The East Utica. That sounds like the dry Utica to me and that has not even been touched. A local project that I find interesting is NFG (Seneca) talk of running a half billion a day line into Clermont McKean PA to provide gas to Ontario. Marcellus wells from Clermont down toward Emporium are coming in from about 6 mcfd to as high as 11 mcfd. Seneca has already agreed to supply ethane to Shell and their proposed cracker. Shell has an extensive evaluation drilling project going on in the Northern Tier. About 12 multi well locations in Elk, Forest, McKean and Warren Counties. Seneca is right with them as far as evaluating their acreage. Shell picked up a lot of acreage in Tioga (further East) when they bought East Resoruces. Now I see Seneca is starting to drill in Tioga. I have read bloggers posts that claim some of their Tioga activities involves evaluating the Utica that far East. It would be dry gas as that what Seneca got in their Utica wells in McKean and Elk.
I just cannot help but thinking Shell has additional interests in helping Seneca supply gas to Ontario other than just moving product. In a couple of years with the probable growth in the Alberta Oil Sands and Duvernay and other shales in Alberta/BC, they will need some valuable right of ways and permits to move product to the Pacific Rim. Shell is joint ventured with the Chinese in Alberta and Montenay shales. It would not hurt at all if they can remind their Canadian friends how they took steps to see that Ontario had some of the cheapest gas in the World.
It could be an interesting winter. NYC just started to receive gas from the new line under the Hudson. I remember when this was proposed people said it would never happen. And NE is in a squeeze. They have restricted new lines into their area which could really hurt if they have a super cold stretch this winter.
From an article posted on iv mlp Msg 34433 of 34442 at 12/9/2013 11:08:12 AM by
Forbes: How To Play The Shale Boom's Next Phase
"....A more conservative way to play the shale boom is by investing in master limited partnerships, which now have a new supply of projects to increase dividends. Mark Reichman, with the Houston investment banking firm Simmons & Co., says Kinder Morgan is well positioned to capitalize on growing natural gas exports, including the $200 million Sierrita project that will transport gas from Arizona to northern Mexico–and help support gas prices in the U.S. Markwest Energy Partners is building a gathering-and-processing network to collect gas from wells in the Marcellus and Utica plays in Pennsylvania and Ohio, separating out the liquids that frequently flow with it.
Reichman also recommends a handful of MLPs that are investing in crude-oil transportation, including Crestwood Midstream Partners, which this year acquired Inergy to gain access to the Bakken shale; Enbridge Energy Partners, which is building projects to move heavy crude to the Gulf of Mexico and lighter Bakken oil to East Coast refineries; and Williams Partners, with its growing infrastructure in the Marcellus and interstate pipeline system.
Williams Cos., the operator of Williams Partners, plans to spend $3.3 billion expanding its gathering system in Pennsylvania through 2015, on top of the $5 billion in dividend-producing assets it already has there.
“I’ve worked all over the country–offshore Gulf of Mexico, Texas, the Rockies–and these are the biggest wells I’ve ever seen,” marvels Ryan Savage, regional vice president in charge of pipeline operations for Williams Cos., which will carry Cabot’s gas to market. “This resource is so huge, it’s just incredible.”
We talked about unit price movement before. CAGR, distribution growth, treasury yields, etc. For unit price action, outside of the other factors noted, my guess is a bottom at or near the 62 level, assuming a typical 50% retrace. At that price, it's big decision for me to buy more versus other equities. At 58 (unlikely), I will add more. In the past, the price never made it to the 50% retrace level, I would be surprised if it would reach that level in the coming weeks or months.
Did you read my post above. RRC is selling off 90,000 acres of Permian. ROR for Marcellus acreage in much better. That sounds crazy, but when you look at the economics of the Marcellus, especially in the wet and super wet, we are seeing well producing upwards of 6,000 bl/d versus RRC's Permian wells at about 450 to 500 bl/d. Then today, with the prediction for 2014 with WTI approaching 72 bl. the asset sell makes sense.
There are more NGL projects in the hopper than will be built. Bottom line is Australia is the big new player here. Cheapest gas and a country that wants to export. Would think that we will get probably 5 or 6 out of all those proposed.
The reason we do not discuss PPS is it means little to nothing for a MLP. Since there is no news and likely not to be any until January - MWE should simply move along as the overall MLP index moves.
Another convoluted post by you. FOR MLPS price reflects increase in distribution or % distribution or CAGR. The present problem with MWE price is low present CAGR-mediocre % distribution-not to spectacular distribution increase-year end selliong by funds-10 year treasury interest % increasing. Please return to 3 rd ring Jupiter As always Marv
Warren Buffett says a high selling price only benefits you if you are selling. If you are buying a lower price will buy you more value per Dollar spent.
