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InterOil Corporation Message Board

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  • moose1960@ymail.com by moose1960 Oct 10, 2014 12:26 PM Flag

    “Outside of the U.S., we believe Papua New Guinea and East Africa may be the best placed regions to compete on cost competitiveness,” Goldman said."

    Mouse

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Not only is he embarrassing himself and others but being off by a year on the GCA report, now he is saying:

    "OSH made this bet on Interoil
    Oil Search paid $900 million cash for 23 percent of Elk/ Antelope plus agreed to pay another .77 cents per mcf over 7 T's. Assume the worst there are no more assets found. So using OSH paid in amount the Interoil is worth $3.9 billion today . Whats the current market cap ? Answer $2.3 Billion. Or based on the OSH price paid Interoil today is worth $77 a share. Was Botten wrong??? OSH's Botten also sees upside if they win the arbitration with Total .

    Mr Market will figure this out."

    Kenny has just inadvertently agreed completely with the Seeking Alpha article. He uses $900M / 0.23 to value IOC at $3.9 Billion. BUT he forgets that IOC has sold 40% of E/A it to Total now and IOC only owns 36.5% - so that wacko math is actually $1.4B, not $3.9B.

    "Stick to the facts" indeed....

    Sentiment: Hold

  • "Never hold it when you shoulda sold it!"

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • I hope Whitney or Stevie or who ever puts a couple extra dollars in this week's envelope. Congratulations on congratulating yourself for yelling fire in a crowded energy theater.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • bonk. I agree with your argument.

  • FAIR ENOUGH

  • Total is only willing to pay for 3.5 Tcfe up front. -STRUCTURE OF THE DEAL... SAYING THAT IS ALL THEY ARE WILLING TO DO IS A SPIN. AS IS THAT THERE IS ONLY 5 TCFE AS IS THERE IS UNCAPPED UPSIDE
    There is a material chance that a disappointing A4 and A5 will peg it there - OIL SEARCH AND TOTAL PER WHAT THE FORMER PAID AND THE LATTER HAS RECENTLY SAID IN PUBLIC CLEARLY CONTRADICT THIS. WE SHALL SEE
    The money IOC has received from Total is all they would get in such an event - SEE ABOVE
    That money is being flushed down the toilet on risky expensive wells that are months overdue and one already suspended - WE DO NOT KNOW WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN SPENDING SO THAT IS CONJECTURE AT THIS POINT
    There is no refinery or downstream to fall back on now - BEST THING THEY DID. WAS NEVER A MONEYMAKER
    The convert is due next year- CONVERTING TO MORMONISM?
    Zero is not out of the question -THAT IS THE SAME AS SAYING THAT 300 IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION- I WOULD ARGUE 300 MORE LIKELY THEN ZERO. THERE IS A WHOLESALE VALUE TO AN OIL SEARCH OR AN EXXON OR A TOTAL. OIL SEARCH PAID THE EQUIVALENT OF 62 DOLLARS A SHARE FOR IOC. WE ARE AT A MAJOR DISCOUNT TO EVEN THAT. AT SOME POINT THE PRICE WOULD BE "STUPID CHEAP" AS THEY SAY FOR EXXON NOT TO JUST BUY. ZERO IS CERTAINLY OUT OF THE QUESTION.

  • I'm sure the author would appreciate your compliment. IMHO if one were "desperate" to bring down the price of IOC, one would make a stronger argument along the lines of:

    Total is only willing to pay for 3.5 Tcfe up front.
    There is a material chance that a disappointing A4 and A5 will peg it there
    The money IOC has received from Total is all they would get in such an event
    That money is being flushed down the toilet on risky expensive wells that are months overdue and one already suspended
    There is no refinery or downstream to fall back on now
    The convert is due next year
    Zero is not out of the question

    That's what I'd argue if I were desperate to bring down the price.

  • No production
    no reserves
    no credibility
    lng glut in asia mkt

  • away from our 52 week low. Congrats Longs its been a great year!!!
    Dr Mike doing his best for us!!!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • "....As oil prices plunge, it is the longs, not the shorts, who are looking vulnerable.

    In late September, the speculative long positions on U.S. oil prices – West Texas intermediate (WTI) is the benchmark – was about 420,000 contracts (each contract represents 1,000 barrels). The short positions amounted to only about 130,000 contracts, putting the net speculative long position at 290,00 contracts. That net position is extremely high, historically speaking.

