American Capital Mortgage Inves Message Board

that's fine my guess is amtg runs mitt down

so mitt goes up 1 okay I bet amtg goes 1.5 to 2 bucks same time

I don't care if they go up or down for the pairs part but I do have net shorts in mitt too so I do care prefer if it rolls over. sooner or later mitt will be just too high over book that failure of management to do one and be highly accretive would be questioned.

mitt was here earlier and amtg was 1 dollar higher so looking for that 4 percent move back

I don't know reik, I'm thinking mitt could go $26.50 before spo due to dividend run up. Mtge and agnc I think could hit 25.75 and 33.50 pre ex distribution. The entire sector may rebound due to the dividend run ups and if the agency mbs rally back on European fears or for whatever reason. Markets are nuts.

good short regardless off offering - crack one and its gravy

good we have both on

not to mention rso missed recent earnings efc didn't.

dx likely to get jammed up there at the dollar as well.

sm - gotcha indeed (ha! back, I say on to thee)

just got home from a pre-preakness party where we drew the #s’ for the pool
$10K per box……
wish me luck on sat........

GOOD FOR YOU, tf..............

I only placed a few cards on it,
Today concerned me but not enough to take the meager gain. In the IRA's I am inclined to hold past divy. In the trading accounts take the profits.
Now that the big dogs have reported in, it is free to run. run like the wind
My new price target is 114 by the end of next week....
.....
,,,,

Ha! gotcha.

I also ended up closing my position when NTI returned to $27. Whether or not it has a final bounce Monday (would not be surprising given how restrained it's felt in the past few days, including vs. some peers), I kept discipline & booked a reasonable gain today.

Nothing about this market would surprise me much at this point. We could rip 1000 Dow points higher or lower, and it would make about as much sense.

Now to find the next Quarter Horse to bet on...

Agency mbs was down sharply today yet mtge rallied. My thoughts are that if mbs rallies back next week mtge will go up pretty fast given the support for the stock.

Sentiment: Strong Buy

I really hope so!

i originally bot way too much -50K shares. then in & out to bring it down to 25K shares.
i have been selling every time it crossed the 27 mark. i'm completely out now.
not because of it's NTI, but i smell an across the board profit taking on monday.
i've been wrong before.
gl2a NTI longs!

Keeping my options till monday.That down blip was probably Xion selling his calls.

Looks like that horse race got rained out today...

You guys throwing in the cards or holding out a little longer? I sold half my position earlier today when NTI first headed negative. TBD what I'll do with the other half.

Slegermark - I trade both FSC and PSEC and I've been long and short them both at times, independently but not paired up yet.

Someone (maybe it was you?) commented a while back on the AGNC board that you could trade FSC both long and short around it's cycle.

As you know, they are both monthly payors and have differently cycles as FSC is a mid-month ex and PSEC is an end of month ex. Thus, pairing them up would work well. Note that FSC has been a bit weaker vs. PSEC the last few days now that FSC has had it's ex.

The only issue as of late is that PSEC has been doing time to time SPOs. They mentioned it in their latest earnings release and 10-Q. That seems to be keeping a lid on upward price movement but as long as you are aware of it, you can still trade the swings.

JT, have you ever looked at the BDC's for pairs? They seem to be quite predictable in a channel. I buy FSC around 10.8 and try to sell and short around 11.0. It is good for a few cycles every month. That is when my capital is not tied up in longer trades.

Philosophically my highest hurdle has been shorting, but now I am finding it more comfortable than buying long in this situationally toppy market.

I decided it was too much of a gamble[puts]. And I do not have the capital for pairs trading.... yet. So I watch and learn.

Sure. A paired trade makes sense if you want to hedge your risk.