Not sure I like this price activity - sure seems like a distribution situation right now - maybe best to peel it off here at 10, sit this out for a time and maybe fight again another day. My stop's in at 10 and that still leaves me with a nice profit. Somethin stinks here so I think it'll be adias for now. To bad - the fundamentals were really shaping up.
Sorry; I misread today's volume the first time as 95K - it was like 55k or just over half the average volume, so that's more indicative of the normal price action with lighter than average volume - so we may just be dealing with the regular crop of innee/outee traders picking up nickels and dimes. I'm not a chart enthusiast, but it still looks fairly good to me under the circumstances. Testing in the lower tens and gradually recovering would probably be a healthy sign for whatever that's worth.
Volume near the average with continued downside. Could signal another buying opportunity coming if hot money players make the flawed decision that recent rains will end draught concerns and with it the impetus to pursue, and value of, alternate sustainable water supply expansion solutions.
I suppose the small gain at the close is something of a result given the lows today. Some talk of an ETF entry for the stock on Friday which may have pumped up the volume and the share price, so perhaps we had a short-term reaction to that which held back today's gains. Make no mistake, however: this contract announcement is the single most important release the company has ever put out. This is the first time we have detailed economics, from the primary take prices to storage, from a major customer. And those economics, particularly for storage, are plainly staggering, and support price targets in excess of $50 for the shares. I will be writing more on valuation in the weeks to come, but in the meantime I will be buying more and I suspect I will have a lot of company as the significance of this game-changing contract slowly washes over the market.
Great deal for the company and the storage component is huge and I'm glad to see it. Selling 50k acre ft per year is nice and probably worth mid 20s for the stock. The storage potential is the real home run.
Very few people even know this company exists and no analyst coverage, which is likely the reason for strange stock moves. I am happy to see the volume in the stock has increased and is more consistent.
The sale of another 20% of current capacity to San Luis at almost a grand per af - pretty much consistent with expectations - plus a storage deal with management fees. What did the market expect? Seems like a decent way to cap off a good year. Why a sell-off?
looks like it will finish += $11.50 and that's a full buck over what I projected. No worries, that's a nice additional $10,000 holiday bonus for me - and no real news yet since the SMWD affirmation.
I have to believe this oil bust will take some wind out of the neighboring slime miners' sails, so their frivolous litigation against CDZI may just fade.
Hard to say where and when it goes from here, but things seem to be generally well positioned for the company to move forward with the water project. Like everything else, the market price of water is unpredictable, so we may have some exposure there to watch. Regardless of how many more wells are drilled and how much more rain and snow we get, SoCal still needs long term water sourcing solutions and CDZI is one of them.
Happy New Year and GLTA
Cadiz Inc (NASDAQ:CDZI) is in a strong bear grip; the short interest is registered high at 11.4% of the floated shares. Each share is trading at $11.15, which is merely 50.6% above the 52-week low and 25.2% below the 52-week high. However, any positive news coming from the counter could result in massive unwinding of short positions, which may lead to a swift price escalation.. Cadiz Inc (NASDAQ:CDZI) has posted gains of 0.63% or 0.07 points. After opening at $11.02, the shares hit an intraday high of $11.25 and an intraday low of $11.02, before closing the session at $11.15. The shares had closed the previous session at $11.08. The volume recorded at the end of the day stood at 45,262 shares. Traders and speculators must note that Cadiz Inc (NASDAQ:CDZI) has a 52-week high of $14.9. The company has a market cap of $181 million with the total number of outstanding shares at 16,205,000. The 52-week low of the price is $5.5.
November 18, 2014 – The Board of Directors of the Santa Margarita Water District (“SMWD”) voted on Friday, November 14, 2014 to approve a Joint Powers Agreement (“JPA”) with Cadiz Inc. and the Fenner Valley Mutual Water Company establishing the Fenner Valley Water Authority (“FVMA”), an entity that will control and operate the capital facilities for the Cadiz Valley Water Conservation, Recovery & Storage Project (“Project”) following construction. Once built, Cadiz will lease the Project facilities to the FVWA (the JPA). SMWD, in its role as the managing agency of the FVWA, will retain control over the facilities, including day to day operation of the well field, and carrying out the Project’s compliance with the approved groundwater management plan that will be enforced by the local county government.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Fair enough. It would be more comforting if these issues were flagged more definitively in filings since it raises a legitimate concern that may influence new or returning investors going forward. Great news on the letter - a good indication of a more friendly regulatory environment emerging. Thanks for the clarification and info on the letter.
