They are not moving so fast that they will need another secondary stock offering to generate more cash. Avoiding dilution is all that matters to me, because I believe they will do much better than the average biotech in all their clinical trials. Their cash flow will increase at the same rate as their increased R&D spending and I do not mind them showing these small losses until 2018, when Adcetris and SGN33a are first line. The other trials will then have substantial cash value for potential buyers and SGEN will become an irresistable takeover target.
I have waited for 7-8 years as a long and do not mind 2 more.
Don't like the news that SGEN is going to try and get 12 new cancer drugs. Each costs millions or billions to develop and get to market. They will blow through the rest of their cash unless something gets approved and it takes years for product development and FDA approval. I think they are trying to move too fast.
Buy this again redrydder1 and play until the music stops. I bet you'll be way ahead of the game since many think we have until 2018. There are a lot of trades between now and then. $$$
You are correct, sir. But cashing in pre-earnings has been so reliable...like an ATM in the casino.
But someday the music will stop, and I may be left without a chair.
Some institutions are under pressure to perform in the short-term...so anything that may linger on the sidelines for a while is not where they want to be.
Of course, I can share with you from personal experience, by the time the skies clear, the stocks will already have moved up substantially. That's just human nature to wait until all issues are resolved but, by then, the share prices will already have moved in anticipation of that resolution.
I have a large position in SGEN...and do not wish to play the Wall Street games of trying to time the ups and downs. My strategy is and has been in place for many, many years and, while occasionally painful, swimming against the Wall Street tide and the analyst community has proven for me to be a better way to go than jumping into the pool with the crowd.
agreed indeed. i look back at the early 90s when bill threatened to take all of mercks profits...we all know how that turned out. smells fishy though when Franklin and ss and others sell all their shares at sort of the same time...but hey whatever.
A few institutions have come to the conclusion (erroneously so, in my book) that bio companies will never be allowed to recapture their R & D investment in their pipelines....that the big hand og Government will shut them out....In fact, patients will demand and the market will allow bios to be "paid" for bringing to the market the many life-saving and life-extending drugs in their labs.
What we are seeing is a typical market over-reaction to politicians screaming about the high cost of drugs. That screaming will go away after the election when reality will once again dominate.
To me, this is an excellent time to be accumulating selected bios with a clear pipeline and a pathway to profitability. I think, for instance, that The Bakers know this regarding SGEN and are riding this hiccup out...and so am I. If we get a further dip/correction, I will become a buyer in both SGEN and in the other key players in the group.
The SGEN end game, to me, still appears to be a substantial buyout. When? Anyone's guess...but I can wait.
yes, that has been the pattern the algos have been wired to carry out it seems. take a look at statestreet they sold all their sgen shares almost 2 million of them since jan 1st. them and franklin resources have dumped their entire positions in virtually all the bios i have taken the time to comb through.
Echelon1 is the pacing item here because approval for frontline HL will be the gateway for the $1billion addressable market for NA and anoter $ 3 billion for ROW (for which by then SGEN will be collecting mid 20 percent royalties : I.e. net profit to bottom line). If SGEN remains independent until then, the potential buyers will also be able to see the white of the eyes of Echelon2 and the PI/PII results of several of the others in the pipe discussed at the CC and BB will be able to get a price well north of $ 20 billion MC. My guess is that a deal will be struck sooner than that (close to first H'17) for a price in the vicinity of $ 15 billion +/- 3 billions because at the higher valuations that can be achieved later, the field of potential acquirers is somewhat reduced which would limit competition. There is always the chance that SGEN remains independent and achieves MC above these levels as an independent entity but that does not fit the past model for BB. Being that this is biotech, investors must always be mindful that lightning can strike at any time and turn it all into a pile of ashes but barring anything in that scale ( most unlikely in our case because Adcetris has already been in the market 5 years ) we are on target for a significant payday even if the schedule has now slipped a bit from my original expectations.
Ya know, I don't think you're dreaming, assuming the company remains independent that long. But given the Bakers' recent purchases, their track record and Big Pharma's desperate needs for pipelines and science, I'm guessing that SGEN will be absorbed by the Borg within a year or so.
By the time SGEN & the Bakers are ready to sell, say in a couple of years, the share price may already be near $100. It'd be nice to get a 100% premium on that (ie, near $200). Am I dreaming??
Kool, if I'm reading it right, Abbvie paid a 100 percent premium for Stemcentrx - that is, it doubled that company's market value overnight. So...yeah, I'd agree. That deal sets something of a floor for the inevitable buyout of the much-farther-ahead SGEN, imo.
Like clockwork, SGEN reports quarterly results and it sells off big then for no other reason it recovers a few days later. The same thing happened upon approval of ADCETRIS. The only thing that changes is the percent of the selloff. In the meantime the golden age moves ever closer. Abbvie purchase of that other ADC company that most people had never heard of with no approved drugs and a single PIII candidate offers a pretty good metric to gage what BB could be asking for SGEN. Certainly 30 percent of the lung cancer market is for now a larger opportunity than the restricted markets that Adcetris is currently approved for but in 18-24 months approval for frontline should be in the bag and with progression of the huge pipeline the asking price should scale pretty large. The wait is certainly rocky but if you are long SGEN just stay focused on the prize.
Baker's want more of your shares on the "CHEAP". They are out of debt with that secondary and hired 100 more employees. If they were losing millions each qtr. would they hire? Quite the game going on here, but nothing new.
thanks for this recap. Great stuff ahead - ridiculous this gets summed up in some cheap headline as an earnings miss. Thinking of buying more - like I said on another post today, I was waiting on 34, but we might not see it again, and what's the point anyway. This is going much higher.