Speaking from personal experience, current SOC is quite brutal. It works so I'm glad that it existed when I needed it but given all that I have read about Adcetris it is a leapfrog with even better results, milder in the pain and suffering and with minimal if any long term side effects. So it is hard to envision how anyone would chose SOC over Adcetris.
It's like Adcetris was custom made for cd-30 T-Cell. I think single-agent Adcetris could easily match current frontline in sALCL. Save all that toxic #$%$ for relapse and start with the best.
I wish they had included sALCL in the in 60+ frontline. I think once that is approved it will open the door a crack for the majority of HL since most are 60+. What patient wouldn't want Adcetris first?
There must be a lot of reasons a person can't tolerate current front-line. or just refuse it.
Definetly moving to frontline in the MatureT/NK Lymphomas.
Frontline CHOP produces a CR rate of 39-53%.
Adcetris + Chop produced an ORR of 100% and CR of 88%.
We always had great results with ALCL, but all 7 non ALCL patients experienced a CR.
Read the abstract info on the ASH web site. Really amazingly great news. Too much to even begin to post.
A few impressions:
In the 60+ front line trial... A 94 year old female with stage4 HL was not only able to tolerate Adcetris but achieved CR. Overall; 82% ORR 64% CR. Many still in treatment. Their prognosis was poor.
Some of the first B-Cell results; 40% ORR, 7 CR's
In the relapse after transplant; 33+ months and still counting.
In the heavily pretreated, many refactory ALL cd19 phase1; About 30% ORR, 1 CR. Some still in treatment. Higest dose 1.6 mg/kg. This is just going to get better. These folks are very sick and out of options.
Read it for yourself to get it right.
I think Adcetris label expansion is a done deal in every indication.
Just my opinion
It was a short at $49, not so much here. If SGEN traded inline with fundamentals they'd be right. They may be looking for a data drought in early '14 that may coincide with a market sell off. That puts this at risk for a few months. I've hedged for that. I'm a buyer of a pull back because any positive cd19 data (CR's) will send this soaring. I could be wrong but I believe SAR 3419 hasn't produced a single CR. SGEN said when it comes to ALL and NHL you need to see a lot of CR's not PR's...that's what the market wants to see.(paraphrased) I believe they believe it's gonna happen. With 20,000 NHL deaths per year, cd19 could be a multi billion drug out of the chute. I've been a critic of the pipeline in the past but now think SGEN has found the winning recipes.
The market may also underestimate CTCL as it is just about 2000 per year but most CTCL patients live a long time. My estimate is 25,0000+ living with the diseases. Most are in various degree of relapse. 20% of that group is about 3-5 times the current approved indications.
These are just my thoughts and estimates.
Year end tax selling could have contributed to the short sellers willing to take the risk to outright sell SGEN. However, their risk profile better have been taken against profits on their P and L because the risk at these levels to be short is unquantifiable. The fact several more weeks have transpired means more clinical data has been collected and that much closer to being released. ...... Your assessment and your observations are so in tune with explaining the price action it begs that an investor should now be aggressively adding to his position. The upside is very much significant. -- Drug Synthesizer
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Not that it matters much for my investment objectives in SGEN but for the first time in a while the short interest reversed course and increased by ~ 1 million shares in the 2 weeks between Oct 30 and Nov 15. Enough to justify a good fraction of the SP drop since it happened on very low volume days. Given that and the prevailing market conditions during that time, I'm interpreting it as an opportunistic action by the remaining shorts to crater the SP in an effort to contain a probable significant leg up in the coming weeks by having it start from lower levels.
What do you think Maui?
I've noticed that, too. When my other biotechs are up, SGEN is down. And vice versa. And with no new news. Not sure what to make of it, other than maybe the intermittent manipulation of biotechs that we sometimes experience. Don't get me wrong - I get a little frustrated myself, and I'd love for SGEN to go up every day or at least return to near $50, just like everyone else. But, having been in SGEN since the $7-9 range, I'm in a particularly thankful frame of mind this Thanksgiving Day. :)
I realize this sounds a bit paranoid, but it seems like someone is buying up certain biotech stocks after a price decline and selling them a few days letters sending the prices down again. Short sellers? Day traders? SGEN is down almost $1 today. It was up a buck and change yesterday, right? No news driving those moves. At the same time, other biotechs that I own and/or watch are up sharply today after collapsing a few days ago. Again, no news driving those changes. Not even a word from that crackpot Cramer. What gives?
scr2002, with all respect, SGEN is up 62 percent year-to-year - and the investment thesis not only remains consistent, it actually continues to improve. I really wouldn't sweat the minor day-to-day gyrations.
I have a bunch of cheap CLDX shares. Paid for and some profit taken--hoping for some good news next week.
But SGEN, which I've also held for a while, seems to be stuck around the $40 mark. Some good news about 33A might give it a boost.
Thanks, Redhot. My people and i have already figured out your insights carry some considerable weight here. The banter between you and Maui is esp. thought-provoking. Thanks for understanding why we are all here, and how this game is played :-)
Clearstone, you've hit a relatively quiet period. You're right about this being a particularly knowledgeable Yahoo board and, generally speaking, it is a well-behaved one. Stick around. You won't be sorry.
Didn't mean to be sarcastic, bruter. Sorry if i was. This seems to be a very knowledgeable Msg board but sometimes hard to decipher if someone who's been invested in SGEN for a while is expressing insightful fact or strong opinion.
i just made a bit of money on MAKO and am investing some of my profits in SGEN. To be really honest, I'm not finding the SGEN msg board as friendly to new investors as other cos.' msg boards. Very natural for new investors to have questions... a lot of short, cryptic answers if any all. This baffles me, existing investors should want strong retail interest to push this stock up.