cats is having fun.
it all boils down to interpretation,
some stocks are considered highly speculative, normally hi risk hi reward,
others will be considered investment style, relatively stable
unfortunately pgh currently resembles that of a falling knife, rarely predictable unless we look back,
the reason I mentioned earlier why I tend not to average down
If "speculation" is defined as ... "The verb speculate has a specialized meaning in the world of finance — it means to take a financial risk, in the hopes of monetary gain."
Personally, I see no difference between "investing" and "speculation". Investors THINK they have an edge, and FEEL they are making a logical decision with their money. IMO, regardless how you define it, investing is a speculation ... "to take a financial risk in the hopes of a monetary gain."
Investing, trading, and speculation are DIFFERENT from gambling, where you have NO CONTROL over the outcome.
I agree that "technically" a paper loss and an actual loss are different. However, with a paper loss, you NO LONGER have use of your money, so it is a fallacy to think you haven't "lost" anything. You loss may recover, but then again, it may not, even in your life time.
IMO, a loss is a loss, whether you realize it or not.
If the Big Boys are anticipating a rise in interest rates the last thing they would be doing is buying long term bonds. As interest rates rise the value of long term bonds falls.
In any event your commentary on technical indicators is well worth reading.
I remember Feb 2013, but my point was that you can dollar cost average every 3 months instead of bottom fishing and not break the true first rule of investing (don't lose your capital).
I enjoy reading your posts; stay pompous.
Two issues with your comment though:
1) Investing and Speculating are not the same. You sound like an intelligent speculator (as defined in Graham's The Intelligent Investor), which is fine and I'm glad you are successful. Following is a definition of speculation from wikipedia:
Speculation is the practice of engaging in risky financial transactions in an attempt to profit from fluctuations in the market value of a tradable good such as a financial instrument, rather than attempting to profit from the underlying financial attributes embodied in the instrument such as capital gains, interest, or dividends.
2) Also, paper losses and real losses are different. A real loss is permanent in the sense that it can be used offset other gains for tax purposes, and it forces the investor to admit the truth. But a paper loss has no tax consequence until realized!
4 bucks a share?
Mrs. Snow White asks:
What sort of "Dummkopf" do you represent?
Real, or strictly for humor, like cartoons derive from Imagination?
Besides the long term investors here, does ANYONE have any knowledge about TRADING?
I'd love to engage them in a meaningful conversation re making money by trading ~
twoblackcats - A Professional TRADER ~
When I was ready to pay for my purchases of 9 mm ammo
the cashier said, "Strip down, facing me."
Making a mental note to complain to the NRA about the gun control wackos running amok, I did just as she had instructed.
When the hysterical shrieking and alarms finally subsided, I found out that she was referring to how I should place my credit card in the card-reader.
I have been asked to shop elsewhere in the future.
They need to make their instructions to us seniors a little clearer.
I still don't think I looked that bad.
Keep smoking your dope or whatever drug you're taking ...
As a decent person, I HOPE you don't suffer too badly!
Some day, you will learn, after you really get burned ~ The market has no shame for taking your money, nor does it have any pity ~
Maybe the BIG BOYZ are dumping dividend paying stocks and are moving to long term bonds, anticipating a rise in interest rates? THINK ABOUT IT ~
animal house ...
there is a difference among investing, trading, and speculation.
In fact, investing AND trading are speculation ... as defined, "investment in stocks, property, or other ventures in the hope of gain but with the risk of loss."
The main difference between investing and trading is TIME .. both have RISK. This recent down trend shows that PGH has lots of risk! So why not trade because the short term swings are closer to reality than a long term pipe dream?
Regardless of how much money one has, it makes very little sense to risk it in an uncertain future. A 7% dividend is no consolation when this recent equity loss from $7.20 to $5.53 (-$1.67 LOSS) will take 46 MONTHS of dividends at the rate of $0.36 per share to recover the equity loss. To me, a paper loss is the same as a realized loss since your money is not available to you.
Professional traders know this, and they trade vs invest. The only time I would invest is when I have so control over the outcome, like owning a business. When you invest in stocks over the long term, you have NO CONTROL of the events of the day, like supply/demand, wars, political decisions, changes in laws, or mismanagement by the company officials.
1. True, but they do private stuff with investors, such as site visits and one on one...kinky but true ;)
2. I think PGH is more correlated to NG..but its worth some work to confirm.
3. Demand for oil is increasing globally, but the market in Canada and the US has its own spreads.
Realize over all efficiencies are increasing on fuel consumption, we are using less gas.
4. Technically speaking...uggggg ! PGH looks awful
5. I'm not sure what your going for here, reading the transcripts of the CC is always " A to DO "
6. From old TITUS... we have a serious seller, and they have their foot on our toe... why ? IMHO
If your going to refer to Pengrowth prices over the last two years why not mention the low of $3.82 on February 26, 2013. That price convinced me that the company stock had nowhere to go but up and it wasn't long before I began to accumulate a significant position - which I still hold today - in Pengrowth stock.
For long term investors in pengrowth THE BEST IS YET TO COME.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I'm new to this board, but as a long-term investor would like to offer a couple reasons folks might add to a PGH position.
1) There is no public PGH performance news attached to the recent decline.
2) PGH is strongly correlated with oil prices, and oil prices always drop before Nov in election years (check out 2012, 2010, and 2008).
3) U.S. folks cannot buy enough SUVs this year, so demand for oil will soon return.
4) If it stays at this level or below for 30 days, then it is an opportunity to add to a position and then sell in 30 days to realize a "paper loss", avoiding the wash rule (assuming a taxable account).
5) Investing is not about High Freq Trading and algorithms--that is speculation. Information about PGH is generally released quarterly, which means the best time to evaluate holdings is every 3 months. I vary this formula, but here are some approximate values of PGH over the last 2 years (dates approx):
If you bought an equal position every 3 months in PGH (dollar cost averaged) over this time, the average cost of shares would have been about 5.72.
But would have also received roughly .036*12 = .43/share in dividends
Making the cost of shares about 5.29.
I'm not saying there isn't some serious risk with this stock; just that there is considerable near-term volatility (order of a few months) with it.
It's Hard to be Humble When You Are Perfect in Every Way ~
For those of you who are interested in technical signals (not long term investors) ...
waiting for it to get above 20.0, still sitting in CASH
MACD is signaling SELL (not buy) ..
twoblackcats - A Professional Trader