Long time follower of LGF, since at least 2007. Time flies.
Had closed all LGF positions last autumn, in the Mockingjay II frothiness. The final sell was around 500% return (!) Part of this was due to currency weirdness since originally bought in Canadian dollars, then sold in US.
But have now repurchased at 18's (despite US dollar strength). LGF is the definition of a cyclical glamor stock. Book value is what now--around $9?. People are going to be watching Dirty Dancing and T2 until the end of time. While there is a lot of content among competitors being churned out, not much of it is good quality. As seen in past, when there is a rocky economy, folks still go to the movies (a cheap night out and youth need a place away from parents), so some recession-protection. There is likely future growth for LGF through M&A, though I don't think Starz is good enough for them. I feel at some point LGF is going to shed mini-major label. Moderate-major?
There is a lot of good deals right now in equities, and some that have much better dividends.
Pipeline on IMDB looks a bit thin in LGF future feature releases, but have seen worse times in the last 10 years.
Does LGF still have hostile takeover poison pills?
Dead Money. I am totally out. I hung in there since 2009, but decided to sell before the latest ER. Sold at $25. Wasn't lucky to sell back in November at $41. As Joe said, without a significant catalyst, it is time to focus capital in other areas. Management gets paid too much for very lackluster results and a lot of duds that they have delivered at the Box Office. Management deserves to feel the pain in their own wallets. Burns on CNBC didn't understand the reaction to teh ER by the market. The dude needs to wake up and smell the coffee.
The whole media sector was repriced. IF you were going to put on strong sell on it you should've done it at 41. You might be a little late to the party at this point. I will sit back and collect dividends and watch the next chapter play out. GL
Bananas - would like to see it get back to 41 but unless we get a significant catalyst (launch of a successful franchise, fantastic ER, or a buyout) we will most like be treading water collecting a dividend for 2 years.
Price target of 25 in 12 months is not good. If it gets to 25 in 12 months I'm still down Big, like many who have been long for a few years.
Looks like they're timing them around movie releases. Lockout on buyback after ER ended today. If they have another washout like they did on Friday the buyback won't do a thing.
Last week LGF had 1 investor presentation scheduled this year on June 1st. Today they now have 6 starting on Feb 24th with 3 others in March and 1 in June and 1 in Aug. Plus 4 of them are Burns.
on Monday Feb. 8 issued a detailed report on LGF. It mentioned the companies poor quarterly results that were reported on Feb. 4, and its prospects going forward. It rated LGF a "strong buy", with a 12 month price target of $25. That's a considerable upside from the current price.
Agreed. Historically they have done a pretty good job with book titles as have other studios. A good story is key as obvious as that sounds. So buying a proven story gives them one step up from the get go.
LGF has come down enough in my eyes, its got to stop sometime. There is a problem when some people are too positive and negative. The market takes these extremes, but investors should not. It could go down a little more, but if one was to start a new position, it is getting close to one.
And, wasn't he the star in that $100 million flop Tomorrow Land from Disney? This guy is box office poison.
saw the rest of the list of movies coming out for liongate 2016 ,,i don't see any film i want to watch ,don't see anybig block buster hit coming for the rest of 2016, seethis stock crashing furtherdow probably below $10 in 2016
It will be interesting to see what they do with the rights they purchased for the Magic Tree Hiuse series.
How do I get a thumbs down when I said the same things all the thumbs up people said?? Are you guys still mad at me because I told you to sell/short when this was near all time highs and you didn't listen? Sorry........should have listened.........
Good post. I think that there is a lot of value here too. Who makes and owns the long term rights to Orange is the New Black? Yep-LGF. LGF combined with STRZA could easily become a real NFLX competitor. Malone and Burns are super smart and know this landscape.
"Deepwater Horizon" looks like a winner. I'll be seeing it. Probably will even be a hit in London.
I think they will do alright with Allegiant, Now You See Me 2, Deepwater Horizon, The Shack, and even possibly Boo - A Madea Halloween.