I, too, watch the SGen pps way too closely. Recently it slides for the first 30 minutes of each day, then peaks mid morning and recedes in the afternoon. Strange, but rather consistent lately. Are the tutes and the insiders making frequent trades? Can Day Traders account for much of an average million shares a day? I have no idea.
I am so optimistic about SGen's future that I don't understand why investors sell for less than the mid 40's unless their baby needs milk.
Of course, we all wish these trials would proceed faster. Several of my friends have cancer and their cells are being indiscriminately blasted with chemo.
But biotech ETFs did emerge post-2005 which probably added to GILD....and SGEN parallel tracks since that time....but a good observation. Thanks.
Great perspective - thanks!!
Do we have to factor in that there weren't any biotech ETFs' into the equation in those early days??
I watch a lot of long-term trading patterns of stocks and I found this interesting.
If you look at a semi-log chart of Gilead (GILD) going back to its debut as a public company and overlay that on top of SGEN from its debut, the patterns are eerily similar....in volatility/price movement. Some of this may be ascribed to the fact that both companies are in the biotech sector, some perhaps to the beliefs/attitudes of investors in those companies.
Anyway, after 13+ years as a public company, GILD in early 2005 (after adjusting for five splits) sold for about $7 1/2. In the next 9+ years, GILD would rise by more than 12-fold.....that's a compound annual rate of return of about 25%.
If this pattern should continue, SGEN will have a great future....though, of course, we all really know that the future will be determined by company fundamentals and how well the company executes on its strategy....still, I found the parallels with share prices "interesting."
The Bakers are insiders and big percentage holders. If they were buying again, they would have to report the buys promptly, and thus far no reports have been filed.
Hey Terry - An excellent analysis. I doubled checked some of your numbers and found them solid!!
I can only assume, based on history, that Felix is continuing to accumulate during the first half of any given day.
More validation of SGEN technology. The biotech correction has left SGEN valuation black and blue but fall is just around the corner and there are many conferences where new data/updates on ongoing trials that use the technology (~ 20 between SGEN itself and licensees) will be divulged and given the rock solid validation so far, fall at SGEN will be like spring and bring a lot of green rather than the deciduous forest fall colors.
The century mark is very much within reach.
Forty eight times in the past eight years, SGen pps has increased by 9% or more from Monday opening to Friday closing. Seven times the increase has been greater than 23%. Three times it has increased by more than 31%.
I don't envision a gradual increase in SGen's pps. One of these weeks, probably before December, likely sooner, SGen's pps is going to accelerate rapidly ... maybe 32%, as it did the week of Sept 20, 2010.
Few of us thought SGen was overpriced at $55. It could climb halfway back up in a week's time. The question is "When?"
Thank God there are some brilliant people in the world dedicated to improving the health and medical care of those who are grappling with diseases and conditions formerly offering little or no hope for improvement/cure. Investing in these people and in their businesses is a wonderful endorsement of their missions.
Well i certainly appreciate the info. Still quite hard to understand/ compare, but i suppose ANY biotech explanation is going to be beyond my depth as a human being. Now FACEBOOK, that is a stock i can can really grok, when they reported a great transition to mobile and then the market sent their stock DOWN to $23 i knew it was time to buy. There was a way to confirm, at least to my mind, that everyone else was wrong. With gilead i just bought it as a spec because, while i liked what everyone said about it, at the heart of the mattter i couldn't tell the difference between it and celgene (and i would hsve been fine buying either anyway!)
Perhaps SGEN and ISIS are similar to that CELG/GILD situation. But the part about SGEN being less toxic and also having more royalties does make me lean that way. So thanks!
SGEN itself is back to its old ways--market up, SGEN down. Small pop on earnings rapidly getting whittled down.
As you hinted there are other companies in the field (Monoclonal Antibody technology) and hopefully they all become successful. I'm condensing in a big way but SGEN's technology big advantage over competitors is that it is way more successful at minimizing toxicity (all chemotherapeutics are ultimately poisons) while circulating in the bloodstream (highly stable) and very precise (selective) on delivering maximum payload to cancer cells once attached to them via the highly expressed protein (antibody) on its surface and absorbed into the cell's cytoplasm.
Think of it as the mythical silver bullet which is actually a cruise missile targeted to a specific address using GPS guidance.
Hopefully the competitors will be able to also improve their stability so that more cancers can be beaten sooner. Also in development and very promising is CART technology which works by arming the body's own immune system (google it for clarification) but unfortunately it is likely to be many years behind due to high fevers that can kill the patients.
SGEN technological primacy is confirmed by ADETRIS' approval and by a dozen or so big pharmas licensing of the technology for ~ 20 drugs in various stages of development. Expected Milestone payments due to SGEN from these projects are currently in excess of $ 3 billion and royalties from successful drugs resulting from them range from the high single digits to the mid 20 %.
You asked for it and I gave you what is my understanding. Please do your own DD before deciding if an investment in SGEN is appropriate for you.
That's the real attraction. Current SOC is effective (77% CR) but long and painful. Depending on the stage of the disease (how far it has progressed at time of diagnosis, if anyone may not know it) it can last 2 years.
Adcetris works fast, is more effective (expecting over 90% CR in frontline), less painful and has no lingering side effects. Well worth the extra cost of the drug and in many cases break even or better when considering lost time at work/productivity while in treatment and lingering debilitating side effects.
Thanks for sharing the nugget.