take a look at the news links. I'm assuming the debt was placed successfully. That was the big hangup, so higher probability of close if it's closed out.
Means the notes will only be offered to "accredited" (usually institutional) investors. They will not be listed/traded on an exchange.
imo the real case scenario could be:
- no deal
- price temporary low (in the higher ten - lower 20s) or even temporarily stopped from trading till things get worked-out
- investigate what they did and the many potential collusions (eventually remove the ones at fault according to the findings)
- repeat the buyout offer and pick a fair deal (for investors, not what vr thinks works for him)
- price back to way over 24
- all (investors) happy
and also (imo) :
- to extract some profit via vista (which is created by former goldman m/a guys)
- to get a "deal" from vr on the arena (see the concession plans)
and who knows what other things we may not even be aware of..
but a good investigative journalist (if we can find one) should be able to untangle these many wires and show us this beautiful tapestry they've built together..
oh yeah.. if you see him focusing to the "long-term-vision" it's a life altering moment..
apparently he "digitized wall street" by just staring at it for a while
like the guys who could bend spoons with their power of thought
the question is did they bend other things as well ? like the rule and regulations? like the ethics code ? like the conflicts of interests?
not sure if that's the case, just checking, in case somebody has an answer
because besides receiving the 5billion... maybe he can share with us, maybe with a qualified person (a judge?) how he did/does this amazing wizardry.. and how comes others don't get any of that magic golden dust that seems to follow him..
i'm sure thousands of his former investors would be very happy to hear that story..
imo they meand "tibco going to the private with vr at the helm"
well.. duh.. that was the plan from the beginning..
you didn't think vr gave away the company for nothing just so only vista can suck the cash..
he has to continue to participate to the bonanza.. investors be damned !!
imo this is yet another of the many "in your face" collusions in this "deal"
we really need an investigative journalist here imo
#$%$ need not apply (yes @kk, that's you)
i believe the wsj dude who started the series about the deal could be a good candidate if somebody can get a hold of him..
it could be like the grand finale for his article:
"GS-VR-BOD: Or - Today Let's Play 'Where is The Collusion' for 4Billion and Change( it ?) "
not sure how it will work out, i'm not an expert in that kind of stuff, but i'm sure all the tibco investors would LOVE to read that article and hope it has a happy ending (for them - for once...)
i hoped somebody will notice the big swindle imo the gs-vr-bod trio is working out here :
- an "activist" asks the company to sell
- an "advisor" advises the company to sell to whoever they want, not to whoever is good for co
- a "buyer" who used to work with the advisor gets a v cheap deal
- the bod turns a blind eye - spreadsheets included (see the "ooops, i did it again" blunder u mention)
- gs gets a good deal for the kings arena..
- the activist goes mum and evaporates
..and start asking : "how many collusions are here ?"
or "is this all, or there are some other things that we are not seeing?" like "how did a company move from +600mil to -500mil in a few short years, while the ceo is buying big ticket items?" and "how many conflicts of interests are in this deal?" or "how this deal compare with other deals as far as the nr of conflicts of interests?"
etc etc etc
imo - all good questions to ask one day - and that day is coming
and when somebody will ask them, the vr-gs-bod would be in big trouble..
and the deal would have to be closed..
and the trio will have to save face..
and some real offers to be entertained..
we just need a brave investigative journalist take charge and sort things out here
it can be a career expanding move..
just see the forex investigations recently.. i really think that kind of mess will hit the m&a area soon - because if you think there are troubles in denmark (not only with the kronner), wait till they move in palo alto, or manhattan.. or both..