Besides having a peak sales estimate of about $1.2bil SGEN vs $5 bil PCYC there is another huge difference. PCYC' s estimates are based of current approved indications. SGEN's are based on their eventual approval for first-line.
With post transplant being the last unment need. There's really is no pressure on the FDA in rush that approval. Everyone who needs Adcetris can get it under the current approved indications. FDA can afford to wait, get it right...Wait for the OS numbers to trickle in. So SGEN's discussion with regulators may not go their way and we wait till '17 or?
Keep in mind that Maui is one of the many aliases of the troll we know as Rickarooski. This is the alias he uses when he wants to seem reasonably bullish, but always with hesitation and doubt.
If I believed what you have just wrote I'd be buying Takada. What your suggesting is that they have estimated exUS peak Adcetris sales 10-20 times SGEN or $10 bil. making it the best selling drug in history.
The reality is SGEN gets about 10-12% XUS....Maybe $.25 bil tops making SGEN's peak sales estimate $1.25 bil. A buyout value around $4.3 billion using the PCYC formula of 3.5 times peak sale. last I checked we are trading higher then that.
Here is a direct quote from the article that I read " RBC Capital biotech analyst Michael Yee figures AbbVie is paying seven times the projected Imbruvica peak sales of $6 billion"
WSJ is a reliable source so we take your numbers. Did not know that Clay has forecast $1 billion in sales but I forecast the same by simply extrapolating current sales to the whole HL population which is 7X the size that for which Adcetris is currently approved for, and yes that is US only. However to simply double it for ROW is quite disingenuous since HL is not a US specific disease and the population in ROW is 20X that of the US. Unfortunately not everyone will be able to get this med when needed, but at least half will, so the ROW addressable market is at least 10X the size of the US, which brings Adcetris WW forecastable revenue in the same ball park.
Just read the WSJ article. All the math is in there. I think that Clay has estimated Adcedris peak sales at about $1 bil. That may be just US, Canada. So maybe double?
I'd also apply the same buyout formula used to value PCYC to value SGEN.
Not sure where you are getting your forecast figure but I have seen them at half the levels you are posting. If that is indeed the case then by your own math Abbie paid 7X forecast peak revenues. Adcetris alone with frontline approval will bring just about that number, and that is even before LVIA, CD33 and over a dozen partnerships are accounted for. To be fair PCYC also has other drugs in the pipeline but SGEN's pipe is arguably more valuable but on the whole, if frontline is achieved, then SGEN and PCYC are pretty close to balanced.
There might be more to come now that the sale of Pharmacyclics is increasing their liquidity by a large chunk. Since they have aggressively been acquiring SGEN from Q4 '14 (over 4 million shares) I suspect that they likely will deploy some of the fresh funds to buy even more. Based on the observation that SGEN new daily trading volume has almost doubled from the middle of last year, I'm speculating that HFT has been used to manipulate down the SP. Question is: who is behind it?
I think we will soon find out. If the new buys from BB cause the SP to increase and stay there then most likely the manipulation is being controlled by the short crowd. If however the same wavy trading continues and BB continue to buy the dips, then it may be them pulling the strings to add at low prices.
That notwithstanding, the long term implication of the BB aggressive buying can only mean one thing: we are closing in on the fateful date when SGEN will be sold and judging by the continuation of their precedents, it is very obvious that it will not be at a fire sale price. As I have stated previously (quite a while ago in fact) the price for SGEN will be in the $20 to 25 billions which is in line with what Pharmacyclics has fetched today and it will happen within the next two years after the full potential of Adcetris is obvious and that LIV1A and CD33 become more likely. Once again the BB prove their uncanny mastery to place their funds into smart choices and their continued investment into SGEN leaves no doubt about their thinking and while no one is infallible, all things being equal and if your own DD leads in the same place where they see the burning bushes, then you're unlikely to be far off from finding the way to Damascus.
ABBV has estimated PCYC's only approved drug worldwide peak dales at between $10-$12 billion. Half of which they must share with J&J. That leaves ABBV with about $5.5bil. Based on that, the $21bil sale price ABBV paid would equate to about 3.5 times peak sales. So do the math.
Felix Baker bought nearly 450,000 MORE shares in the last few days. If you think all of these huge recent buys by the Bakers are meaningless, you're nuts.
I guess there is a space limit. You can google the recent Blood and Marrow transplant meeting in San Diego to read. Reports on 2 cases at City of Hope. AML free after 33A and ASCT.
SGN-CD33A: Case Reports of Anti-Leukemic Activity and Bridge to Allogeneic Stem Cell Transplant (SCT) in Patients with Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML)
Track: Poster Abstracts
Wednesday, February 11, 2015, 6:45 PM-7:45 PM
Grand Hall CD (Manchester Grand Hyatt)
Samer K. Khaled, MD , City Of Hope, Duarte, CA
Anthony S. Stein, MD , City of Hope, Duarte, CA
Racquel Innis-Shelton, MD , Medicine, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL
Harry P. Erba, MD, PhD , University of Alabama-Birmingham, Birmingham, AL
CD33 is expressed on the surface of myeloblasts in ~90% of AML, representing a promising, clinically validated target. SGN‑CD33A is an anti-CD33 engineered cysteine antibody conjugated to ~2 molecules of a pyrrolobenzodiazepine (PBD) dimer, a highly potent DNA crosslinking agent. Upon binding, SGN‑CD33A is internalized and transported to the lysosomes where PBD dimer is released through proteolytic cleavage of the linker, crosslinking DNA and leading to cell death.
A phase 1 dose-escalation study (NCT01902329) evaluating the safety and anti-leukemic activity of SGN-CD33A is ongoing. AML patients (ECOG 0-1) must have relapsed disease after initial remission (CR) of 3 months or declined induction/consolidation. SGN-CD33A is given IV q3wk up to 4 cycles and optional maintenance for patients with CR/CRi. This report details the experience of 2 patients who received SGN-CD33A, had anti-leukemic benefit, and went to allogeneic SCT.
Case 1: A 37-year-old male with AML (intermediate risk cytogenetics) achieved CR with standard induction/consolidation May 2013. He relapsed Dec 2013 and got decitabine before enrolling in SGN33A-001 Jan 2014 (20 mcg/kg). He had ECOG 1, G4 neutropenia, G3 thrombocytopenia, and 6-8% blasts. D15 marrow showed a hypocellularity with no evidence of leukemia. He remained pancytopenic and his marrow hypoplastic with no evidence of AML until residual leukemia was identifie
Not to long ago, PCYC market cap had the same market cap as SGEN and now it's 4 times the size. SGEN should see at least a 10% jump today but sadly it won't. Bought PCYC for 17 and sold it for 74 back in 2011. I won't make the same mistake with SGEN...as frustrating as it might be, I'm holding for the long haul.
Another big payday for them. They keep buying SGEN so perhaps they see this as another big runner?
The stock hasn't done much in a long while beyond a trading range but pipeline is solid so perhaps with the new found wealth they will buy more?