BH good to see that you are back in the fold. Hope you have regained your health and ready to contribute again. Based upon your take and understanding of the boys up the road from you the collaboration with CLDX and SGEN will transform both companies into profitable pharmas.
SGEN is getting close quickly but you have a bias toward CLDX since you seem to know some players there.
Your take on SGEN has been spot on and we are watching CLDX also.
Oh, Ye Troll of The Many Aliases: We haven't heard from you since around $34 or so. We know you're watching. Don't you think you should stop by and apologize? Wouldn't that be the decent thing to do? Isn't that what your parents taught you to do?
Harry has posted Charts of the Day video on SGEN at TheTechTrader site noting: Seattle Genetics, Inc. (SGEN) is a swing trade of ours that is acting great, up 2.13 to 45.52, or 5%, on 1.6 million shares on Tuesday. After it popped, pulled back, it popped again, pulled back again, and broke out across the double top. The targets are 49 1/2, and then 55-6.
From American Banking & Market News 6/2:
Stock analysts at HC Wainright set a $65.00 price objective on shares of Seattle Genetics (NASDAQ:SGEN) stock in a report issued on Tuesday. The firm currently has a a “buy” rating on the stock.
In other Seattle Genetics news, Director Felix Baker purchased 950,886 shares of Seattle Genetics stock in a transaction that occurred on Thursday, May 21st. The shares were purchased at an average price of $42.49 per share, for a total transaction of $40,403,146.14. The purchase was disclosed in a document filed with the SEC....
If the BBs can get $100/share in 3-4 months, that would be incredible and I would be delighted. Why wait if you can get tomorrow's payoff today !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
At the 26% they currently own the BB could already effectively block any takeover that was not double the share price. If you look at the stocks the Baker Brothers have in their top holdings, these are companies they were making 100% per year. If they were just investing in SGEN they would be buying 1/3 the number of shares they are currently buying, accumulating at lower prices. They are buying as quickly as they can without attempting to trigger a massive run-up or short-squeeze. The only reason time is of the essence is if something is about to happen, hence buying at a faster pace... That is why I think SGEN is on the blocks. They have so many different avenues and FDA trials to pursue with their technology that this company can benefit greatly by being owned by a much larger entity. The time frame will be interesting. The BB can afford to buy like this indefinitely, but if I had to guess the time horizon is between now and three-four months. my two cents.
No doubt they are working with SG management on the timing. Wish we knew they're talking about - would help us with timing purchases!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
The only news out of ASCO today that I could see was that AGS-16C3F, an ADC collaboration with Agensys & SG was going to move forward with a P2 trial in RR Renal cell carcinoma. 1.8mg dose did relieve the ocular toxicity problem and anti tumor activity was present.
I doubt that this could account for the big move today.
Short covering and forced short covering could be a factor. Almost 90% of the outstanding shares now are in the hands of only 5 entities. BB's, Baille Gifford, Fidelity, can't remember the 4th, and mgmt.
Any additional buys like the recent BB buys could really tighten the noose on the short side. I think these entities could care less about the shorts and their purchases are driven by the future potential successes of Adcetris and the pipeline, but with so few strong hands holding such a large % of the outstanding shares it would be dangerous to be short.
It has been said that one can gain "control" of a company with as little as 15-20% of the outstanding shares. Usually this amount will enable a shareholder to have a strong say in the policies of a company going forward. Clearly, the BBs have well in excess of that threshold....so what are we to make of this?
Here's my read on the situation. As a Board member Felix Baker has clear inside knowledge of the potential for SGEN's drugs...AND it's pipeline. If I were seeking to acquire SGEN at this time, were the Bakers not involved. I could probably do so with a bid north of $55, just past the previous all-time high at $56. No one would have lost money on the deal and there'd be generally happy shareholders.
HOWEVER, if I had more intimate knowledge of what SGEN was truly worth, say in 2-3 years, as more drugs went into trial and other drugs were able to reach their revenue potential, the shares might well be worth much, much more, say at least 30-40% per year more using a typical venture capitalist approach. (Incidentally, those calculations yield a 3-year target of between $100 and $125.
So the Bakers perhaps recognize this possibility and do not want someone to submit what to them might be considered an early and lowball bid for the company. By owning in excess of 25% of the company, they will basically be able to dictate when (and who) will get to acquire SGEN....not just today, but 2-3 years from today...and that, I believe, is the strategy we're seeing unfold.
Very much agree with your "past the point of no-return" comment, and their only eventual way out is through a buyout. As you say, selling on the open market will just drive down the pps, while buyout will increase the pps via a premium. So, yeah, buyout is in the future but question is when. Don't see it near term, too much organic growth to come over the next couple of years.
I agree. The BB keep buying massive dollar amounts week-in and week-out. I am not saying that SGEN isn't the best Bio-Stock out there but how much of it does one need in a fund when you are already on the board. The BB are well past the point of no-return, they can't sell shares on the open market anytime soon or their investment would get hammered. So the end-game must be coming... soon... pushing the price up for better negotiating position. Makes you think their is more than one prospective buyer.
May 21, 2015 BAKER FELIXDirector
362,459 Indirect Purchase at $43.27 - $43.67 per share. 15,756,0002
May 20, 2015 BAKER FELIXDirector
374,298 Indirect Purchase at $40.95 - $42.97 per share. 15,706,0002
May 19, 2015 BAKER FELIXDirector
214,129 Indirect Purchase at $40.57 - $41.09 per share. 8,743,0002
It has traded more than half its average daily volume in the first two hours. Seems like a good start.