It's complicated to breakdown the FSL revenues specifically for the IoT considering that some parts could be reused in different applications.
1) The Auto MCU, 1063 mil in 2013, some of these parts are for the engine control, airbags, etc. But there is also the infotainment part that could meet the IoT. My guess is that only 10-15% of revenues come from the infotainment in this business. The point is that with IoT in every home, every driver will want to update the infotainment module in the car with one that is IoT enabled.
2) Microcontroller MCU, 826 mil in 2013, most of the revenues come from appliances compatible with IoT: tablets, wireless small range comm, etc. I mean the MCU that goes into the hub, running Linux.
3) Digital networking, 915 mil in 2013, 80% of revenues come from Internet routers (wired) for traffic processing and encryption, the rest is from basestations. If the IoT will demand more Internet access, than these numbers will increase. But perhaps not in the first phase of IoT ramp-up.
4) Analog and sensors, 736 mil in 2013, it is difficult to tell the product mix. You could assume 50-60% of the revenues from IoT. But keep in mind that most appliances today have sensors, they don't have IoT. Newer appliances will not add sensors, but rather MCUs and connectivity. I would not assume this business to grow much more. For instance, you do have sensors in the refrigerator, but this cannot talk to your cell over the net. New generations will add this communication (over the cloud and for the short range inside the house), not newer sensors.
5) RF, 352 mil in 2013, this is mostly related to macro basestations power amplifiers. I would not see this being influenced to much by the IoT.
To sum things: 15% of 1063 + 826 + 60% of 736, excluding the cloud effect that increases the demand for the network access. My guess is that only the first two terms of the sum will increase with the IoT growth.
It is a bit difficult to respond to your question as the domain IoT is not that clearly defined in terms of specifications. It is more like an umbrella for a stereotype of applications. And this application pattern is this:
- ultra low power agent: sensors, MCU processing data, persistent memory, wireless for small range comm
- hub: wireless for small range comm with the agents, full range CPU with connectivity to Internet (either wired, thus powered by PoE, or wireless like WiFi or 3G/4G user terminal stack)
- transport to the cloud: the more hubs are connected to the Internet, the bigger the need for wireless of wired connections to the cloud: thus you need small cell basestations or WiFi hotspots or plain Internet wired routers
- cloud: the service providers what to set a secured Internet space for your IoT application (being the cloud space of a hospital that remotely monitors your health, or your garden watering system, or your home appliances, etc); this requires server virtualization, IP encryption of the traffic, you know, the datacenter type of applications.
this company is in a number of spaces, my question is this: the IOT space is obviously very hot and will continue to grow...can anyone speak to how much of their business is currently derived from this space, and what does their presence in the market look to be moving forward? thanks for any replies.
what do you think the promise of the microcontroller biz might mean for these guys over the next few years? IOT obviously becoming a big deal, where does it stand as a percentage of their total biz?
Pretty good earnings. For Freescale, that is. Largely benefited from the consumer microcontrollers. Quite interesting since on the other hand we hear ARM may be hit by slower smartphones sold. One would think the tablets where Freescale plays would have the same faith. But maybe not. However, Intel is playing in that field too so Freescale's march will be short lived.
If it wasn't for the microcontroller, the earnings would have been flat. Just flat with a crushing debt to service and with a constant share dilution of 5% per year. Too pricey. Let's go back to 12-14 $
In an industry accustomed to growth, this company is as flat as can be while having the nerve to carefully dissimulate a larger loss sequentially and YoY. The fact that they have rescheduled their debt lessens their burden but it does NOT eliminate it. For that, they need profitable growth. Where is it ??
It would have been perfect 0 GAPP net result if it were not those (59) millions for debt restructuring fees. Well, the results are bad anyway they would be spin.
Secondly, FSL diluted 1% their share count. BAD.
The equity sank by another 100 mil deeper into negative from yoy.
The only good news is that the 3Q is projected some 6-7% yoy increase, like TXN reported earlier this week.
Adjusted EPS: 0.09$
I was way wrong to the upside. This seems like a small disaster. No GAAP break-even? That is BAD.
Welcome to FSL board. I post some guesses in the past, around the earning release date. So, now is the time to do it again:
- Revenues: Wall Street will assume them to be in the upper limit of the projected range, based on the management preference for upside surprises. I would say even better at 1.050 B. If we look at the SIA reports about global semiconductor sales in Apr and May, they are flat (2 months) yoy. FSL will ride the market, last year they had 1.029 B, Maybe it is the rising trend of three months Mar/Apr/May that tells us a 6% improvement but it may not be sustained in June.
- Operating earnings: 140 mil
- Net income: 10-20 mil (after paying the debt interest)
Nothing to be overly excited. What I do not know is the forecast. Maybe it will not be that rosy, flat to 3% better.
CEO selling $2M. That should be a headline, not a comment on this board. If he's so un-confident of this stock why should any small investors be buying?
Yes, indeed. Insiders have been bailing out while a clueless obscure analyst upgraded the stock today !
At these levels, the stock is expensive, regardless of their debt rescheduling plans.
You are right but be careful. You call was right at 16-17. Now the stock is going to 13-14 which is more acceptable. The best price would be around 10 to buy. It is hard to loose at that level as the Blackstone owners would do anything in the medium term 1-2 years to influence some stock analysts to upgrade it.