ps I am equal weight PGH at just north of $4 so I sure haven't got this one right . Some share were purchased at $15 . I myself am planning on blowing out some of the old shares the next climb I imagine resistance will be tough looking at the options boards .
It probably wont but there is some heavy tax selling going on here . I must admit I have winners everywhere else but the energy and mining sectors I purchased in 14 and took a bath on like I have never taken in 40 years of investing . I am traumatized now to put stops in and I have never used them ever . The dollar is weakening a tad thats a start . I am not that great a accountant but they have 18 years of reserves here . They will be around we just have to worry about dilution but they have been saying they do not need to and the latest 8k about shares is just a normal renewal of a stop gap emergency measure . Lets hope so and buy some shares while there is fear if we believe it .
Keep buying oil stocks. Goldman Sacks predicts $45 oil by October. When you throw in the towel at $45 oil, I'll be there to buy from you. I am mostly on cash now...
Almost every company's board of directors is generous in terms of what they feel the executives are worth. You could argue that most executives are obscenely overpaid - bordering on a form of legalized theft. You can argue all you want. It wouldn't matter. If you don't feel it is deserved, look at it as another tax on a company's profits. In the case of PGH, the CEO was buying shares as late as last October - paying close to twice what they trade for now. If I was a PGH executive, I wouldn't be buying company stock on the open market.
It has value. It's just a matter of what that value is at any given time, and that's what makes this an interesting game - much more fun than playing craps, and there are more variables to consider. Will PGH go back to $5.50. If Nat Gas goes up to say $4.00, and WTI goes to $85, and the new NDP government doesn't do a lot of new, stupid things (higher corporate taxes, higher royalties, carbon taxes, more "union-friendly" legislation)... If these 3 things happen, I think you could see $5.50. Why else would I being willing to buy PGH later this summer at $2.30, if I didn't believe it "could" eventually go to $5.50?
For many of these smaller E&P companies, PGH among them, they have -ve cashflow below $75 oil. That means that long term, without their costs going down, or new equity coming in, they run out of borrowing capacity, and they can't drill enough to maintain their production level. They run into debt covenant issues, and have to sell assets. Yes they shouldn't be bleeding money out on dividends, but this illusion makes people think that they can afford to provide say 6% yield indefinitely - only works at ~$90 oil. If you don't believe in $90 oil, there's not many oil companies worth buying as investments - as a trading vehicle (I'm waiting for $2.30 on PGH).
I would say the shelf registration is a good thing - assuming they are successful. One of the biggest negatives is their current debt position. There's no way they can grow the oil sands business without bringing in new equity. The oil sands future revenue (based on 16,000 bll/day) is their main "bright spot", and at only say 20% of their production won't save them once the oil hedges run off, and if oil is only at $75/bll in 2017.
That is the long bet that we go back to 900-110 oil in 2016-2017. It is a bad bet and many will get burned. The hedges have keept the full effect of lower oil hitting them. If they were smart they would be selling as many hedge contacts now out two years. That said I think they made a mistake in not reducing the div to zero to pay off debt and fund cap ex from cash flow and let things sort out and put the div back in late 2017.
Very wise comment. Your best loss is you first loss. Have an exit strategy! I'm almost totally out of oil stocks except for naked OTM Puts (derivative positions) on a basket of oil stocks, and I don't expect many of my strikes to be hit.
You don't want to stay with PGH if oil doesn't recover to $80 before their hedges run out. The same is true to a greater or lesser extent with most of the oil & gas companies - especially those located in Alberta. The new Alberta NDP government that will be sworn in next week and they are a huge uncertainty. They have stated publicly that they want to raise corporate taxes and "review" the current royalty structure.
PGH is down - this is the best relative indicator. You want to look at you stock in the context of the price action of its peers. You also do this by using multiple time references - daily, weekly and so on.... and you do this analysis over different time periods. Personally, I expect oil to test $50 or lower in the next 2 - 3 months. No one has a crystal ball, but the oversupply of oil is getting worse, no better at the moment, so the easiest direction is down. I got out of PGH at ~ $3.25 a couple of weeks ago, and I'm looking to re-enter at ~ $2.30 at some point this summer. PGH isn't a total DOG, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it. It is one of 20 oil & oil service companies I actively track.
Not to get political, but my son spent 2 deployments in the Mideast, one in Iraq, on in Afghanistan.
He fought in the Iraq city of Ramadi. When ISIS took the city a few day's ago, My son was nearly in tears. A lot of blood and treasure was spent taking and holding that city, and it was all for nothing.
You think you will have a 10% divi with a junk stock at 2.00? good look my friend
They will issue more shares for Capex. Oil sands is heavy on costs going in. Production will last longer then fracked oil wells though. That said I am waiting till oil hedges come off and they get to 2nd or 3qrt reported financials so I can see the full effects of 50-70 oil on the BS and PL. I also don't see oil past 90 for 5-10 years. So oil bulls here ( peak oil nuts) will need to roll over and I don't see much here yet showing that but clear many have dumped in the last six months. Will look at buying when div yield is 10% * under 2.00)
Lower lows? For the last 6 months the data actually shows rising lows-- 12/8- 2.46, 1/29- 2.52, 3/16- 2.59, 5/22- 2.88
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I echo your sentiments ... I am in debt for every American who has put on a military uniform.
I salute them ~
I don't want to think about the over 20K I'm down. This weekend, I do want to think about those who gave and are still giving all for this country so people like me can make dumb mistakes and still be free. It's a sacrifice I don't have the capacity to comprehend, one that deserves more honor than it will ever get.