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Highpower International, Inc. Message Board

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  • Reply to

    Hpj intends to enter the ESS market by EOY

    by bigfredli Aug 28, 2015 12:34 AM
    elpasojet@sbcglobal.net elpasojet Aug 28, 2015 10:11 PM Flag

    The most important event is the status of equipment installation this quarter, we can't find any update during conference call. they only showed nickel battery revenue is slowing while lithium battery revenue increase did not cover the short fall. The use prudent expansion to explain the slow rate of growth.

    They can't provide evidence that HPJ is still on track with their guidance and brought up possible new revenue source on portable ESS with no detail to show assurance that potential buyers are there on an untested product that still requires alteration to meet spec.

    That is why they can only tell us that HPJ is still on target to buy more time. This November report is critical because they start to loss their investors due to the lack of growth, pricing power and their solution to their "HIGHLY LEVERAGE" business,

    I hope to see that margin improvement is structural and permanent, no further discount erosion, new equipment is in place to produce more and beat guidance top and bottom line next conference call.

    HPJ cannot do well if they still a small generic battery producer among sea of gaint from the developed world where HPJ is being out size in CAPEX, fund raising either through borrowing or printing new stock share.

    Even at $2 per share and they can't attract investor from buying the stock. Shanghai went up 300 points and HPJ still trading 10 cents from the bottom.

    Where is the real news?

  • Reply to

    Hpj intends to enter the ESS market by EOY

    by bigfredli Aug 28, 2015 12:34 AM

    Net Share Purchase Activity
    Insider Purchases - Last 6 Months
    Shares Trans
    Purchases 15,200 3
    Sales 132,030 1
    Net Shares Purchased
    (Sold) (116,830) 4
    Total Insider Shares Held 6.17M N/A

    From Yahoo u r right again Elpaso....even insiders sold.
    If we were in trouble I would understand this but I believe the lack of PRs is doing us in. While it is disappointing about the insiders sale they still own over 6 millions shares mostly by 2 big holders. Since I did not watch the action today at all I appreciate your observation.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Hpj intends to enter the ESS market by EOY

    by bigfredli Aug 28, 2015 12:34 AM

    Mutual Fund Share Purchases 28.1K 35.6K
    Mutual Fund Shares Sold 102.9K 72.7K
    Net Mutual Fund Shares Purchased -74.8K -37.1K

    u r right....the above illustration is the holdings from m.f. and institutions from Fidelity. The first column is "current quarter" and the second column is "previous quarter". While I am sure it does not include today''s action, it shows the disappointment of the big boys. Morgan Stanley owns less than 10k SHARES.

    Like all current holders, I am just hoping for good EPS to repeat.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Hpj intends to enter the ESS market by EOY

    by bigfredli Aug 28, 2015 12:34 AM
    elpasojet@sbcglobal.net elpasojet Aug 28, 2015 11:12 AM Flag

    The number from the analyst doesn't have margin upgrade and his revenue at high end is at $160MM, guidance of high end range is $170MM and management claimed that they should reach it this year during last conference call. The current drought is basically some big holding of HPJ is being unloaded in the past 2.5 months and still continuing.

  • Reply to

    Hpj intends to enter the ESS market by EOY

    by bigfredli Aug 28, 2015 12:34 AM
    elpasojet@sbcglobal.net elpasojet Aug 28, 2015 10:57 AM Flag

    I believe someone is unloading HPJ for a while now even at current low price because there is hardly any shorting in HPJ. Everyone of my Chinese holdings are up except for HPJ. I feel that HPJ probably is under pressure to perform because of unimpressive performance of past 3 quarters. Where are those big order after gaining so many big name clients.

    They keep very quiet on those battery project on drone, CAPEX, expansion and everything else is all wrapped up just with a one sentence "we reiterate current year's guidance at the upper range" which means nothing unless is backed up by news.

    Trading wise, they are still unloading this morning, 3,700 shares, 3,600 shares in 10 minutes & 10,000 shares were unloaded in total.

  • Reply to

    Hpj intends to enter the ESS market by EOY

    by bigfredli Aug 28, 2015 12:34 AM

    I understand that margin is very good in ESS. Your estimate of 47 cents for 2015 is about 50% higher that Yahoo's 1 analyst of 32 cents. So I average that to 40 cents and we are north of 5 p.e for 2015. Let's hope that gross margin of 1.9% improvement is permanent because of the new facility.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Hpj intends to enter the ESS market by EOY

    by bigfredli Aug 28, 2015 12:34 AM
    elpasojet@sbcglobal.net elpasojet Aug 28, 2015 10:06 AM Flag

    They said they will use the own brand name to sell them to Europe, but the still have to do some changes to meet to spec requirement. Did not disclose how they are going to sell these ESS, but it should happen at the end of this year. Not enough information was disclosed to assess the feasibility of this new revenue source. If they don't come up with better number this second half, it is very hard to believe in what they have said, the only analyst's coverage is all over the place, those number from YAHOO doesn't even add up with low end revenue prediction.

  • Does anybody know more about this?...How are they to sell them? Do they have orders? What kind of ESS?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • and this is a growing company in a rapidly growing sector so it should trade WELL above book value. big run up is coming, and it may come from a forthcoming PR that is about due. meanwhile, keep gathering shares as it drops.

