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American Capital Mortgage Investment Corp. Message Board

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  • Check out SSR they just came out with an email report on MTGE, pretty interesting report. If you're a trader you should sign up to their free newsletter regardless. Their last downgrade was on PLUG, next day it tanked 40%...LOL

  • Check out SSR they just came out with an email report on MTGE, pretty interesting report. If you're a trader you should sign up to their free newsletter regardless. Their last downgrade was on PLUG, next day it tanked 40%...LOL

  • Reply to

    MTGE UPGRADED MUST READ - OMG!

    by tiffierettorekifm May 26, 2014 1:18 PM

    ...I see "spamming" is taking on some sophistication, with multiple aliases making it look like several posters are agreeing with the original poster of nothing but SPAM! Nice try jerkoff! Get the hell off this board!

  • If you look at the most recent short interest data.. and track back to last year.. You'll see a melt up in short interest and a melt down.. As of late, the short interest on stocks like AGNC, MTGE, NLY, WMC... The mREITs with the highest short interest (ORC, JMI, AI) did not go down as much as the rest - despite a number of factors that would suggest all three should've followed suit.

    Also of note are CYS, ARR.. They did not follow AGNC/NLY as much - this isn't residual momo from the upgrade from Compass. The only thing that they have in common is that they were the only two who had a sizable uptick in shares sold short.

    Also.. overall.. rates going up will be fantastic. libor, treasury.. you name it.. If only to see all the levered momo muppets out there get #$%$ slaughtered as they try for the hardest part of the greater fool game.. Most mREITs (aside from ORC).. have borderline-frivolous 'swap protection'. I think AGNC/MTGE took some off in their tradition of doing things too late. The reality tho is that libor would have to be meaningfully higher for most swaps to be positive carry. One can be swapped up to the heavens and still get a margin call due to the fixed rate securities declining in price. This would come from other levered players, which are not hedged.. selling in their frenzied fashion.

    It is nice to see a bit of steepening in the curve. Diff between the 30yr CMS and 5 year CMS.. 1.33 .. today is probably much better. Last year the average was 2.05, before that.. 1.68 (2012),. Got as low as .16bps in 2000.. But that was a 6.93 30yr cms rate and a 6.77 5yr

    I digress. Nice to have some vola back.. though the vix was manipuslammed from low 14s to low 13s. I swear vola only goes up so it can go down to boost up stocks.

  • So Q2 ends with the 10 yr yield at 2.53. Unless Kain completely F'd up the BV is going up from the Q1end of $21.78. One has to think it will be the other side of $22. So why is this thing trading at $20 and what has to happen for the MV match the BV?

  • Reply to

    MITT FAILED TO REPORT EARNINGS.

    by pacman010987 Aug 5, 2014 9:18 PM

    agree with alkkov, in here we welcome any reit news and consider it relevant .Also, most of us own more than just mtge.

  • Reply to

    MTGE Q2 Earnings

    by hatedahft Jul 30, 2014 4:44 PM

    "Looks good but who knows how the market reacts. AGNC got clobbered and MTGE is easier to grind down."

    ditto hate ... MTGE's report was good, but Agnc's report was IMO better and it's down more than $1 from Monday's high. I think AGNC had run up into earnings a bit more than MTGE - but still ... one has to wonder. One can argue that today's action was due to the good GDP print and the arguably somewhat more hawkish Fed outlook, but seriously - I don't see the Fed changing it's tone/guidance meaningfully before the end of the 1st qtr and spread income (as opposed to BV and possibly dollar roll income) will actually be benefited by slightly higher mtg rates.

    Bottom line is that AGNC was down 2.34% vs. MTGE being down only .89% - so one has to wonder whether MTGE gets hit tomorrow - or was today's action a one-day phenomenon related to the FED/GDP announcements that gets digested tomorrow. Of course Friday's jobs # could also be a mkt mover.

  • Reply to

    MITT FAILED TO REPORT EARNINGS.

    by pacman010987 Aug 5, 2014 9:18 PM

    This board has the least amount of savages. What happens with MITT and/or others.. impacts MTGE/AGNC share price. It's very relevant.

