I know SGEN would never do that to a collaborator but an acquirer of SGEN should have the incentive and not care too much about Takeda. The acquirer would still reap Adcetris sales in the US but a reformulation with a different warhead is essentially a new drug and if more efficacious than Adcetris they would have worldwide rights. Takeda has Adcetris rights but brentuximab + pbd is no longer Adcetris plus extended patent protection, unless I'm off base. Sure it would take approval but with so much data with brentuximab, pbd safety with their linker they could probably get to a pivotal trial pretty quick.
The rest of the world sales are catching up fast to US/CAN sales and frontline when it comes will boost all sales. SGEN also had a big head start on Takeda as FDA approval came first and Takeda also had to get many individual country approvals.
If the pbd adc's are the next wave then someone like AstraZeneca already has the rights to the warhead, and should look at scooping up the whole package.
I feel that if we hadn't cut the deal with Takeda, although very necessary at the time, we already would have been acquired by big pharma.
They will not do that because the new ADC will simply cannibalize on the sales of Adcetris. It will also take 10 years to market, besides we are too close to 1st line approval for Adcetris.
With Takeda holding the " rest of the world " rights to Adcetris , could the drug be altered and improved upon to effectively diminish Takedas investment. Now obviously that is not something Sgen would do to their longtime collaborator but what if a major player, like say AstraZeneca, bought Sgen, could they alter the payload from MMAE to a PBD payload, prove the drug more efficacious than Adcetris and screw Takeda.
My choice of AstraZeneca as the buyer isn't totally random. SGEN seems really big on the PBD warhead approach. 33a seems to be validating their longtime partnership with Spirogen, the developers of PBDs. In fact, SGEN was their earliest partner and I assume Spirogen would get royalties on any developed drug between the two companies. A couple years ago AZ bought the privately held Spirogen via Medimmune and does appear to have significant interest in ADC development. Hence, since the effectiveness to treat with PBDs Rests almost entirely on an effective linker system wouldn't it make sense to own the antibody, linker and warhead.
If AZ took that approach, couldn't they reformulate Brentuximab with a PBD payload, call it a new drug and have worldwide rights.
Thanks for the answers myboy and red. There are times when I just cant spare the time to go listen for myself. I'll try over the week end, but it sounds like that Clay's talk was quite ambiguous on the timelines ( I.e. weather they are stretching or compressing). Nevertheless it does not matter much for those of us that are investors (I.e. not traders) because in the aggregate the only thing that matters is the quality of the rsults. Besides the trials I would also like to get updates on the Adcetris for Lupus application as well as progress on the Liv 1A and Unum work. Understandably I'm probably a bit anxious on those works but thet is because the potential with them is huge.
I'm not sure that Echelon has slipped. The details escaped me during his presentation yesterday, but my impression was that Siegall merely tightened the time frame for readout, clipping a few months off the back end. I'd have to listen to it again, though, to be sure about that.
The 'events' are happening at a slower rate than they expected, so it seems, pushing the readout by 1/2 a yr, from late 16. All good, this ensures that we will have a billion $ drug in 18. By that time we will be marketing SGN33A and maybe in 19-20 that goes to first-line as well. We can easily get 20+ billion in 2019.
The big pharmas will be salivating at that time and will bid SGEN up for takeover. BB will ensure we get a more than fair deal
The perfect storm for a takeover also includes:
Patent expirations/decreasing revenues of big pharma and the willingness to spend those billions they have accumulated over the past few years.
E.g. when PFE goes to Ireland all that 65 billion in overseas cash can be used to buy american biotechs without paying US taxes!
The Bakers are not fools accumulating on weakness!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Sounds like SGEN's biggest Phase III trial results will be reported in the 2017-first half 2018 time frame, as per the Barclays conference today. If results are good, that will push their main drug to the $1-$2 billion sales level in time. After those results prove successful is when a buyout would likely happen, right? And I don't see a price tag much less than $20 billion... Unless they want to wait for the pipeline to develop further, and for the Co. to fetch an even higher price. I'm not sure what the Bakers have in mind... This PPS level looks like a steal, though...
What's amazing to me - and a little unsettling - is that the Bakers have managed to buy all of these shares on the open market without effectively turbocharging the share price. That's to their personal credit and it's a testament to their trading skills, though it's not necessarily to our immediate benefit. Still, one had to believe that sooner or later, probably sooner, the market will wake up to what's happening here and decide that it better follow the Bakers' lead and...boom...get behind this stock big-time (and close out any short positions pronto).
wondered what that was about as well, but those ct s are so common nowadays in stocks it could be anything. the buyout speculation has been discussed at length on this board, and it seems the only way the bakers and other large holders resolve their lengthy investment in sgen. at risk of sounding repetitive, it s takeda, it has to be. with sgen, they acquire ww adcetris and the pipe and the cash in the till. when takeda bought out millemium in 08 staff hiring was carried out immediately afterward. well, clay is hiring we know that. the alternative is they see something in the pipe that is very very mouth watering...either way we will find out in sooner or later.
Though Goldman Sachs advised a sell on this particular company it was done so knowing longs in the market would be put under pressure at year end if pressures surfaced which would exert a downward bias on this sector of the market. It is fairly easy to 'suggest' a price where any stock will likely go if you are a sizeable seller, are able to borrow the shares, and there are other traders, ala dark pools, who are working in concert. In the long run, however, they are not privy to the real value of compounds being developed and very likely they will miss the bigger move. Their shortfall is your gain if you are not shaken out of your position. All through this downward move had you actually bought shares when GS said to sell, @45, held your position and then bought more shares at let's say 30, your average cost is 37.5. Unless you've been using leverage you should not be feeling any pain given the volatility is masking the upside potential down the road; a road that is getting shorter and shorter. Thanks GS for the opportunity to amass my current position.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Yes, that sounds about right. I have never seen an insider snap up so many shares so fast. I am hoping for some good news soon...That would definitely move the needle high up.GLTA
Sentiment: Strong Buy