    What do the longs see that the shorts do not? They could be gambling on an imminent bounce-back in prices. Or they could be dead wrong.

    To be sure, the oil glut in North America is not as extreme as it appears elsewhere on the planet; fed by surging shale oil production, newly expanded refineries in the United States are running flat out and exporting a lot of their output, narrowing the traditional price gap between WTI and Brent crude, the latter being the effective global benchmark. But the overall picture has not been encouraging for traders who are betting that oil prices will reverse themselves.

    On Wednesday, prices for WTI and Brent fell again, by more than 1 per cent each. The collapse of Brent has been a stunner. The price for November deliveries was just below $91 (U.S.) a barrel, for a one-year decline of 17.5 per cent. All of the decline has come since July...." ( Globe and Mail )

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Looks to me that you are desperate to bring the price down of IOC. I don't believe your article makes any new great points or revelations. It also will not make any dents in anything.

    That being said you are a great writer. I especially like the Simon and Garfunkel quotes. If you ever want to make some spare change I would hire you to write for my blog.

  • very informative.....

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • LNG Buyers Pact Signals Assault on Asia Prices as Supplies Swell
    By Chou Hui Hong Oct 10, 2014 12:33 AM ET - BLOOMBERG

    LNG producers facing competition from U.S. exports now have to contend with the biggest buyers in Asia banding together to beat down prices.

    Tokyo Electric Power Co. (9501) and Chubu Electric Power Co. (9502) announced a partnership this week that may create the world’s biggest consumer of liquefied natural gas. The alliance follows a trend among Asian utilities to boost purchasing power through tie-ups with rivals, according to Wood Mackenzie Ltd. Tokyo Gas Co. and Korea Gas Corp. last month said they’ll start talks to cooperate in fuel purchasing to reduce prices.

    Global supply of the power-station fuel is forecast to increase by almost 80 percent over the next decade as the shale boom prompts the U.S. to start exporting and producers including Chevron Corp. and BG Group Plc (BG/) begin projects in Australia. Asian companies are looking to take the opportunity to bargain for lower prices after they jumped to a record this year.

    “The sheer volume of potential purchasing power must give them a huge negotiating advantage for price in new sales and purchase agreements, particularly as they are looking to new projects in Mozambique, Canada and now Alaska,” said Leigh Bolton, managing director of Holmwood Consulting Ltd., a Surrey, England-based energy consultant.

    Tepco and Chubu Electric, Japan’s two biggest buyers, will form a joint venture by the end of March for thermal-power generation and fuel imports, they said in a statement on Oct. 7. This will improve their bargaining position with suppliers, according to Chubu Electric President Akihisa Mizuno...

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Nothing original and dripping with ego, sarcasm, and failed humor while further exposing a negative agenda. A big "meh."

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    test 45

    by ioc.aussie Oct 10, 2014 5:45 AM

    off by 10.00

    35 learn

  • looks like another bum smacking ... whats the good DR H going to do in this transformational stage of the company.
    same as usual .... zilch
    Stock would gain 10 bucks on his removal.
    Buyout offers mid seventies

  • Reply to

    No News Is Not Good News

    by mspieks Oct 9, 2014 9:54 PM

    I have to agree with you. The PPS drop could have been somewhat avoided if the good DR H had been more astute and fed the market, directly or indirectly, a few little gems when required. Its a disgrace to see this company in this position with nothing to report on the near horizon. It is a long long haul to drag this thing back to a decent PPS value. The market has sure lost confidence .... I wonder what the major shareholders know... for them to hang tight ..... or do they know something we dont.?

  • moose1960@ymail.com by moose1960 Oct 9, 2014 10:28 PM Flag

    Why come when the PPS was in the 80's you said Mr. Market is always right, but now that it is in the 40's you say:

    “Outside of the U.S., we believe Papua New Guinea and East Africa may be the best placed regions to compete on cost competitiveness,” Goldman said."

    What's the deal with that?

    Mouse

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    No News Is Not Good News

    by mspieks Oct 9, 2014 9:54 PM
    moose1960@ymail.com moose1960 Oct 9, 2014 10:23 PM Flag

    When confronted by the reality of the situation, guys like kenny and choady respond thusly:

    "Outside of the U.S., we believe Papua New Guinea and East Africa may be the best placed regions to compete on cost competitiveness,” Goldman said."

    So they have that going for them, which is good.

    Mouse

    Sentiment: Hold

IOC
50.50+1.86(+3.82%)Oct 17 4:04 PMEDT

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