My "projections" are based upon a comprehensive analysis of SGEN's drug pipeline, the likelihood of them having multiple billion dollar drugs in the marketplace in the future, the dwindling pipelines of many large pharma participants (and their likelihood of using their cash to buy drugs with a track record and an outstanding pipeline (cancer and other major conditions), and the fact that 65% of the outstanding shares are held by four institutions, with the largest slug in the hands of the Baker Brothers who have a SGEN Board seat and an insatiable desire to make a killing with their bio investments.
At the end of the day, investing is all about playing the odds...and I just happen to like the odds of what I am seeing.
I'll most certainly take that! Are your projections based on fundamental research and reasonable assumptions, or are they based more on hope and prayers? Really. I hope you're right, for sure.
Thanks for the input, koolbrez22. I gotta think that the trials will go generally pretty well, and that SGEN will be off to the races. With the Bakers seemingly buying hand over fist, I can't see them selling for much less than $25 bill., which would be a nice five bagger from current levels. Not too shabby...
last thing ill say is the board of d is remarkable. just for example srini akkaraju (independent director) is partner at soffinova, independent director at intercept, ind dir at sgen since 2003, chairman of vsar, and former managing partner at new leaf ventures. no a prestigious board does not ensure success, but it sure should attract investment at some point lol
With all of the trials in the pipe, there is no way to forecast anything that far out. All that can be done is to get a number that is very subjective and highly qualified. If everything coming out of the trials is positive you are looking on a MC between $20 and $25 billions, if everything fails you are looking on
an MC between 0.5- $2 billions. For anything between MC will be proportionally between these 2 ranges. Most probable outcome is around the $15-18 bazillion mark but be advised that on the subjective end I'm admittedly over invested in SGEN and objectively I do not work for GS, so I have no knowledge of what is really going to happen.
Very elegant and interesting science but for me I will wait to see clinical activity before investing. Most of my SGEN was purchased under $10 after they were showing significant clinical success. I put this on my watch list. Huge volume spike so maybe something in the works.
yup. the old 'when i buy it s gotta be a bottom' saying. who knows when sanity returns if ever i guess, but below cash...?slap me and call me susan...youtube IAS Distinguished Lecture: Prof Paul Schimmel (31 Oct 2014) he presents his thesis on tRNA
Thanks for the tip wd - I took about 3 minutes to look at the chart, the massive volume today, and the insider buying, and I bought some without knowing any more. I like to do my DD, but hey, things are going good for me lately, it's cheap and how much lower can it go? Famous last words, right?
a company ive been watching since it ipo d last year is aTyr Pharma ticker LIFE. Founder is dr paul schimmel of Alnylam and cubist. it s been beaten down bad and is trading below cash on the balance sheet. the scinece could be amazing....also bakers and soffinova ventures are shareholders. a personal dream to purchase shares at the very very very bottom of a company and aTyr looks like it could be there.
Thanks for this Wds. Only one product but looks interesting to me. Doesn't hurt that the Bakers are invested in it....
i agree. is the japan pediatric trial any different to the euro or do their health authority simply need a separate evaluation? There s also the trial in adults i believe, and it s all the same compound. best part is, it s simply a non inferiority endpoint too.
I think VSAR is the easiest double you'll find...and more likely a triple. But it seems manipulated and will take some patience.