Remember the price is what you pay. The value is what you get. You can buy more value for the same Dollars if the price is lower.
Most of these posters don't discuss the pps much, but that is ok. Its refreshing to learn about ongoing projects on the msg boards.
That being said, we've been taking a pretty bad beating since it hit $73. I'd like to see some stability in finding a bottom this week.
As exciting as these developments are, let us not forget the comment Semple made in the CC that the completion of the 60,000 barrel/day Hopedale fractionator is being brought forward to JANUARY,2014...like 30 days from now!! And with EPD now beginning line fill of ATEX and SXL finishing up Mariner West, the whole works will be cranking up in like six weeks. You have to believe the Cadiz RR yard is being finished,too. The addition to DCF by Feb 1 from depreciation alone is going to be a ton. Q1 CC should be a real eye opener...
I am not addressing in absolute terms what is more competitive Marcus Hook or Gulf ethane. IMO NE (Marcellus/Utica) will always be the high cost ethane vs SW ethane, IF, the Gulf is their only outlet. With Mariner East this gives NE ethane a chance to compete in World markets. As far as Europe is concerned I would say they will have an advantage over the Gulf. I notice that at least with one company they are targeting NE ethane.
Now as far as propane and condensates I just don't know enough about the price to say what outlets will be more advantages for NE NGL's. The whole market is so volatile change can occur in a hurry. It has only been the last several years the Gulf has opened up SA as a huge market for propane.
Of all these changes the one single pipeline proposal that blows my mind is the plan to reverse lines to ship condensate from the Gulf up to Alberta. Has this become so abundant that they have to get rid of it to keep the black oil producing. I know the Alberta oil sands need it but with the liquid rich Duvernay shale being developed it might be a risky venture.
the two projects plans will have close completion timings. SXL in "early (not sure what early means)" 2016 and KMP/MWE JV in "second" quarter 2016
Okay, thanks. Have you seen RigData's Locations and Operators report? Very detailed if you want to pay for it.
According to Range Resources the big benefit in separating out ethane is that the much more valuable propane yield is improved by 8% or so...and since propane is some 4-5 times more valuable than ethane this is a big deal....
It's a Patterson rig. A new one moving in today just ip the road. The rig locator on PTEN site I found out in the past is not always up to date.
Thinking your correct. One big pipe wrench for PAAD 3 is if the primary E&P outfit is taken out. Remember Shell noted about owning assets. Recall who really is in control of big money on the Norweigen side,i.e. the Oil Fund which controls Statoil. The Fund could easily fund a major acquistion, thus controlling the best of the super and wet Marcellus. The Monaca Shell cracker is then a done deal. Just suggesting this is possible. I would say MWE may be likely limited, may be not. I don't like this possible scenario, as we lose a US E&P outfit, and double worse, MWE is restricted or controlled by one downstream customer. The pipe wrench could be around us SW Pa. E&P as well as MWE unit holders. Be careful of the so called blue-eyed arabs.
I don't think Marcus Hook with ethane is really in competition with Texas and the Gulf Coast To my knowledge the Gulf Coast exports are almost all propane with some butane going mainly to South America.etc..and I have not yet seen crackers in South America. That ethane will be shipped to Europe for all the crackers there is inevitable. You also have to consider the value and volumes of the products shipped. At 70,000 barrels/day Mariner East 1 only has a capacity of 25 million barrels /day. Throw in a few unit trains of propane and local Philadelphia are refinery propane and perhaps it is 40 million barrels of propane/ethane per year. And exports won't even hit that level until late 2014. EPD today is exporting 100 million barrels of propane and Targa another 40million barrels/year..ethane costs like $10/barrel and propane $40+/ barrel..so EPD/Targa ARE ALREADY SHIPPING $6 BILLION/year of propane/butane out of the USA..and SXL Marcus Hook is way behind. When the Panama Canal expansion is complete in 2015, the Panamax VLGC vessels will be carrying mega more tons of propane etc to Asia. And you can bet that the Asians will be building PDH plants converting propane to propylene like EPD will be doing in Mont Belvieu. Also, note this week that USA residential propane prices are up 14% and inventories are down 25% compared to last year as a result of EPD/TARGA propane exports...MWE and its' producer customers are going to make a ton!!
MWE is a big winner. With their downstream stripping, de ethanizers, and fractionation plants the more product their customers can sell the more business that will come to MWE. There is another element at work with the ethane removal. This will cut the methane yield down a percentage which will mean more business for dry gas.
Money: The amazing part of it all is the short perspective of the sellors that have sold MWE down about $10 in the past few weeks in answer to the temporary shortfall in DCF recently announced by MWE. IMHO a longer term viewpoint than three months is necessary to garner the full potential of the MWE story going forward.
Patience will win this battle.
in addition to Seneca 1 and Majorsville 5 already announced for 4th quarter