 7 billion that Hession mentions in the fact sheet is years and years into the future I think once the gas is moving off the island. So then we need to use $1.3 billion to fund the gas plant out of the $2.2 billion. About a billion in cash to drill pay off loans etc. So if we are going to continue revenue generation we absolutely need Triceratops or Raptor to be confirmed and saleable so that we can get Exxon to buy the third train from IOC. Well another 4 T's for rounding and go through the process which would be shorter due to the plant is built would garner another $20 per share maybe and then payments on the gas if they negotiate a good deal. So the $100 - $150 dream is not right around the corner. But my math and thinking could be way out of whack. So if someone is buying the whole enchilada how do they value billions into the future on the if come. I need some spin here. Anyone want to try. Understanding the current market is awful the risk is high and well the reward I do not think it has been clearly delineated.
The time to production ( and IF there will be production ) is the biggest unknown, hence the discount in the pps. Once that becomes clearer, the pps will respond (the assets are there ).
Good luck to you too; just be reasonable with your investment till things become clearer.
Ok, fair enough! As I have always written, IOC is a Risk stock hopefully with a high Reward. I would think you agree with that! True, until the goods are brought up and transferred, IOC remains a Risk stock. The only other option is a Buyout!
The Two Important questions for me: First, how much will IOC be able to produce in bringing it safely to the surface? Second, the time frame! If it is within 1+ less then 2 year limit it can very well be worth the wait. The longer it takes, obviously money could be invested in other stocks. As for a Buyout, I have no idea how the price of stock would be configured. From what I have seen, Buyouts can go in different directions. That is my simple take because I am a simple man. Good Luck!
I think IOC is a reasonable risk here but I wouldn't buy the shares .
I prefer selling way out of the money puts here ( a "chicken little" bullish investment).
There is no reason to buy the shares here unless you're "hoping" for a buyout.
"Hoping" is not investing. It is gambling.
Until the lng market shows signs of turning around, there is risk:
Risk that Total defers the project; AND , something which no one wants to mention:
Risk that Total procrastinates on the certification process.
(eg why is A4 side track taking soooooooooo long? ; when will A6 spud? , etc.)
The pps is now at $39 for a reason; reasons that fools like Ed want you to ignore.
Remember, he has been , continuously, predicting $100 for last two years , IN THE FACE OF ALL THE SIGNS POINTING TO THE RISKS. And people here just accept and applaud his predictions. That scares me.