$45-48 looks to be a decent place/price to add....but, in truth, only the BB (and the overall market) will determine the best place/price.
I'm not concerned in any way about the increased losses reported as the company is adding personnel, new technology through its partnership and continues to speak out more favorably about its pipeline and ADCETRIS potential.
I would outright say that they overenphasis on CD33a conveyed overconfidence in that the FDA will be again compelled to approve afr PII.
As a shareholder it is comforting to know that this crew is overseing m investment.
They are sharp as a wip and on the ball and focused on the prizes rather than patting themselves on the back.
Highly unusual to start talks with the FDA on a drug at completion of only phase 1. I thought the data looked good from the last two abstracts on 33a bearing in mind that a MTD still had not yet been reached in the phase 1 dose escalation study.
In yesterdays CC they must have said " encouraging " and " strong" at least a dozen times when referring to 33a. If the ADC holds true to pre-clinical form I can envision PFS being vastly better with 33a than current treatment regimens, especially in the unfit AML population. Actually the words strong and encouraging sounded more like understatements as mgmt. here has always tried to play it cool. Regardless, AML is a huge unmet need with a good chance of greatly accelerated approval on strong data.
I think the Adcetris program is moving ahead nicely, and the DLBCL data looks very strong, but it is sure nice to see the dialogue moving beyond just Adcetris and getting some focus on the pipeline.
From Conference Call: "we believe ADCETRIS will become a blockbuster product. And so that's one thing that we're doing."
Not seen that level of confidence that it will be a product before in previous CC. In addition CD30+ new indications are moving smoothly. In spite of the run this year, it is still a bargain. Although I have a huge position I decided I will add on dips.
It's had to put up a fight on most days for the past couple of weeks. Low volume is allowing people to drop the pps at will. If the fed decides to raise rates, I think SGEN will take a bigger beating than most.
Nice find...But holy sh*t, it is a ton of information to wade through. Also, leaves out SGEN's approved ADC. Fails to highlight the fact that SGEN technology is heavily licensed in other companys' programs.
I stumbled into an ADC presentation by burrill at SWOG and was salivating while looking at graphs and figures of trial results for ADCs. Google "AMG 172 RCC" and it should be one of the hits. Makes me want to believe that SGEN pps might hit $70 by Dec.
UBS upped their PT from 45 to 52.
They viewed the front line opportunity of Adcetris as discounted and think that the wholly owned candidates aren't priced in to the stock. As upcoming catalysts they were focused primarily on SGN CD 33a and LIV1a, with some additional focus on label expansion with the AETHERA and ALCANZA results in HL and CTCL respectively.
LIV!a does represent the companys first big market drug candidate. This phase 1 study has been recruiting for nearly 2 years now and as of my check late last week, they are still recruiting patients. While LIV1 is a novel unproven target, the fact recruitment has continued for nearly 2 years could either mean they are having difficulty getting patients for the study or that the drug is showing benefit and they are still accepting recruits.
I expect ASH this year may be ripe with Adcetris expansion abstracts as well as important 33a updates. UBS expects the LIV1a data to also be presented this Dec at SABC.
Any estimates on how much additional revenue will be possible with the BLA label expansion? Logic would tell me that approval should mean a pop but it could also be one of those sell on the news type events, although the eternal optimist in me is expecting it to go higher with approval and exceed its all time high. Personally I wouldn't be surprised to see 60's shortly after approval as long as the overall market doesn't tank. I am also hopeful that we get news before the 8/15 deadline since it seems as if that has been happening more lately.
SGEN is one of those rare biotech stocks IMO that even though the unforeseen can happen, it still seems to me to be cheap with its pipeline and success with Adcentris. The BB's kept buying and now hold a very large chunk of shares and if it is good enough for them, it is good enough for me. I fully expect a buy out in the next 3-5 years at substantially higher prices. If RCPT can be purchased for more than SGEN's current market cap, what is our true potential in 3-5 years? RCPT goes from under $35 to over $30 in a year with its buyout price set at $7.2 billion with no approved drugs? We have an approved drug, how many partnerships, how many ongoing phase 1, 2, and 3 trials and are valued at less?
I have been a believer in SGEN for many years and it represents my single largest investment and I figure some day in the next couple of years if it stays independent that long, it alone could finance my kids education as well as a comfortable retirement, especially since I have most of my shares in Roth IRA accounts. GLTA and let's hope the FDA does the correct thing, and does it early, and expands the use of Adcentris. The other big hope is that the street treats it as good news and not a reason to sell on the news.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Exactly my opinion kool. The Bakers are in no hurry and they know the worth of the pipeline. the trajectory of PCYC comes to mind. At least 3-4 years before the sale, but in the meantime enjoy a heathy SP rise/yr and be patient. This the reason why SGEN is my largest biotech holding and I am still adding small on dips.