Fair enough. Again, good luck, I am a trader too, but I have earmarked CLF as a potential investment... I have no idea what model you are using, but just realize that if IO prices somehow move higher overnight or into Tuesday, and CLF doesn't disappoint (let alone, "beat" expectations) then you're model can be tossed right out of the window. Where I come from, 5x average daily volume suggests that a new floor is in place, especially for a stock as hated as CLF. Stocks go up and down, but just know that CLF broke the 2year+ downtrend/channel on Friday, and a gap-up on Monday is anticipated.
understood. Thanks for the concern. I've been doing this a very long time. My model says 91% chance i'm right on this play. I'll take those odds.
I can't sleep nights holding stocks. I'm, "get in, get out, on to the next one" at high frequency.
glad you have a exit strategy, GL. I guess you are "hoping" for another dip to retest the 50dma... decent enough risk/reward play. Just know that a close above 6.35 on Monday on higher than average volume would imply a continuation pattern, but yes, there is a gap below, as we can all see... Thursday and Friday's volume was rather encouraging however for longs...
I will short at the open LOTS of shares. Will enjoy a 3.3% profit before the end of Tuesday. Stop loss is 12%. I will cover on Friday regardless of price. No options. Any more questions??
ooooh, another big talker. At what price will you short? At what price would you take profits? Where will you set your stop loss? Will you remain short into Tuesday's results? Will you hedge with calls? What strike? What expiry?
I'm going to keep it simple, and stay long, VERY long into ER/CC and beyond.
That is their current rating. Nothing prevents them from expanding this capacity when demand calls for it. Even if there are short term capacity issues it would be more profitable to sell as DRI versus standard pellets by a factor of at least 2-3.
I would tend to agree, in fact large hedge funds "smelling blood" probably loaded up on Calls as they exited their short positions late last week further exasperating the supply of shares available this week...we may be looking at a professionally orchestrated squeeze.....JMO
The mines are currently rated for 26 million tons. Given US contracts are for 22 million in 2015. How on earth is he going to sell another 10-20 million tons?
Have you been trading long? Do you know that Ackman's short on HLF is borrowed from long hedge funds? Do you know he said this himself. Yes a lot of these hedge funds like Connel and Casa are fronts for short hedge funds. Don't you think it is kind of murky that a fund such as Casablanca all of a sudden was able to buy a $200 million dollar position in CLF. But I digress you in your infinite wisdom already knows all this. That is why you are the biscuit man!
I believe part of his strategy is DRI. If they can work with the steel manufacturers they can sell another 10-20M tons. The benefit to the steel compsnies is reduced cost versus scrap. For cliffs, the benefit is easily a 2-3 times higher price for their pellets. With the CEO's background in steel, I believe he has the right connections and experience to make this happen.
Iron ores will go higher from here.
But it has nothing to do with the earthquake in Nepal.
By any measure, Nepal is a very poor and small country, its influence to the rest of the world is relatively insignificant.
I think not.
These "long hedge funds" are professional player, they are not about to make it easy for the shorts to cover.
With half of CLF's shares are shorted and you said "Cover should not be that difficult?
What you said defies logic , common sense, and rules.
more like $50 plus . You do the math. In China and India 62% Fe IO pellets are going for $100-$105/ton and 63%Fe Io pellets sell for $105-$117/ton plus Vet Tax. CLF's IO pellets are much PURER containing 67%-72% Fe .
By the way if the US operations are the only operations making money then would it be smart to reduce the global footprint and operate only in the US? What a mind blowing thought.