Adcetris could be pulled off the shelves because of Hepatotoxicity. If that happens, 70%-80% drop here could happen as Adcetris is the only FDA approved drug SGEN has. HUGE risk here.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Today's drop is no mystery, and you don't need to invent theories about it. News emerged concerning the previously known issue of the FDA looking into unconfirmed reports of Adcetris-related toxicity. Basically, the 'news' was that the FDA is still looking into it.
Others are more expert regarding this issue, but my understanding is that these 'FAERS' reports are undocumented and unreliable, in that the initial reports do not establish causality and they are unfiltered. That is, if one patient suffers from a suspected side effect and that patient's doctor, nurse and hospital report it, the single incident ends up looking like three reports.
So, maybe there's something to it and maybe not. In any case, the pps reaction today was relatively gentle, imo, compared to similar reactions to similar "news."
Btw, for others: There's a good chance that "Fishman" is another one of Ricky's aliases.
Bakers added more late last week. They own over $750 million worth of SGEN now. However, SGEN took a hit today dropping almost 3% closing at $39.29. Profit taking? Shorts getting back in? Or perhaps short sales over the past few weeks were more than offset by the Baker purchases, so once the Bakers stop adding to their SGEN position, there will be more selling/shorting than buying and thus downward pressure -- maybe what happened today. Tomorrow will be a true test. If it bounces a bit or at least holds $39, then we're probably establishing a new support level. Otherwise, we might soon see $36-37 again without news. Of course any significant news changes how SGEN will trade.
Atpl, I hadn't thought of that, but I can't argue with the logic so far as Siegall is concerned. Here's the thing, though: The Bakers are insiders - major insiders. I don't think they could be buying this much stock in the open market if M&A talks were underway because that would violate insider trading rules. At least, I think it would. At the same time, given these huge purchases, the Bakers obviously have reason to know or believe that something good is happening at SGEN.
What is your take ?
The 10b5-1 plan sale indicates the sale was made while having some inside information, however the same day acquisition and sale of this reduced price stock by Clay is in line with past performance of his.
I find the very large disposition via gift as more intriguing . If he is married, this large gift is somewhat in line for a lifetime gift tax exclusion. He will pay no taxes as the donor of the gift.
The recipient only would have to pay capital gains on the increase in value as of the date the gift is made.
For example, let's say Clay has been fielding offers for Sgen, I.e. Inside info
It certainly would make sense if one were considering a sale to gift away a rather large amount of shares to someone close so the lifetime exemption would prevent the cap gains on those shares being taxed to the donor, while the recipients cost basis vis a vis cap gains would only be calculated as of the day of the gift.
I don't know, but this rather large gift at a time the Baker are very intent on accumulating is interesting.
What is your take ?
And yet-another 200,000 or so shares bought last Thursday and Friday by the Bakers, for a grand total of well over 18 million.
Your luck is about to change. Barring any breakout news over the next couple of weeks, share price is pinned at $40 until OPEX (6/21?). A lot going on until EOY that will lift SP to double current price IMO.
I have not had good luck with biotechs, but from the little research I have done so far, it appears this has potetntial... I also like the clean balance sheet and insider purchases. I hope to purchase more as a learn about this company. Good luck!
This potential problem is looking to be less substantial. http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-22/takeda-found-not-liable-in-latest-diabetes-drug-lawsuit.html