thank the buyback and good earnings for that. Silver is acting VERY weak, and if that continues, PAAS will be back down at 10 bucks for sure. Im back on the long side at 12.25 after taking over 20% last week and watching very very carefully.
Actually, there are a lot of good things happening for miners right now. Currency devaluations will cause costs to go down, M/E costs are lower, labor cost, in the form of consultants are lower, energy cost are off their highs. What we are seeing right now with EM currencies is a flight to safety, but can anyone really argue that the USD and the JPY are safe long term when both governments need 6%/year growth over the next 10 years to pay their debts. What happens then the markets wants to find safety from the current "safe" currencies. Won't happen next week, but it will happen.
Also kind of interesting that gold, which has been doing a bit better as of late, gets wacked today. Sort of like someone trying to tell us that gold is not a safe currency. Talk is cheap and paper gold is cheaper.
you are contradicting yourself!! anything can happen with the mkt...ANYTHING! PAAS can beat 25 bucks in 6 months, PAAS can be at 4 bucks in 6 months.
Silver better get above 20 quick for the longs sake.
Something smells fishy here. PAAS keeps steadily outperforming the rest of the mining sector. UP today vs. -2% or -3% in other miners. I fully expect someone is buying ahead of a "known" takeover announcement. Of course we dont' KNOW what is coming, but somebody does? With all the cash on hand and mines that would compliment a long list of other miners' wish lists, the question is at what price for PAAS? $15 would be cheap, $18-$20 would be a good number I suppose.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
well here we go - maybe. silver is just starting to curl lower and touched 19.15 or so. gold at 1242 would only take a couple of blow off / down days to approach 1100. silver likewise could hit upper 17. slv miners can't easily stay afloat with an average slv price q1 of 19.00. their balance sheets are very sick and would get worse. still we are approaching a major bottom this spring imho and can only make money in the next couple of years after the final squeeze out at the upcoming bottom. risk reward ratio is not bad at all. as for options and leverage. buy a 1/15 $5 or $8 leap option at this possible final bottom in march or so - depending on your risk aversion - and at least trade in and out of it or just hang on for long term leveraged appreciation imho. be careful and make money. regards.
Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT
The non-static, changing correlation between precious metals and the broader general stock-market equities is something we examine when things don't follow our chosen strategy over the past few years.
The mainstream is entirely oblivious to the fact that gold stocks (and precious metals) can have rip-roaring bull markets when equities are in a bear market. The precursor to this is two-fold: precious metals are in a secular bull and the correlation between the two has been negative for more than a year. The current negative correlation has been in place for more than two years and now gold stocks have bottomed (in our view) and equities are looking toppy.
There are several examples of this negative correlation. Gold stocks soared from 1973-1974 when the S&P 500 was cut in half. The same thing happened from 2000 to 2002. Also, gold stocks for over 18 months in 1977-1978 began a new cyclical bull market while the S&P 500 declined 19%. This scenario has happened three times: twice in the last bull market and once in the current bull market.
Recent market action suggests that this negative correlation will continue but in favor of precious metals and also hard assets. In the chart below we plot the S&P 500, GDX and CCI (commodities). Since the end of summer in 2011 there has been a clear negative correlation between equities and gold stocks as well as equities and commodities.
The tide appears to be shifting as today GDX closed at a two-month high while the S&P 500 closed at a two-month low. A few days ago, CCI closed at a two and a half month high. Conventional thinking could lead you to believe that equity weakness would be a negative for precious metals. While that was the case in 2008, the negative correlation from 2011-2013 and recent price action suggest precious metals (and gold stocks in particular) will benefit from a bear market in the general equity markets.
Whether equity weakness will be a negative for PM's as in 2008 will probably depend on whether we experience a liquidity crisis (as we did in 2008) or a solvency crisis. With Yellen at the helm, I can't see it proving to be a liquidity crisis over the longer term, hence my belief in PM's as a good investment during this cycle.
Atomic, you have the courage of your convictions. I'll be happy when you write to tell us that you've added to your profitable long position!
Von, We are pleased that your theorum regarding $17/sh price targets for PanAm remain potential objectives. Good hunting!
I don't own enough of you to get excited about at anything under 30 so that's out for a while. You were really looking a giant turd for so very long and now you are gonna decide to show them who is boss. You gotta be shittin' me Pyle! You promised me sub 8 dollar shares! Your nothing but a dividend play now. For me anyways I guess. 30 or 3. One or the other. Pick a side. I will honestly take either one but please don't bounce between 9 and 17 for years to come you filthy POS.
Maybe that's what silver miners should do, borrow one billion at low interest rates and just keep buying as silver prices will have to go higher no matter what with all the printing of inflation.
From Seeking Alpha: Feb 3
From Seeking Alpha:
Silver and gold stored in CME warehouses can fall into two categories: Eligible and Registered.
Eligible metals are those that conform to the exchange's requirements of size (1000 ounce bars for silver and 100 ounce bars for gold), purity, and refined by an exchange approved refiner. Eligible metals are stored at COMEX warehouses on behalf of banks or private parties, but are not available for delivery for a futures contract.
Registered metals are similar to eligible metals except that these metals are also available for delivery to settle a futures contract. COMEX issues a daily report on gold, silver, copper, platinum, and palladium stocks, which lists all the metal that is currently stored in COMEX warehouses and how much eligible and registered metal is present.
This information allows investors insight into how much metal is currently backing COMEX futures contracts, what large gold and silver owners are doing with their metals, and how many clients are requesting delivery of their metals.
This Week's Changes: Registered Gold Gains But Eligible Gold Sees Large Withdrawals For Second Straight Week the total 622,760 gold ounces that left COMEX warehouses in January made it the largest month for total withdrawals since April 2013 - in the midst of the gold plunge!
For investors looking for higher leverage to the gold price, they may want to consider miners such as Goldcorp (GG), Agnico-Eagle (AEM), Newmont (NEM), or even some of the explorers and silver miners such as Pan American Silver (PAAS). One thing we do know is that we remain close to all-time lows in terms of registered gold and it doesn't seem like any entities are depositing much gold into the warehouses to replenish stocks. With such low inventories we can only wonder what would happen if some extraordinary event brought wider investor interest back into gold - there may not be enough to go around at these prices.
PAAS slipped back a bit, but I'm holding as a hedge on market jitters. Also trippled up on TVIX. Very risky, but so far paying off with all of this volatility.
Market jitters doesn't seem to bother traders. They worship volitility and they've gotten it in both directions. PanAmerican silver is the little train that could. Good chugging for all on a February weekend.
OK, now I'd say we have a very well defined cup and handle chart pattern going back to Sept 2013. looks like a few days close over 13.12 will be a breakout. Notice that the high today (so far) stopped right at that number.