Further lets assume that licensed land equity/assets are 20% overvalued based on the tumble. Their $7.1bil in debt (taxes and pure debt) are not backed by anything but this licensed land, which makes book value decrease from maybe $8 to $6? So like I said, too many unknowns and while POT certainly isn't worthless imo, its too pricey and will likely be dead money for a long time (12mos+)
A realist and being bearish are two different things. I don't change my tune based on an up or down day like some of the people here. If it goes up it just makes it even more pricey. I think it looks like it wants to go to $12 interim and that would be perfectly rational with dips to $10.50 and rises towards $14 short term I suppose. Personally I wouldn't be a buyer over $11 like I've said a ton of times.
No working capital, licensed land only, needs cash to expand going forward as is the nature of these things, could need more debt, high div that isn't natural nor guaranteed and bleeds the zero cash they already don't have etc etc.
Realistically at $11, you could take a shot and hope that price per ton stays over $200 and increases in 2017 but you got a long long wait to see what happens. Nothing happening for at least 12 months that's for sure.
agree. it appears institutions are slowly reducing their positions as retail investors assume there is value down here. the warning was the dividend cut and some refuse to believe there is trouble. my opinion
well yes the licensed land valued on the books are probably overvalued but the point is that POT has no working capital, no real cash of any sort, and is living day to day. If price per ton dips under $200 the stocks going to single digits maybe $8 or $9 or $10. Either way, I think $15 or $16 is awfully pricey indeed. I'm with you, $12 would be far more realistic for a cash-less company with no upside anytime soon.
Well it will be interesting to see if we break $14.50 or go towards $17 again. Doesn't look too strong today looks like it wants lower.
There is only one market today, oil, it is the only thing that has an input on all stock prices.POT
prices applied on the land are too high, compared to ag raw product sale prices. POT at $12 makes
more reality than even $15.
then again I can't say this is so overvalued either. I just felt $11 was a good price point considering the issues. $16 feels really pricey after all. I mean POT is completely broke outside of land they cant even match ST liabilities at this point.
I'd have thought it would be trending around $13 by now heading towards $10.50-$11.50 but I guess it wants to churn a bit more before $14.50 breaks.
The Boundary Dam model captures CO2 from burning coal in a power plant and injects it into an oil bearing formation to push the oil out and to sequester the CO2 in the ground. BHP is just sucking up to the government. BHP also has O&G interests.
None of these techniques will be used at Jansen. There is little CO2 produced there, nor will there be if it isn't built. If it is built (which I doubt will happen in the next 10 years) it won't produce enough CO2 to bother capturing.
They could pump it into a high pH Potash waste stream? Not too familiar with the process but isn't the brine used full of hydroxide? The could run it through the waste stream and use it as a scrubber. Turn the CO2 into Potassium Carbonate. I could be very wrong on this.
Huh? Are they thinking of dumping CO2 into Jansen as it is mined? Or maybe all the shaft will be good for is to pump CO2 into the existing brine solution? The Boundary Dam model to which they refer uses a coal mine's CO2 emissions to fill the well. I don't get these guys.
BHP Billiton Invests In Carbon Capture Research Centre
Written by SaskatoonHomepage.ca
A global resources company with a prospective potash mine in Saskatchewan is investing money in this province for carbon capture research.
BHP Billiton is building the mine by Jansen Lake about 180 kilometres east of Saskatoon.
The $20-million investment announced today (Fri) will help establish a global centre for carbon capture and storage, based out of Regina.
BHP Billiton Chief Commercial Officer, Dean Dalla Valle (vale), says even with the shift to eventual phasing out fossil fuels, the technology is extremely valuable.
Boundary Dam is a fully working model of the carbon capture technology, which Dalla Valle says provides immediate benefits for the climate.
Premier Brad Wall says an investment from private enterprise like this shows that there is meaningful interest in this technology across the globe.
SaskPower's Boundary Dam Power Station is the first carbon capture and storage facility in the world that is integrated into a power plant.