First week of October is speculation (on my part). Simply the same calendar days following completion of enrollment as the Oral. But when I did the calculation, I made no allowance for the holidays preceeding the January announcement of top line data for the Oral study. I suspect we have another month of sp games and accumulation before things get serious. Beware the trialing stop, intraday the smart boys will grab your stock.
Here, here! I'm with you. But beware that there is nothing easy about commercialization, though I think this management shoiuld take it in stide. The road will be bumpy for us longs if they go that route as execution will be criticized by the same folks who are now naysayers. There will be a new shelf, and a sales force that will require training and time to achieve pentration. This will likely result in one or more earings calls reporting unexpectedly higher losses for filling the pipeline with inventory (note the 4mm charge taken last qtr). These will be buying opportunities for those who think that this company will, when firing on all cylinders, run, run, split and run.
You're in the wrong business. Think about it. Under the guise of being a towel boy at the yacht club, you managed to infiltrate an inner circle of senior mutual fund management and gained enough trust to obtain borderline illegal stock trading info. You belong in the CIA dude.
Conspiracy is a hobby for many. My thought is that shorts are for the most part hedges and the reason we are trading sideways and the sp is porpoising is that we are in the grip of ruthless accumulation. Small float will go through a wash rinse repeat with computers accumulating a position by selling round lots all day and buying back round lots+. When the price range yields no more shares, it will pop to a new range and the action will repeat. Isuspect that this will continue until news or time for the strategy begins to run out, say week 2 of October. While I doubt that this message board moves the market, you have to question the persistant efforts to erode the confidence of longs, here and elsewhere without a single argument of merit.
You tell 'em dog. I have to say I'm disappointed in some posters here who I thought were pretty market savvy. You mean you've never heard of the old Buy-n-Bash strategy? Sure it isn't used as much these days; it reached its peak of popularity in 1929, 1987, and also made a comeback in 2008. You see, buyout valuations are based in part on the sp at the time of the offer. What you wanna do is establish a long position in a likely buyout candidate and then, here is the real key, help maximize the sp by spreading doubt wherever possible. The internet is probably the best tool for this. Stock movement is all about momentum, and every little bit helps.
CEMP showed some very strong technicals this week that should lead the stock back higher. I believe it's been kept down by market volatility, sector rotation and lack of news.
1) CEMP held the trend line established by the low price marks over the past few months
2) CEMP held over it's 200 day moving average (daily chart) despite this week's selloff
3) A rare bullish engulfing candle formed today
4) CEMP closed near it's high of the day.
I fully expect the stock to move technically higher as traders take note of these events. The press on TTPH didn't hurt either. News from the fundamental side will cause it rocket higher.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
A 15 patient Phase 2 trial, even if positive may not drive the share price along the same lines as ICPT but if positive and a followup Phase 3 is great, you really could see 200 on share price as that is a huge market. I am not convinced ICPT's drug is the answer and it is too early to say about macrolides in NASH, but what I like is that Prabha is pushing the envelope on how we think of antibiotics. It also tells me they are pretty convinced it is safe enough on the liver to use on a daily basis in liver disease.
thanks for the info. I am in it for mainly the NASH trials success. I keep reading that the potential is unlimited.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Rosetta worded it best. Just shut up. The more you write the more you lie. It's a shame you call yourself dog as that is an insult to real dogs. In Chinese astrology dogs represent honesty and you have none of that trait. Your imaginary contact at an imaginary company(which you won't name) making up imaginary scenarios about FDA approval is something a third grader might come up with. Find something better to do with your break time at Waffle House than to write nonsense on here.
Nobody is implying problems with Solithromycin, just the opposite. The concern is that the FDA will find it highly effective but recommend use when other, less powerful antibiotics have failed in order to slow down the resistance curve. Not saying that will happen, just saying it is a risk factor that is impacting the stock price currently. That becomes less of a risk, for any reason, this stock accelerates it's climb. Also, probably not a zero sum game...if it is labeled as an antibiotic of last resort (so to speak) that would likely support a much higher cost per treatment.
Seriously? Everyone chill on my post...except for the conspiracy theorists that are holding to the belief that the dark forces of buyout artists are lurking on the Yahoo message boards trying to bait you into selling your 100 shares...you guys (dr_j_yellen) are way too entertaining to stop now. That said, I was pretty forthcoming, I've been long for over a year, I'm long now and I intend to stay long. Read a great book many years ago by Lynch who talked about tapping sources of information...trading on legal insider information. I did that...got to know some senior level folks at a pretty highly regarded mutual fund company in the State I live and do business in. 3 year later, saw they were holders of CEMP so I made a call, got referred to a research analyst who talked with me on the phone for 5 minutes as a favor to a (senior level) co-worker. There were no dark allies, dank halls or robed escorts leading me to secret inner chambers...just a phone call with a simple question; "any idea what is keeping CEMP down in the face of what seems like good news after good news?" I shared what I was told, I certainly didn't relentlessly quiz the guy, he was doing me a favor and didn't know me from Adam. Keep in mind, this company likes CEMP, they hold it in several funds. So nobody here is trying to convince anybody of anything, certainly not claiming this is a sketchy company or a short candidate, quite to the contrary. If you want to dismiss what I was told then do so...to label him as an idiot seems a bit arrogant but to each their own. But seriously, some sort of dark conspiracy theory...are you taking a Yahoo message board a little seriously? In the end, I just am looking for a simple answer to a simple question, with everything going seemingly so right with CEMP, why are we trading sideways 20-30% below the high? If anyone has a better answer (one that doesn't imply dark conspiracy theories) I am one person here who is eager to learn.
Yup. The world is creaming their pants for a new powerful macrolide on steroids. Don't read these message boards. As the analysts have predicted….. Cemp to the 50's and when Gono data comes in you will see 60's. What a gift this correction was. You have to see the forest thru the trees. Even at 36 this thing is super ,unbelievably cheap.
this is #$%$ "there is concern that the FDA will restrict the labeling and prevent Solithromycin from being used as first course treatment. "
Some good bio lagged the run up. I expect rotation back in to the best bio with near term catalysts. That means Cemp,TTPH. Cemp should be back to 40 in no time at all. Thanks to those that sold me shares in the low 30's again.