no, sierra, there is nothing confusing, no 'persons of influence' nor anything remotely sinister here. The vast majority of these shares are represented by the $55m convertible bond, which are absolutely standard pay-in-kind securities now $1 'in the money' and should be very well known to all investors. They are owned by individuals (primarily in CA as B Riley did the placement) and a couple of hedge funds. Other than the CB, there are a few tranches of warrants that have been issued to execs in lieu of cash compensation in the past which are mostly out-of-the-money and have not and will not be adjusted. Absolutely nothing unusual and certainly nothing that hasn't been well flagged in previous filings. Far more important, which has not been well-enough publicized, was yesterday's complete reversal by local Congressman Cook, who hasdropped his demand for a federal review and written to the DOI to support of exspeditious approval of right-of-way (you can find the letter posted on Cadiz's website). This has occured of course right after the Republicans takeover of the Senate and should leave shareholders in little doubt that this final hurdle for the company - the right to build its pipeline - has overnight become far more likely and far, far more imminent. This is a sea-change and though the share price may take a week or 2 to digest it, I can tell you for free, that when it does, it will make your year-end predictions seem very modest indeed.
This is the primary concern for new shareholders. I know a certain occasional poster here may disagree, but the dilutive impact of the shadow shares is significant and likely subject to very favorable terms given to the holders of warrants, converts and options as necessitated during the darker times. This may remain a headwind for quite some time and management really should be more clear on this - even if it is only to note that the shadow stock represents 50% of the regular reported outstanding shares. These are non or privately traded securities so it is difficult to pin a market value on them. The seniority and premiums of these holders is well deserved as they provided CDZI with life support and comfort when many counted it out. It would not surprise me to learn down the road that a material fraction of these instruments are being held in the family trusts of various, shall we say, "persons of influence" who have and will accommodate(d) comforts for CDZI in the future.
Bottom line, though, as I have indicated, don't count on much more than $10 PPS on this in the near term until materially good news and/or some further litigation hurdles being cleared. Even then, the afore mentioned dilution will restrain sustainable PPS growth after significant good news. While this is certainly not dead money, it is also not a short term play and may require 2-3 years to mature into a $30+ PPS if things go reasonably well without adverse events.
Very confusing report! Portion of report is here:
NOTE 5 - NET LOSS PER COMMON SHARE
Basic net loss per share is computed by dividing the net loss by the weighted-average common shares outstanding. Options, deferred stock units, warrants and the zero coupon term loan convertible into or exercisable for certain shares of the Company's common stock were not considered in the computation of diluted net loss per share because their inclusion would have been antidilutive. Had these instruments been included, the fully diluted weighted average shares outstanding would have increased by approximately 8,713,000 and 6,485,000 for the three months ended September 30, 2014 and 2013, respectively, and 8,477,000 and 8,142,000 for the nine months ended September 30, 2014 and 2013, respectively.
Looks like kind of a Texas two-step on that one - popped on the rumor and sold back off on the news - heavy volume both ways.
I'm still saying this is $10 at year end, ok by me, baring any material and directly related news or a major marked correction.
Next pop will be on announcing a favorable new water sale and/or commencement of capital projects - which I assume will have to wait until all plaintiff remedies are exhausted. One nice thing is that Tetra might lose some interest in this pursuit if oil prices start impacting their driller customers.
Big (political) night for Cadiz. In particular, if anyone here has any doubt that a Republican-controlled Senate is good news for this company, let me be the first to clear up that misperception. Without her party as Chair of the appropriations committee, Sen Feinstein no longer has the budget leverage to threaten (sorry: motivate) directors at the BLM on projects like Cadiz. Conversely of course, Republican have a sliiiiiiightly more business-friendly reputation, and I believe Cadiz management has been pretty active in developing support within the party in Washington. As for the Water Bond, signs early in the day that it would pass was the popular reason why our share price went vertiginous late in the session. I have no reason to doubt that, but the market should very much be focused on politics when we re-open Thursday.
Sentiment: Strong Buy