Definitely impressed with the number of exclusive products they have launched in recent weeks....was expecting some but not this many. Game of Thrones, Marvel, Doctor Who, Minecraft, Starcraft, etc.....all the licensing deals a company like Thinkgeek would want. From an investment perspective, exclusivity is the gamechanger because it no longer becomes just a race with Amazon. I look for good things out of gross margins in the future because it appears most of the exclusive products are among the bestsellers.
I bailed out of my play position at $19.95 (50% increase); still have some long shares, expecting that Langone and company are cleaning up the balance sheet in preparation for a sale. I think it's less than a year away now.
They definitely they have a direct line of communication with a large group of early adopters that should become even more valuable as things become only increasingly "gadgety" I forecast excellent things coming out of Geeklabs as 3D printing makes it only easier in the future to come up with rapid prototypes.
I was able to locate Thinkgeek merchandise at both my local ToysRUs and Target. It will be interesting to see how much wholesale revenue contributes to top line in Q4.
Also, it looks like those Star Trek Hoodies that launched in October are a homerun product....
I think they will earn around 7 million in 2014 which when you subtract out the cash on their balance sheet would give them a Price to Earnings of around 10.
There revenue is of much higher quality than it was two years ago at this time. They have started to figure out what products they can make money rather than chasing revenue growth just for the sake of revenue growth. I look for them to attempt to accelerate growth once again as the business appears to be operating much more efficiently.
Yeah......those numbers seem about right...wholesale will be a major wildcard for quarters to come. The up 290% for wholesale is clearly off a low base but I feel like the wholesale partnerships are still in the first inning. I think we will see them ramp the Sales and Marketing along with the Geeklabs spending quite a bit in 2014 as they push the pedal trying to expand their customer base and increase the number of exclusive products they offer. The stock begins to look pretty cheap quickly if they can show similar progress in 2014.
I wouldn't call it an awesome quarter, but it's incremental improvement on what they'd been doing up to now. Gross margin of 19% is definitely notably better. With the 9-month loss now totaling $5.3M, it looks like we can expect an overall neutral-to-profitable year assuming a decent Christmas quarter; Q412 had $4.6M profit from continuing operations. If we project top line growth and margin improvement, I could see $80M revenue, $20M gross profit, $10M expenses, for $10M pre-tax profit for the quarter, something like $5M for the year. Still small potatoes, but enough to make the business a going concern, and maybe attract a buyer.
Shareholder communications. Especially Katy. She will not speak to shareholders via phone or email - only institutions and analysts. She will not take questions from shareholders during conference calls. Show less elitism and arrogance and more humility.
30% revenue growth, huge margin improvement, continued progress on the wholesale business. People will take note when they see Thinkgeek is actually building a brand that contains many exclusive products....part e-commerce, part toy company. They have really done a good job of running a lean business while boosting top line. I believe this stock is just getting started as full year profitability seems to be very much in the cards in the immediate future.
While Q3 (to be announced soon) is traditionally weakest Q, we are now in Q4 which is usually strongest. The key is growth. They are in the right space. CIO has the right stuff and attitude. Is Katy right for the job? While she can count beans, does she have the vision and imagination and market savvy to take the company to the next level? She is a bit aloof when responding (or not responding) to investor requests. CMO - a lot of experience. Is he attuned to the market (geeks of all ages) and drive sales at high double digit rates - the next year will tell.