That is a lot of presenting to be doing at the ASCO annual meeting 4 days worth! Holy cow! I would think the new data is very compelling across the board or logic would dictate that you would stick to an area where you look good??? Very much fits with the buys the BB-s are making.
Will the trend of selling the news continue or switch this time?
Since there was no significant runup this may be the pivot point. If not then BB have plenty of dry powder to increase their ownership. Not sure where the BB put is set now (only they know it) but it is probably above $40 from where they can easily find new parking comfortably above $45 by end of next week or mid week the week after that. With ownership of over 25% the next target level has to be 30% but not all at once because that would spike the price too much which is not in their best interests.
I'm thinking that something good is going to be revealed by PGNX about their prostate cancer drug that they are partners with SGEN. It has been a long time and I wanted to buy them below 5:50 but did not because to get the cash I would have to separate with some SGEN shares and I'm simply incapable to do that.
Good luck to all but to the patients in particular. God speed to all drugs in progress and may they finally point the light to where the scourge of humanity that all cancers are may shortly be defeated.
ASCO should solidify the stature of SGEN and increase its collaboration potential. The idea that one drug is going to be the cure all is clearly being understood and dismissed. This should lead to greater potential for combinations which may likely come from the minds of many of those attending the conference.
I could not agree more that there should be a steady climb notwithstanding that there are drops in the price after these conferences but that shakes out most of the weak hands or those that fail to understand the longer term potential. BBs understand that and kept buying through the 30s and now into the 40s. Their economic models must have rates of return that satisfy their criteria. However we retail buyers are buying minority interests in the company with little say in the ongoing activities of the company. On normal valuation the discount would be fairly steep off of the enterprise value of the company. However, when you own 25% of the company and are on the board the value gets closer to the full share of the enterprise value and in effect more like a controlling interest. With the steady buying and at least a black out period for an acquisition there will continue to be the same growing of shareholder value by delivering upon the stated goals and achieving greater returns from the pipeline, collaborations and world wide increase in usage of Adcetris.
Hoping that the engine that has brought us to this point continues forward and that ASCO brings about greater collaboration and licensing of the technology. To me that is learning and building a database on other people's money along with milestones and cash flow. That is a model worth multiples.
Awaiting the presentations and hope for the patients who are desperate for good news!
I am not a scientist or doctor but the data presented, sounds like for CD30 Hodgkins ADCETRIS should be frontline treatment. Around 90% of Hodgkin suffers or 8,000 people in the US per year? Seems like this alone should support the current share price? Wondering if I am missing something from the release on this?
Is this a result of the data finally getting digested from yesterday or what they have bee presenting today? Anyone know?
Don't know, but it's a strong showing in a weak market. Might not hold these levels, but an encouraging sign all the same.
it would be nice to see some more volume though. That's the only thing bothering me about this rally.
It has traded more than half its average daily volume in the first two hours. Seems like a good start.
May 21, 2015 BAKER FELIXDirector
362,459 Indirect Purchase at $43.27 - $43.67 per share. 15,756,0002
May 20, 2015 BAKER FELIXDirector
374,298 Indirect Purchase at $40.95 - $42.97 per share. 15,706,0002
May 19, 2015 BAKER FELIXDirector
214,129 Indirect Purchase at $40.57 - $41.09 per share. 8,743,0002
I agree. The BB keep buying massive dollar amounts week-in and week-out. I am not saying that SGEN isn't the best Bio-Stock out there but how much of it does one need in a fund when you are already on the board. The BB are well past the point of no-return, they can't sell shares on the open market anytime soon or their investment would get hammered. So the end-game must be coming... soon... pushing the price up for better negotiating position. Makes you think their is more than one prospective buyer.
Very much agree with your "past the point of no-return" comment, and their only eventual way out is through a buyout. As you say, selling on the open market will just drive down the pps, while buyout will increase the pps via a premium. So, yeah, buyout is in the future but question is when. Don't see it near term, too much organic growth to come over the next couple of years.
It has been said that one can gain "control" of a company with as little as 15-20% of the outstanding shares. Usually this amount will enable a shareholder to have a strong say in the policies of a company going forward. Clearly, the BBs have well in excess of that threshold....so what are we to make of this?
Here's my read on the situation. As a Board member Felix Baker has clear inside knowledge of the potential for SGEN's drugs...AND it's pipeline. If I were seeking to acquire SGEN at this time, were the Bakers not involved. I could probably do so with a bid north of $55, just past the previous all-time high at $56. No one would have lost money on the deal and there'd be generally happy shareholders.
HOWEVER, if I had more intimate knowledge of what SGEN was truly worth, say in 2-3 years, as more drugs went into trial and other drugs were able to reach their revenue potential, the shares might well be worth much, much more, say at least 30-40% per year more using a typical venture capitalist approach. (Incidentally, those calculations yield a 3-year target of between $100 and $125.
So the Bakers perhaps recognize this possibility and do not want someone to submit what to them might be considered an early and lowball bid for the company. By owning in excess of 25% of the company, they will basically be able to dictate when (and who) will get to acquire SGEN....not just today, but 2-3 years from today...and that, I believe, is the strategy we're seeing unfold.
The only news out of ASCO today that I could see was that AGS-16C3F, an ADC collaboration with Agensys & SG was going to move forward with a P2 trial in RR Renal cell carcinoma. 1.8mg dose did relieve the ocular toxicity problem and anti tumor activity was present.
I doubt that this could account for the big move today.
Short covering and forced short covering could be a factor. Almost 90% of the outstanding shares now are in the hands of only 5 entities. BB's, Baille Gifford, Fidelity, can't remember the 4th, and mgmt.
Any additional buys like the recent BB buys could really tighten the noose on the short side. I think these entities could care less about the shorts and their purchases are driven by the future potential successes of Adcetris and the pipeline, but with so few strong hands holding such a large % of the outstanding shares it would be dangerous to be short.
No doubt they are working with SG management on the timing. Wish we knew they're talking about - would help us with timing purchases!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
At the 26% they currently own the BB could already effectively block any takeover that was not double the share price. If you look at the stocks the Baker Brothers have in their top holdings, these are companies they were making 100% per year. If they were just investing in SGEN they would be buying 1/3 the number of shares they are currently buying, accumulating at lower prices. They are buying as quickly as they can without attempting to trigger a massive run-up or short-squeeze. The only reason time is of the essence is if something is about to happen, hence buying at a faster pace... That is why I think SGEN is on the blocks. They have so many different avenues and FDA trials to pursue with their technology that this company can benefit greatly by being owned by a much larger entity. The time frame will be interesting. The BB can afford to buy like this indefinitely, but if I had to guess the time horizon is between now and three-four months. my two cents.