    BTW.. this is not the first time MITT did not post earnings immediately after market close. Sometimes they (and others) post at 8pm..

  • Reply to

    OT - SDRL

    by hatedahft Sep 12, 2014 12:21 PM

    I bought some today at 31.16 Sold some 27 strike puts too

  • its up and down

    for sure added wmc and shorted others and trying to lean long

  • Reply to

    The end of Q2

    by hatedahft Jul 1, 2014 9:33 AM

    Well you have non-agencies and agencies both up pretty good in Q2. And... non-agencies up more than agencies.. so... Book actually might be closer to $23 since spreads narrowed and non-agency is up so much. I am long 21,500 shares and 215 sept $20 call options @ 0.50/share cost.

  • Everybody gets 65 cents a share. Talk about coordinated. Makes me think MTGE will never get out from AGNC's thumb and is doomed to trade at a lower multiple for a long time to come.

  • WHLRP has a 25 asking price. I was able to pick up 720 at 24.96.. This has a 9% coupon and for the sake of clarity.. distributions declared a year out.

  • Reply to

    Crazy action in AGNC calls

    by capecoralvorlon Jun 27, 2014 3:10 PM

    Funny you mention the Aug $25 calls--picked some up today at $.06. With FN 4% @ 1yr highs seems to me BV for June should be around $26, so the $25 calls at essentially nothing seem like a layup.

  • Yup.. .67, BV 15.44 . No one posted this.. so I will. Everyone has declared except for PMT (which will probably declare next wk or tmrw)

    I have a lot.. Nice to see it not getting manically high (short interest has declined precipitously as of late)..

  • Reply to

    The end of Q2

    by hatedahft Jul 1, 2014 9:33 AM

    I see no reason that the stock couldn't move to $24, a slight premium to book value over the next 3 months. Earnings report should give a lift - along with analyst upgrades. This used to trade dollars per share above book. Also.. think about it this way.. as they build out the MSR platform... interest rate risk will drop because the MSR hedges a lot of rate risk.. So NAV vol drops but the returns stay high from the dividend income. Should be a winning situation for getting the stock back above book.

  • Reply to

    MTGE & AGNC

    by hatedahft Jun 17, 2014 7:54 PM

    You would think that the spread between MTGE and AGNC would shrink.. because you can sell AGNC and buy more shares of MTGE to get a higher yield while having less rate risk.

  • Reply to

    MTGE & AGNC

    by hatedahft Jun 17, 2014 7:54 PM

    well hatedahft, MTGE could be at an even bigger discount to book. Non-agency is outperforming agency mbs lately.. so.. maybe $22.40 to $22.80 book on MTGE not including dividend. MTGE should be able to push it's book value up... back to it's historic highs in the 24's.. especially if rates are still stuck in low vol mode and non-agency continues to do well. Yet the P/B is still really weak. Not much sense in that. When do we get back to trading at a multiple of book? 1.05x to 1.20x range. Alkkov, I don't think MTGE will run with more fed-funds risk. Being a hybrid gives you a larger spread, and i bet they keep on all the same swaps but just add MSR to give it less rate risk overall. Sure, limits the upside if rates move lower, but i think they are more focused on generating positive carry with a stable book value.

  • Reply to

    agnc today

    by brucemacnabb Jul 29, 2014 4:26 PM

    I think he means that AGNC was down 1% when:

    1/ 10 yr went down 0.03 to 2.46
    2/ net spread and roll income was 85 cents so it will easily cover the 65 cent div
    3/ BV jumped 7 per cent in Q2.

    Not that logic means much with mreits but today was a head scratcher of a day.

  • BV jumps 4.4% or 95 cents
    Net spread income and dollar roll per share rises from 0.59 to 0.72
    UTI drops but still strong at 53 cents per share

    Looks good but who knows how the market reacts. AGNC got clobbered and MTGE is easier to grind down.

MTGE
20.00+0.13(+0.65%)Sep 16 4:00 PMEDT

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