The moment the ecb starts its qe program the euro will tank.The ecb is lagging in such policies when compared to the boe and fed.portugal's bank crisis is a european contagion and they are on borrowed time.It is a question of when not if.The ecb (mario draghi) already said that they will do whatever it takes to save the euro but imho the problems that the eurozone is facing are beyond the control of the president of the ECB.The economic situation in many eurozone countries is still grim. And the political consequences of prolonged slumps are only just beginning to emerge.Thes euro crisis is moving from the periphery to the core.Besides all this the threat of deflation in europe is very high and that does not bode well for the euro either because the trend for most central banks to counteract deflation is to print money which they conveniently call it quantitative easing.Another geopolitical factor that could undermine the euro is the russia-ukraine conflict.If the eu impose tough sanctions against russia then russia will use their most powerful weapon i.e. energy and they will start selling energy to europe at higher prices;and that will have a severe impact on the already fragile economy.Draghi has no authority over the russian government and not that much influence over the domestic politics of France, Italy or Germany. Yet developments in all of these nations could yet reverse the progress in the eurozone that the ECB president did so much to engineer.
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Time to go long EUO for the long haul. Draghi just said the Euro has to drop for Europe to break out of it never ending recession. US economy is improving and dollar is definitely strengthening, EUO could go over $20 a share on Monday and hit $23 a share by mid - May. Europe now in a free fall while Dollar grow stronger.
The Euro has to fall for Europe to dig itself out of the worst recession (some say depression) in years. Don't see how the Europeans can compete with the falling Yen and weak Dollar if their currency doesn't fall. I mean its crazy to see European production fall as the Euro stays above $1.30. Should be down to $.10 or lower if Europe wants a rebound.
Europe going to cut rates due to crumbling economies. Euro to fall and possibly fall hard. Many think it should drop down to the 114 to 118 level. Its coming.
but can't figure out why its down in premarket trading. Germany economy in free fall or big slow down and everyone know Germany is the only country in Europe making a dime. If there is a rate cut next week the Euro will drop maybe to 125 level.. EUO should do very well so I'm holding long term.