  • Reply to

    fidelity now says pe under 9 and EPS 30 cents

    by bigfredli Aug 20, 2015 11:05 AM
    elpasojet@sbcglobal.net elpasojet Aug 23, 2015 9:41 AM Flag

    This stock is so thinly traded that between MM, hedge fund and China current economic condition, the stock can go up and down a few dollars in a hurry. Unless management lies about their progress and its gross margin, this stock should not trades below book value or a PE of less than 10. Ten thousand shares and they pushed down the stock price by 30 cents? What is that?

    When share price becomes so cheap, big money can drive this unknown foreign unloved company any where they want. That is why $1.50 is possible not that it make a lot of sense unless one assumes Chinese economy goes to hell this year.

    I believe HPJ said in conference call that they bought receivable insurance. I am sure banks require it because of heavy leverage condition of HPJ. Debt versus tangible asset is almost 3:1. HPJ can't sustain prolong averse economic condition with such thin margin in highly competitive environment with so little
    capital. May be those PMI lousy number pushed HPJ to the edge because of their debt load.

    Just two weeks ago they still claimed that their guidance of this year will stand and probably at the high end of the range. This quarter is the peak season on revenue count. After three disappointing quarterly report, this quarter should be good because management still sounds condiment.

    With current market turn world wide and next ER is 2.5 months away, this market can push HPJ down to mid or low $1 if they choose to unless we see support, there is not heavy buying interest on last hour on Friday. Small cap Chinese stock with down market in China? Anything can happen next week, up or down big.

  • Reply to

    fidelity now says pe under 9 and EPS 30 cents

    by bigfredli Aug 20, 2015 11:05 AM

    Wish you luck that it goes to 1.50?...Well it might happen, who knows?. The only analyst in Yahoo following HPJ lowered his estimate in the last 30 days for both of coming quarters. He is estimating 13c vs 14 cents last year and revenue of 46.6 mill in September and 43 millions in December. (Much lower than your estimates). However for some reason he raised recently next year EPS by 1 penny. Did we have capitulation on Friday?..I am surprised that in HPJ financials there is no mention of Receivables. Given the China economy it might take them longer to collect. We definitely do not want to break 2 dollars. I only see the abyss to one dollar.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    fidelity now says pe under 9 and EPS 30 cents

    by bigfredli Aug 20, 2015 11:05 AM
    elpasojet@sbcglobal.net elpasojet Aug 21, 2015 8:24 PM Flag

    It all depends on how well the Chinese market can do to defend the 3,500 Sunday night. This company is so unloved by the U.S. market and it shows. Disappointed revenue growth, deep discount in first quarter and drop in revenue last quarter did not help. It is still 3 months before the next ER, sell off might continue further.

  • Reply to

    fidelity now says pe under 9 and EPS 30 cents

    by bigfredli Aug 20, 2015 11:05 AM

    look at the 2 yr chart. it looks like late 2013 early 2014 it hit 2.12 twice. i am not calling this the bottom because the 2.65 line in the sand was a mirage.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    fidelity now says pe under 9 and EPS 30 cents

    by bigfredli Aug 20, 2015 11:05 AM
    elpasojet@sbcglobal.net elpasojet Aug 21, 2015 3:20 PM Flag

    I bought some today & my next big buy will be mid $1 if they want to drill it down there. Wish me LUCK.

    Next ER is in mid November, this should be their best quarter with over $50MM in revenue & EPS of 17 cents. If their margin is staying at 22.3%, their earning should be 23 cents.

    Why retail sell if their EPS is around 40 cents this year instead of buying at current price? Unless HPJ is cooking their book, 50% of their revenue is outside China. Is the whole world going into recession starting today?

  • Got rid of my old service and now thanks to PennyStock101 (org). Do a Google search for them, I am up more than $6,500

  • Reply to

    fidelity now says pe under 9 and EPS 30 cents

    by bigfredli Aug 20, 2015 11:05 AM

    I have 27k investment maturing mid next month....so no I did not buy. The question is, do i wait to buy in december when people sell for tax loss or will we have news before that?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    fidelity now says pe under 9 and EPS 30 cents

    by bigfredli Aug 20, 2015 11:05 AM
    elpasojet@sbcglobal.net elpasojet Aug 21, 2015 11:51 AM Flag

    Did you buy some today? Just curious.

  • Stop/losses, margin calls, tax loss captures, index tracking trades and fear have made this the buy of the decade. Right here, right now, load up and go enjoy the day... Double plus from here in Spring.

  • Reply to

    fidelity now says pe under 9 and EPS 30 cents

    by bigfredli Aug 20, 2015 11:05 AM

    Thank you for correcting my English. Yes, there are some people who say "I will never buy a Chinese stock". Others are now saying "I will never buy an oil stock". At some point there is great value and it might take a year or two to be proven right. Remember Baron de Rothchild saying
    "when the blood flows in the street it is time to buy property".

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    fidelity now says pe under 9 and EPS 30 cents

    by bigfredli Aug 20, 2015 11:05 AM

    "fidelity" doesn't say anything. they have their data provider just like Y! has their data provider. maybe the EPS difference is simply a rounding issue?

    at the end of the day, it's a Chinese company, and that's a black mark. most investors will stay away, and those who invested previously will generally get to the point of believing they've been duped.

    if this were to trade as other China-based companies, you're going to see the PE go below 3. it may very well happen.

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