I don't have a Baker Bros history for this stock, but they are a very minor holder,
owning about 0.0453%. They could dump all their shares at once and it wouldn't
affect the share price much. I'm interested if they participated in this secondary.
By this, I mean becoming a 5% holder. They currently don't seem to be interested
in the HEP C market, owning 0.017% GILD and zero of : ABBV, BMY, MRK or RGLS.
We've been through this already. Paladin is correct. From Tuesday's conference call:
Mara Goldstein, Cantor Fitzgerald: "Oh thanks very much. I had a housekeeping question and then a question on LIV1. On the housekeeping item, the guidance, the revenue guidance for 2015, the $200 million to $210 million for ADCETRIS, that's exclusive of royalties, correct?"
Todd Simpson - CFO and Principal Accounting Officer: "Yes, correct."
Wrong. You can't add Royalty = License Agreements twice. SGEN said "We expect 2015 revenues from collaboration and license agreements to be in the range of $60 million to $70 million driven by amounts earned under our existing ADC collaborations and the ADCETRIS collaboration with Takeda." That + $210M = $280M = 2014 revenues. So - very flat year over year.
The Baker Bros will sell there shares the same way they sell alot of there investments, in a single transaction to the acquiring company.
this thing will get real ugly. Anyone here that still touts how smart they are....bla bla bla.
This stock just might be the worst stock of all time...I think the unloading of shares will continue for another 3 to 4 years.
The filing http://www.streetinsider.com/SEC+Filings/Form+SC+13GA+SEATTLE+GENETICS+INC+Filed+by%3A+VANGUARD+GROUP+INC/10252903.html
shows that they has increased the number of shares.
So that I know of, these have increased their stakes:
Baker Brothers Advisors, LLC
Baillie Gifford and Company
Vanguard Group, Inc. (The)
Regards to all SGEN Longs!
Here are some highlights of SGEN CEO Clay Siegall’s presentation today at the Leerink Global Healthcare Conference in New York City:
- Siegall evealed that SGEN is working on a second program based on its new sugar-engineered antibody. "We have not disclosed this [second] program for competitive reasons," he said. This would be a program in addition to SEA-CD40, which will undergo a Phase 1 study in solid tumors this year.
- There may be opportunities for more collaboration with Bristol-Myers Squibb (beyond the recently announced agreement to evaluate Adcetris and Opdivo in combination), he said.
- He reminded attendees that (in line with Paladin's post below) SGEN raised financial guidance twice last year.
That's all I heard of interest. It was in Q&A format and the Qs weren't very good.
I have been looking at their annual guidance numbers for 2012, 2013, & 2014, and comparing them to the year end actuals. Siegall tends to be quite conservative, and my review clearly supports this.
The comments below which use % variance use the top of the range guidance numbers provided at the start of the year. Also, as SGEN does not include Royalty Rev in their projections one must keep in mind that when I state the actual revs exceed projected revs the actual royalty rev becomes a significant factor.
In 2012, both the Rev & Exp beginning of the year projections (Rev projection was delayed one Q) were pretty much on the mark. Total Revs came in at $210m on a projection of $195-$215. On the Exp side, total Exp came in at $268m on a projection of $245-$270. Pretty much right on.
In 2013, Total Rev actual exceeded initial projection by 26%, a significant portion of this was attributable an increase in Collaboration Rev. Adcetris sales exceeded top range projection by 4%. Royalty Rev accounted for 7% of Total Rev, not large percentage, but up from 2% in the prior year. On the Exp side. Total Exp came in 2% below the top range figure from the guidance.
In 2014, Total Rev exceeded initial top range projections by 25%, with Adcetris sales exceeding projections by 8% and Collaborations exceeding by 6%. Royalties (not projected in guidance) grew to represent 14% of Total Rev (up from 7% prior year & 2% prior to that). It would seem that both off-label Adcetris sales and of course Royalty Rev were the primary factors in exceeding Guidance (again not suggesting that they gave Guidance for Royalty). On the Exp side, Total Exp was 7% below top range guidance and very close to the bottom range guidance.
So, what does this mean for 2015? Unless Siegall has gone through some amorphous as a result of the Seahawkes "aggressive" play calling, we might expect Tot Revs in the $370m-$375m area. If Exp hangs in close to the bottom range, the Net could be very interesting.
Great post Ricardo. I too have been in SGEN for many years. But not since 4-5 bucks!
Patience is the key that most lack!
While it is possible that SGEN will have a bright future but I am concerned that investor focus has turned away from ADCs and toward CAR-T. It is very hard for a stock to shake off negative sentiment even though business results may be very respectable.
It's not even that I'm losing that much money. My last purchase was in the 33s, and it was an addition to a small and newish position. My other holding has a cost base in the teens.
And yes, frustration is my dominant sentiment. I'm not saying SGEN should be back up in the 50s or even the 40s. But it should also not be making new lows every month.
I have been investing in pharma and bio for about 35 years. After yesterday's conference call, I just can't help thinking that this company has a few ( or more ) potentially explosive opportunities over the next few years. Not that any of them will be assuredly realized, with failures being a norm for the industry, but there is such lingering excitement.
I am talking about, for example, moving Adcetris towards earlier lines of treatment, SGN-33A for AML ( actually, there might be an even wider application in forms of myelodysplasia ), LIV-1 ADC in breast CA. Couple this with a solid royalty position and many milestones / partnerships, a good balance sheet and a reluctance of management to take on debt or issue an overwhelming number of new shares.........and the next three years "might" be quite amazing. Off course, we have to temper that with the reality that nothing usually ever goes smoothly or perfectly as planned with these sorts of ventures. Nonetheless, what I am simply saying is that the excitement ( at least for me ) is there.
Let's see what the next three years brings for anyone patient enough to hold this stock over this period of time.
Good luck to all!
CAUTION: Bias Disclosure: Ricardo owns a huge position in SGEN. Purchased mostly at relatively low prices years ago ( most lots at $4-8 ). He has sold off previously about 25% of his holdings to lock in a profit, but remains committed with the rest as a long term hold. Because of his large stake, his judgement may be quite distorted and he may be delusional so CAVEAT EMPTOR and do your own due diligence and research before investing.